BIG CATCH: Geelani was arrested under POTA for allegedly funding terrorist outfits; (below) his son-in-law Iftikar was also arrested

Ironies seldom fail to keep their date with Kashmir. Just when the separatists All Party Hurriyat Conference was getting ready to felicitate its moderate face Mirwaiz Omar Farooq on tying the nuptial knot, it got the startling news that its most vocal and staunchly pro-Pakistan leader, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, had been arrested under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) on June 9.

Cover Story

THE FALLOUT What the arrests mean for... HURRIYAT CONFERENCE: Another nail in its coffin; Geelani's exit will make it even more irrelevant. CENTRE: The lukewarm bandh to protest against Geelani's arrest is a pointer that its strategy is working. MODERATE SEPARATISTS: This marginalised lot may feel encouraged to participate in the polls. ELECTIONS: A vocal opponent gone; the October polls may succeed. INCRIMINATING EVIDENCE: Cash seized during the raid at Geelani's residence

Geelani's arrest was sudden but not entirely unexpected. It is part of Delhi's game plan, reworked since senior Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone's assassination in Srinagar on May 21, to neutralise the growing influence of the pro-Pakistan lobby within Kashmir. A moderate, Lone was emerging as a rallying point for separatists who were willing to break bread with Delhi. After his killing, the moderates retreated into a shell and hardliners like Geelani took centrestage in the group. "Neutralising Geelani is the key to undo what Pakistan achieved by Lone's elimination," says a Srinagar-based intelligence official.

The Centre's revised strategy aims to make the Hurriyat completely irrelevant in the run-up to the polls, thus taking the sting out of its anti-election tirade. If the arrests earlier this year of JKLF chief Yasin Malik and Aziz Sheikh blunted the Hurriyat's anti-election thrust, Geelani's arrest has crippled it.

With most of the Hurriyat leadership out of action, the field will be wide open for separatist leaders outside the conglomerate to come to the fore and occupy the anti-National Conference political space in the Valley. As the sole CPI(M) MLA in Kashmir, Yousaf Tarigami, says, "The moderate secessionists will now have more breathing space." Delhi is hoping that Jammu & Kashmir Democratic Front Party leader Shabbir Shah participates in the October elections.

However, it is still not clear whether Geelani's exit would spur the moderates in the Hurriyat to assert themselves. "Delhi is mistaken that it can create doves in the Hurriyat by caging the hawks," Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat told India Today. Hurriyat leaders, despite being rattled by the arrest, are still unwilling to participate in the coming elections and there are slim chances of moderates like Mirwaiz Farooq breaking rank. He is under pressure from his family to stay clear of the fray and will be going on an extended honeymoon to the US.

A hardboiled Jamaat-e-Islami ideologue who insisted on a strident no-Pakistan-no-dialogue line, Geelani has been a father figure for militant outfits in the Valley, particularly the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen. "He was virtually running an extension counter of the ISI in Kashmir," says A.K. Suri, DGP, Jammu and Kashmir Police. More than ideological support, it was Geelani's alleged role as the hawala money pipeline for militant outfits that led security agencies to his trail. "There is a plethora of evidence for a watertight criminal case against Geelani," says K. Rajendra, IG, Jammu & Kashmir Police.

Geelani is the second Hurriyat leader arrested under POTA for allegedly channelling funds through hawala for terrorist activities. Three months ago, JKLF's Malik was linked to the smuggling of $100,000 into India from Pakistan through Nepal. But unlike the violent protests that followed Malik's arrest, the public response to the crackdown against Geelani was surprisingly muted. Even though Islamabad said that Geelani's arrest "exhibits India's utter disregard for the fundamental rights and liberties of Kashmiris", there was no spontaneous protest when the intelligence and income-tax officials raided his house. The Hurriyat reacted by terming the arrest "politically motivated", besides calling a bandh in protest.

But the bandh call evoked lukewarm response. Perhaps the romanticism of the political struggle of the Jamaat leader-who unabashedly supports Pakistan and yet has no qualms about drawing pension from the Indian state as a former MLA-had been shattered by the recovery of disproportionate assets from his residence.

If Geelani's credibility among ordinary Kashmiris has waned, the conflict between him and his party has come out in the open in recent months. Moderate elements in the Jamaat are trying to steer themselves away from the armed struggle and join the political mainstream. A significant shift came in March this year when Jamaat's chief G.M. Bhat refused to toe the Hurriyat's line on boycotting the October polls. The Geelani-Jamaat altercation had coincided with the emergence of the pro-dialogue voice within the Hurriyat.

The Government is also hoping that Geelani's exit from the Valley would encourage breakaway Hizb commander Abdul Majid Dar to pick up the lost threads of an aborted cease-fire in July 2000 and isolate the Pakistan-based Hizb chief Syed Salahuddin. Lone's assassination had stymied efforts by the intelligence agencies to prop up Dar as a militant leader willing to renounce violence.

At another level, the Government is working to remove the misgivings that Kashmiris have in the election process. People are not sure if Delhi has the will to conduct a free and fair election. Supreme Court advocate Ashok Bhan, who has been involved in engaging separatists in a dialogue, feels that the first step in this direction would be the removal of Farooq Abdullah. With memories of the large-scale rigging of the 1987 polls still fresh, Bhan feels that people will not believe that the election has been free and fair if Farooq continues as chief minister. He suggests that the state should be put under governor's rule for at least two months before the elections.

Officials say such a step seems a near certainty. Farooq has almost accepted the inevitability of his exit and is negotiating a deal with the Centre. Perhaps that is why he has delayed the election of his son Omar Abdullah as NC president.

Having extracted a commitment from Pakistan on stopping infiltration, the Government's unfolding strategy hinges on a stepped-up offensive against the militants in the next few months. But whether that would facilitate a credible election hinges on the Centre's ability to get the separatists to participate in the polls as also on its success to create a measure of confidence among Kashmiris. As a step in this direction, Vajpayee is expected to visit the state next month. Geelani's arrest may have removed one obstacle but there are still a few more on the road to enduring peace in Kashmir.