Democracy, by its very nature, is given to fractiousness.India—once described as a "functioning anarchy"-is naturally prone to sharply conflicting pulls and pressures, not least on account of its sheer size and diversity. Fortunately, uniformity and Indian nationhood have never been co-terminous; the country has always muddled along-chaotically. Yet, 55 years into independence, India is confronted by a series of schisms that indicate a dangerous emotional polarisation. The country, it would seem, cannot agree on fundamentals.

This is the disconcerting conclusion of the India Today-ORG-MARG Mood of the Nation poll conducted among 17,776 registered voters in 98 parliamentary constituencies spread across India. The results indicate a polarisation along geographical, social and religious lines. They also show a worrying degree of popular indifference to the major issues of the day. Coupled with falling approval ratings for Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the inability of Leader of the Opposition Sonia Gandhi to climb the popularity ladder and an indecisive outcome in the event of a snap poll, the nation seems confused and at odds with itself.

The backdrop is a growing mood of pessimism. The number of those who feel the quality of their lives has improved in the past has fallen by as much as 5 per cent in six months. Today, those who feel their lives have worsened constitute 26 per cent, up 2 per cent from the January poll. The sense of dejection is particularly noticeable in the South and East.

It may not be possible to directly link the prevailing despondency with the larger emotional turmoil India is witnessing but it does provide a context. An economic downturn, both real and perceived, induces a degree of recklessness that would be difficult to imagine in moments of optimism.

That India is witnessing an emotional upheaval is evident in the perception of the bloody riots that unsettled Gujarat in March this year. While 34 per cent feel the Narendra Modi Government should have been dismissed for its inability to stop the butchery, a staggering 38 per cent have no view on the subject. Considering Gujarat is in the eye of a political storm, the high degree of indifference doesn't bode well for India's democracy. It indicates a truncation of mind caused by the imperatives of daily existence. On the positive side, however, the indifference suggests that divisive communal issues are not going to shape the national agenda, despite attempts by motivated pressure groups. This point needs to be stressed because-contrary to conventional wisdom-passive support for Modi's dismissal is most marked among the highly educated.

What gives the Gujarat issue a more intriguing dimension is the feeling that while Modi is culpable, he is not responsible for the riots. Indeed, most of India-particularly in the North and West-is inclined to pin the blame for the riots on Muslim extremists and those who torched the bogeys of the Sabarmati Express in Godhra. Muslims may have been at the receiving end of the riots but they are also being blamed for it. The over-dramatised view that what took place in Gujarat was a pogrom-involving state complicity-finds acceptance only among Muslims.

There is an additional complication-Gujarat versus India. The feeling in the rest of India on the Modi Government's culpability is fiercely contested in Gujarat. The poll of chief ministerial performance indicates quite vividly that Modi's popularity graph in Gujarat has skyrocketed in the past six months. He is now one of the most popular chief ministers in the country. If this sentiment translates into votes, the BJP is a clear favourite to win the forthcoming Gujarat election.

Not that there is an automatic translation of ideological positions into voting intentions. There is a widespread approval of the Government's handling of the face-off with Pakistan and the nuclearisation of India still commands a staggering 70 per cent approval. There is also a reinforcement of hawkish perceptions, with 68 per cent perceiving Pakistan as an enemy and some 45 and 46 per cent in the North and West advocating a military attack on terrorist camps in Pakistan. However, the shrill combativeness is less evident in the South and East, suggesting a significant regional divergence.

Curiously, these expressions of gung-ho nationalism have not improved the BJP's electoral prospects. Compared to six months ago, there is a small 0.2 per cent increase in support for the BJP and its allies. However, the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system have led to a smaller number of seats for the ruling coalition. Significantly, the BJP's losses are mainly in the North, the precise area where nationalist sentiment is most intense.

The absence of a total correlation between issues and voting actually serves as a safety valve. In the past six months, communalism and Pakistan-sponsored terrorism have grabbed the national headlines. On these issues there is a definite Hindu-Muslim rift. Take the on-again-off-again Ayodhya dispute. On this issue, there seems to be a hardening of stand in favour of building a Ram temple immediately-43 per cent were in favour six months ago, today it is 47 per cent. Even among Congress voters, 43 per cent want the temple now. Predictably, this is not a solution favoured by Muslims. Equally, support for the temple isn't as enthusiastic in the South and East as in the North and West.

Likewise, while 70 per cent of Hindus regard Pakistan as an enemy-a rare expression of national unity-only 37 per cent of Muslims do so. Indeed, 49 per cent of Muslims have a rather charitable view of Pakistan as an estranged brother, a friend and a future ally. What complicates matters is that among Muslims who are aware, Mohammed Ali Jinnah is regarded as a hero, along with Mahmud of Ghazni and Aurangzeb. The weight of Hindu opinion treats these historical figures as villains.

These are worrying signs and pointers to the emotional gulf between the majority community and the most significant minority. Nor is this rift a persisting relic. The poll indicates that it is the youth (18 to 24-year-olds) that is more aware and belligerent than their elders. This raw, untapped energy is yet to find focus. A positive outlet may take India to new heights; in the wrong hands, it could plunge the country in civil strife. A divided India can swing either way.