 |
|
ON THE LOOK OUT: Post-Swaminarain
attack, police commandos patrol Bhopal's Birla temple
|
After two
decades of organised violence in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, India has
learned to live with terror. But last week, the country was rudely greeted
by a new face of terror as jehadis mowed down innocents, including women
and infants, at the Swaminarain temple in Gandhinagar. Coming just seven
months after the Godhra massacre, the latest killings make it amply clear
that jehadis have decided to open fronts against soft targets in states
other than Kashmir. So what can India do?
The key lies in finding out about such plots before they are executed,
taking ruthless steps to crack down on terrorists and disrupting their
organisations within the country. That calls for extraordinary intelligence
capability. "Terrorism is a global phenomenon and India is doing
all it can to protect the soft targets," says A.S. Dulat, former
raw chief and adviser to the PMO on Kashmir. "But it's not easy to
get specific intelligence to prevent terrorist attacks. Otherwise 9/11
would not have happened."
|
COUNTER STRATEGY
INTELLIGENCE: Improve coordination
between the intelligence agencies and state police and increase
surveillance of madarsas in border areas.
DIPLOMACY: Ask US to put additional
pressure on Islamabad to dismantle the entire terrorist infrastructure
in Pakistan.
COVERT OPERATIONS: Use special forces
to strike at terrorist camps in Pakistan.
WAR: Last resort after all options
are exhausted.
|
 |
|
CHECK MATE: Black Cats practise
strategies to counter terrorist and hostage situations at the National
Security Guard training centre at Manesar in Haryana
|
Shortly after the 1999 Kargil war, the NDA Government woke up to the
urgent need for what is termed "actionable intelligence". The
Group of Ministers set up to examine the Kargil Review Committee report
suggested setting up of nodal cells that would collect, collate and disseminate
intelligence in order to prevent any threat to national security. That
saw the setting up of the Joint Task Force on Intelligence (JTFI) and
the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) late last year whose sole focus is to tackle
terrorism. The two groups are headed by Intelligence Bureau Special Director
A.K. Doval, who reports to the home secretary and the IB director. The
JTFI's role is to provide "action-oriented" inputs to the states,
particularly those bordering Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh.
Since the JTFI's formation, Deputy Prime Minister and Union Home Minister
L.K. Advani has held meetings with state chief ministers to emphasise
the need of a nodal agency that caters to their intelligence needs on
the terrorism front. MAC has a counter-intelligence role, where senior
officials of the IB, the raw and the Defence Intelligence Agency share
information on global terrorist activities.
India at present has the National Security Guard as a counter-terrorist
force with additional operational role in anti-hijacking, hostage situations
and protection of select VIPs. However, in normal circumstances, anti-terrorist
operations are carried out by special branches or anti-terrorist cells
of the state police on the basis of the IB or local intelligence reports.
The real problem lies in greater co-ordination between the Central agencies
and their state counterparts to act with alacrity and clarity on the information
being gathered.
K.P.S. Gill, former Punjab DGP and security adviser to Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi, says while it is impossible for the state to guard
everything, coordination between the Centre and the state police is vital
as the terrorist network is spread all over the country. "During
the militancy days in Punjab, the IB and the state police had an informal
coordination committee so that actionable intelligence could be exchanged.
We had even posted officers in Kashmir with the help of the local state
police to gather Punjab-oriented intelligence," he says. Gill believes
it is not necessary that terrorists who planned the temple attack be based
in Gujarat. "They could be based in Kashmir or even Pakistan,"
he says. Gill, however, is not in favour of setting up a dedicated anti-terrorism
force as it would not be cost effective and perhaps not work in India
as law and order is a state subject.
In the wake of the Akshardham killings, the spectre of threats to softer
targets is worrying security agencies. Senior government officials admit
that with Navratras approaching and devotees thronging temples all over
the country, the threat of a suicide bomber will be difficult to counter.
"It is impossible to screen thousands of people who visit places
of worship during festivals," says a Delhi Police official.
At a meeting held at the BJP headquarters in Delhi after the attack
that was attended by Advani and other senior ministers, it was felt that
the spread of unregistered madarsas in India was a cause of acute concern.
The issue was raised by Union Human Resource Development Minister Murli
Manohar Joshi. But it was agreed that any move to regulate madarsas would
require the cooperation of state governments. Another suggestion was to
give immediate consideration to the proposal to prepare a national register
of citizens. The option of action against terrorist camps in Pakistan
was not referred to specifically, but many believed the time had come
to make it the only item on the agenda.
Their reluctance was understandable. The larger picture has never been
easy to collate. There is a clear understanding that the major internal
security threat lies in the form of ideological indoctrination and weapons
training imparted in the terror camps in Pakistan. But any move to strike
these camps would mean exercising the military option which, experts believe,
should be used only after all other means have been exhausted.
Among the more viable options for India is to use the international
coalition against terrorism, spearheaded by the US, to exert more pressure
on Pakistan to stop supporting jehadi groups hostile to India and take
steps to thwart them. After a lull, the US these days is more receptive
to India's call. When US Secretary of State Colin Powell called up External
Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha to express his condolences on the Swaminarain
carnage on September 25, he made it a point to mention that he found the
terrorists' effort to escalate communal tensions in the midst of the Jammu
and Kashmir polls rather intriguing. In his meeting with the visiting
US Assistant Secretary of State for South-Asia, Christina B. Rocca, on
the same day, Sinha conveyed that the "fidayeen" nature of the
attack, the violence perpetrated and the weapons used pointed towards
the involvement of the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed, which
are known to have the backing of the Pakistani Government.
Sinha's basic message to the Americans was that simply designating Pakistan-based
jehadi groups as terrorist outfits wasn't enough and the US should push
Islamabad into dismantling the entire terrorist infrastructure. India
has no options but to keep the pressure on Pakistan, particularly when
its President, Pervez Musharraf, continues to make hostile statements.
At the UN General Assembly in New York in September, Musharraf played
the Gujarat card and his permanent representative to UN, Munir Akram,
even claimed there were 3,000 communal incidents in India this year. This
was seen by Delhi as a deliberate attempt to fan the communal situation
in India and exploit the sentiments of the minority community in Gujarat.
The connection of Pakistan-based jehadis in the temple attack is evident
from the fact that the terrorists used Arges grenades, which were made
in Pakistan during the early 1970s in collaboration with an Austrian company.
Arges grenades were also used in the 1993 Bombay blasts and the December
13 attack on Parliament. Says former IB director Arun Bhagat: "For
India, the period of pacificity is gone. It cannot wait indefinitely for
Pakistan to change. Islamabad's approach and determination to tackle terrorism
is ambiguous and smacks of double standards."
In the circumstances, India may have little choice but to examine the
military option in order to force Pakistan to mend its ways. Before this,
it can start covert counter-terrorist operations inside Pakistan. It is
tricky game but one designed to send Pakistan the message that if it continued
to bleed the country, India could pay it back in the same coin. But given
the current climate against exporting or supporting terror against other
countries, it may backfire.
For a full-scale military operation, India will have to increase its
force levels in comparison to Pakistan. It will also have to develop its
capability that allows pin-pointed strikes and covert operations inside
the enemy territory. This could even mean sending special forces across
the Line of Control and obliterating terrorist training camps in Pakistan-Occupied
Kashmir. In short, a declaration of war. It is always an option that India
can exercise but it must be done only when all other avenues are ineffective
because both countries are now nuclear capable.
|