FORWARD LOOKING: (Top) A new approach to mixing unconventional hues for home furnishings; international styles are quickly picked up in India (centre); Sabharwal (below)

In 1989, 20-something fashion student Harleen Sabharwal couldn't conceal her excitement about attending Italian designer Romeo Gigli's fashion forecasting workshop in Delhi. What she met with, though, was a volley of smirks from her fashion frat pals. Delhi-based designer and friend J.J. Vallaya was one among the several sceptics. The fashion-inclined attended design classes, they all insisted. What could possibly come out of hanging out at trend-forecasting workshops? Sabharwal's answer then didn't stretch beyond her eagerness to learn about how trends got translated into fashion. Now, all she need do is point at her designation. She is a professional trend forecaster. Her bread and butter involves learning about international design, fabric, silhouette and colour trends and then adapting them to conceptualise collections for brands like Raymond's Park Avenue and Easies.

In an increasingly crowded retail market, trend-forecasting-the expertise of sieving and adapting international trends-is not just a welcome design ally, it's well on the way to becoming indispensable to the design creation process.

"Fashion trends have started coming to India directly from Paris and Italy, that's why you often see a broad uniformity in colour, fabric and technology amidst diverse brands. The only difference now is who first introduces these trends here and is, therefore, able to capitalise on the newness," says Sabharwal who believes that fashion is 99 per cent research and 1 per cent creativity. That may very well be the most immediate reason for trend-forecasting taking off in India in 2002, but its origins really can be traced to the 1980s export boom.

That was the time when American and European brands began looking Indiawards for fabric sourcing. A few export houses like Delhi's Trendsetters and Mumbai's Texport Syndicate did a spot of far-sighted thinking. "Why not do homework on seasonal international trends and then give these labels workable design concepts, thereby grabbing even larger orders?" they thought. That's how a handful of Indians began travelling to trend fairs like Premiere Vision and Texworld in Europe. The scenario they faced was fascinating.

SHOW CASE: The Ministry of Textiles' garment fairs let manufacturers pick up ideas

Trend-forecasting is serious business in the West with styles being determined up to a year in advance. Taken into account are the impact of influential factors like psychology and environmental issues as well as New-Age factors like advertising and growing openness about sex to paint a broad framework of societal preferences and penchants.

The impressiveness of the mechanics of forecasts doesn't mean that international trends are gospel in India though. Bold stripes, for instance, are very hot abroad this year but Indian brands are sceptical about the reaction to them. Also, Indian manufacturers often don't have the required infrastructure for producing certain sophisticated fabrics and designs.

In Delhi, Trendvision, a trend-forecasting and design agency, works in close coordination with weavers, fabric technologists and fashion professionals to develop design ideas and products conforming to international trends. Fabric developers, garment manufacturers and designers then pick up these forecasts and directions. In February, on the invitation of the Union Ministry of Textiles, Trendvision set up a Trends Forum at Pragati Maidan that depicted fashion trends for Spring/Summer 2003.

Raymond used trend-forecasting services to turn around the image of Park Avenue from a middle-age consumer group (35-45) to a more youthful and colourful brand. Now, it wants to stretch trend-forecasting further into making consumers aware about current and future designs in casual and formal wear. Provogue's penchant for polynosic fabric is a result of keeping tabs on international tenors. Easies, a Rs 45 crore smart casuals men's brand, has been subscribing to various Italian fashion-forecasting services for the past few years. "With MNCs coming into the Indian market and the increasing competitiveness, we felt that it had become crucial to stay constantly updated on global design trends," says Hemant Jain, director of the group.

At Morarjee Brembana Limited, a 50-50 joint venture between Manifattura Di Valle Brembana, Italy, and Morarjee Goculdas Spinning and Weaving Co, India, fashion-forecasting is a legacy of the Italian half. It is accentuated further by the fact that international players like Paul Smith are among the clients for their fabric range. Says Savitha Rao, marketing head, Morarjee Brembana Limited: "Since garment buying is a discretionary purchase, helping our clients understand the mood of the customer through trend-forecasting becomes even more key."

Trend-forecasting is also seeping into allied businesses like cosmetics and jewellery design as well as separate fields like interior design. For jewellery label Intergold, it is a key function of their merchandising and product development wing. Local and foreign designers work in collaboration to formulate designs that combine international and local predilections. Cosmetics and hair-care brands in India like L'Oreal, Keune and Sunsilk also employ in-house style-forecasting teams. Lakme has a technological and marketing tie-up with Intercos, an Italian manufacturer of cosmetics and a surveyor of trends.

Still trend-forecasting remains more of a retail mantra. Neeta Sanghvi, whose trade magazine IMAGES Business of Fashion brings out trend-forecast features for manufacturers who can't make it to international fairs, points out that Indian retail garment companies have more to lose than individual fashion designers were they to ignore international trends. On the other hand, Mumbai designer Shivani Tijori insists that her fraternity has started keeping up with international trends through magazines and the Internet. As for designer Vallaya, he isn't smirking any longer. Last seen, he was busy checking out the trend forecasts for 2003.