UP IN ARMS: Benazir's supporters protest against her disqualification from polls

Despite less than a week to go before the October 10 elections in Pakistan, speculation is rife about whether they will actually take place. The public, conditioned by the past, is unconvinced that the military would want to hand over power to civilian politicians. This insecurity may explain to some extent the lacklustre lead-up to the balloting-the fifth in the past 14 years-which, according to President General Pervez Musharraf, "will change the destiny of Pakistan". The turnout in the 1997 elections was a low 37 per cent; things may be worse this time round.

More than the misgivings about polls, the reason for disenchantment with the electoral exercise may be the feeling that politicians are venal and that democracy has not delivered much. On the other hand, a recent BBC-commissioned survey indicated that over 40 per cent of people do not believe the Government's repeated assertions that polls would be free and fair. Newspapers too have been reporting that government officials and intelligence agencies are manoeuvring the political process to obtain an "acceptable" result.

NEIGHBOURS

WHO COULD BE PAKISTAN'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER MAKHDOOM AMIN FAHIM: Head of Benazir's Pakistan Peoples Party, he is an urbane feudal from Sindh. Pros: Supports reconciliation with the military. Cons: Depends on Benazir whom Musharraf distrusts. MIAN MOHAMMAD AZHAR: Head of the breakaway Pakistan Muslim League(Q), Azhar is the frontrunner because of military backing. Pros: Clean, blunt, can counter Sharif. Cons: Not suave or dynamic. FAROOQ AHMED LEGHARI: The former president heads the minuscule Milat Party but as part of the National Alliance has military backing. Pros: Known entity for the military. Cons: May be too much of his own man. IMRAN KHAN: Cricketer-turned-politician, he heads Tehreek-e-Insaf and is a vocal campaigner against corruption. Pros: Clean, dynamic and a new face. Cons: Offended the military by accusing it of rigging the elections. ZUBEIDA JALAL: Unassuming educationist from Baluchistan shot into prominence as Musharraf's education minister. But can she get the votes? ILAHI BAKHSH SOOMRO: Veteran Muslim League politician from Sindh, he was speaker of the National Assembly during Sharif's two tenures and is acceptable to all parties. Urbane and cool-headed, he has military backing. But it may mean alienating Azhar and Punjab.

The Government, for instance, is openly backing the newly formed Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam), which comprises most of the former leading lights of Nawaz Sharif's party, the PML (Nawaz). Various parties opposed to Musharraf, including Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), have alleged that their candidates have been pressured to stand down in favour of the PML(Q) candidates. Besides, the final list of the PML(Q) candidates in Punjab was reportedly drawn up in the house of Governor Lt-General (retired) Khalid Maqbool, a prominent organiser in Musharraf's stage-managed rallies before the presidential referendum in May.

The perception that the PML(Q) is a king's party is revealed by the BBC survey. Although respondents rated the PPP as the largest parliamentary group that would emerge after the polls, a majority also said that PML(Q) chief Mian Azhar would probably be the next prime minister, reflecting the opinion that the PPP would never be allowed to come to power.

Off record, Government officials are candid. "We will not allow those who are against the Government reforms to take over," a high-ranking bureaucrat recently told journalists. In government-speak, "reforms" are equivalent to Musharraf's new rules of business under which the military will be given a direct say in overseeing the Parliament through the National Security Council. "Not allowing" Opposition candidates to take over implies active support for those who have endorsed the Government's moves. These include the motley collection of parties under the banner of the National Alliance, of which former president Farooq Ahmed Leghari is a top leader, the anti-PPP Sindh Democratic Alliance, and even the secular NWFP-based Awami National Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), both of which have welcomed Musharraf's anti-religious extremism drive.

So pervasive has been the Government interference that even Imran Khan, long considered a Government favourite, has become a vocal critic. "We are contesting the polls not so much against our political rivals as the Government which is backing them," he said on TV. The estrangement came about after Imran declined Musharraf's entreaties to join hands with pro-Government parties like the PML(Q).

The two main opposition parties, the PPP (contesting under the banner of PPP Parliamentarians) and the PML(N), also accuse the Government of pre-poll rigging. They have been hit the hardest, with both Benazir and Sharif disqualified from contesting. "Our candidates are being harassed and we are discriminated against on the government-controlled electronic media," says PPP Secretary General Reza Rabbani. "This is not a level playing field."

Though the Government denies the accusations, in private officials agree. "After we are through," says a high-ranking bureaucrat, "we will have no need to rig anything. Everything will fall into place." It's this fear that has raised the hackles of the European Union monitors already in the country, with a leaked EU document questioning the impartiality of the Government in the run-up to the elections. But in a stern admonishment, the Foreign Office told the monitors not to "prejudge the elections". The Government may have a point-it really has no way of ensuring the results it wants. With global interest focused on the polls and with the Government having invited foreign observers, blatant rigging is unlikely.

With the new demarcation of constituencies, previous elections are also no guide to the strength of veteran candidates. Besides, there is no telling how the war in Afghanistan and Musharraf's US-backed anti-Al-Qaida campaign will affect the electoral chances of the religious parties. These parties have not done too well in the past polls, but the anti-US sentiment may garner them more votes this time in the conservative NWFP and Baluchistan belt.

Now all that the Government can do is hope for favourable results. It's likely, and perhaps ideal for the military, that no party gains a clear majority. Parties dependent on coalitions for a majority in Parliament will remain beholden to Musharraf and, hence, the military. Even this is no guarantee for the army. As General Zia-ul-Haq discovered in 1988, even puppet prime ministers like M.K. Junejo can assert themselves if a Parliament exists. Therein lies Musharraf's biggest problem. No matter who enters Parliament, the real tussle for power has just begun.