What would happen if the world's largest delta disappeared? Or the largest mangrove-tiger eco-system? These may not seem like matters of immediate concern and of importance only to debators at global seminars on sustainable development. Think again. In question is an entire subcontinent that may drastically change-very soon-and threaten lives and lifestyles.

HUNTED GROVE: A massive increase in population since 1770 and the resultant developmental activity is the biggest cause of deforestation in the Sunderbans

If a UN-sponsored study conducted by the School of Oceanographic Studies (SOS) at Kolkata's Jadavpur University is to be believed, large parts of India along the eastern coast may be severely affected as early as 2020 because the Sunderbans-the world's largest delta and mangrove gene pool that straddles the region-is on the verge of destruction.

The fallout, it is predicted, is not just wide-ranging but frightening. While the rising sea level and soil erosion would submerge large swathes of land rendering thousands homeless, Kolkata and other areas on the coastline would be under constant threat of cyclones, gales and storms. The diverse marine life-river sharks, red crabs, shrimps, snakes-uniquely adapted to the saline water would be threatened, drastically affecting the food chain. Entire fisheries would be washed out and consumption of prawns alone cut by at least 40 per cent. The disappearance of the largest carbon sink in the region would increase global warming and ultimately change the climate of entire south-east Asia. All these portents point to the fact that a human ecosystem may not eventually be sustainable in the Sunderbans.

DEATH KNELL: Vanishing mangroves are worsening the impact of cyclones in Orissa

"This is a conflict between conservation and development," says Sugato Hazra, SOS director who is spearheading the three-year study sponsored by the Union Ministry of Forests and Environment and Winrock International, a US-based NGO. Although the Sunderbans was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1984, conservation efforts over the years have focused mainly on the Royal Bengal Tiger. Pranabesh Sanyal, additional principal chief conservator of forests, West Bengal, disagrees, saying the tiger project is only a flagship and not representative of other conservation efforts in the area.

The protests notwithstanding, protection of the mangrove gene pool has never been a priority for the development lobby. The Sunderbans is one of the least progressive areas in the state and among the most populated. Since the British began the resettlement of tribals in the area in 1770, the population has risen by 200 per cent to nearly 4.3 million. "Higher population means more development, which ultimately means greater deforestation," explains Kumud Ranjan Naskar of the Indian Council for Agricultural Research.

ORISSA'S MANGROVES

LOST CAUSE As illegal prawn farms run by the state's elite eat into the mangroves, their extinction seems imminent At first glance, the Mahanadi delta in coastal Orissa seems picture perfect-a maze of rivers and creeks cutting enchanting swathes through the mangroves. But the beauty is only skin deep. The mangroves that appear lush and dense form only a narrow strip. Though pillaging for fuel wood and fodder has been continuing for years now, the severest threat comes from the illegal prawn farms-nearly 10,000 hectares of mangroves come under prawn farms along the coast. "The mangroves' disappearance is mankind's loss," says Biswajit Mohanty of the Wildlife Society of Orissa, who has been fighting a protracted legal battle to save these forests from extinction. It's not an easy fight. Court proceedings drag on inexplicably, helping the pillaging to continue. And though the supercyclone that caused immense destruction in 1999 increased awareness about saving the mangroves-natural barriers against cyclones-no long-term effects are visible. Visits by Central teams have stopped and action plans for preservation are gathering dust. Meanwhile, the area under the mangroves is shrinking at an alarming rate and is down to 215 sq km from 700 sq km in the 1970s. More disconcerting is the irretrievable loss to biodiversity. Though Orissa boasted at least 65 of 73 mangrove species, some like Rhizophora kanikens may have been lost. "Human greed is to be blamed," says Anup Nayak, divisional forest officer of Rajnagar division, under which fall the Bhittarkanika and the Mahanadi delta accounting for nearly 185 sq km of the state's mangroves. Surveillance in these areas is lax given the topography, and so allows illegal prawn farmers to clean out the forests. With effluents from prawn ponds polluting the already fragile ecology, the environmental consequences are near fatal. However, the easy money these farms provide is a strong lure for the state's bureaucrats and politicians who reportedly reap rich profits. Little wonder then that the Government is unable to take punitive action. An effective strength of 35 forest guards to oversee 4,000 sq km area doesn't help. Some money is perfunctorily spent to raise new plantations-Rs 41 lakh last year and Rs 35 lakh the year before-but the mangrove cover continues to shrink. New plantations are quickly taken over by prawn farms. Which is why the current plan to raise mangroves in 3,000 hectares does not raise expectations. In the third year, no more than 600 hectares have been covered and a sizeable chunk has already been reclaimed, with the judiciary seemingly ineffectual in ridding the area of transgressors. Besides, of the 24 forest blocks in the Mahanadi delta, only six have been declared reserve forests. And as most of the proposed reserve areas are under the Revenue Department and not the Forest Department, there is little hope of the status being accorded in the near future. -Ruben Banerjee

The declining cover of mangroves-which account for nearly 90 per cent of the marine species in India-is the main cause for increasing soil erosion and silt accretion, which in turn pose a threat to the Sunderbans. Using satellite imagery, the study reveals that the rate of coastal erosion is higher than the rate of accretion in the estuarine zone. In other words, the entire island system is faced with a rapid loss of land area and embankment, flooding, and salinisation of drinking water. The mean sea level in the Sunderbans has shown a steady increase at the rate of 3.14 mm every year, much higher than the global average of 2 mm per year. Scientists believe that in the next 50 years, a rise of even 1 m in sea level would inundate 1,000 sq km of the 102 islands in the Sunderbans.

Reflecting the urgency of the situation, the study points to the submergence of Bedford, Lohachara, Kabasgadi and Suparibhanga islands between 1988 and 1995 that has left over 6,000 families homeless. Sagar, the biggest island, has already lost 30 sq km, and by 2020, would lose another 15 per cent of its habitable area. This would create 30,000 environmental refugees, says Hazra. Orissa is a case in the point, he adds, pointing out that the supercyclone was inevitable due to the clearance of a large area of mangrove cover for the Paradip port (see box). For West Bengal, the repercussions would be more serious considering that tree felling in the past century has reduced the total mangrove cover from 9,630 sq km to 4,266.6 sq km in the Sunderbans due to land reclamation for human settlement.

The population pressure on the Sunderbans ecosystem, which acts as a pollution sink for Kolkata and as a nursery for the aquatic resources in the Bay of Bengal, has been telling. The indiscriminate felling of trees has created a shortage of fuel wood and drinking water. "Mangrove depletion increases the fear of Kolkata's submergence," warns Hazra. "The Government must acknowledge that it is an ecological disaster in the making."

West Bengal Minister for Sunderbans Development Kanti Ganguly admits that the situation is serious but that there is no political will. In 1999, the Coastal Regulatory Zone Authority was formed-specifically for the Sunderbans-under the West Bengal Ministry of Environment on Central government directive. The body has not met in two years. While most parts of the island system fall under a notified coastal regulatory zone where no resettlement or development activity is permitted, the law has never been implemented nor has the illegal acquisition of fuel wood from mangroves been curbed. The netting of prawn seeds and prawn mono-culture (cultivation of a single species which leads to its extinction) continues to be rampant. Barraging of rivers and diversion or blocking of upstream water for development has also contributed to erosion.

BATTLE FOR GROUND The Sunderbans shrunk by 5,363 sq km between 1830 and 2001 orissa's mangroves

The West Bengal Renewable Energy Development Agency too is taking an estimated 36,000 kg of mangrove wood to feed the biomass gasification plant in Gosaba and Choto Mollakhali islands. The Port Trust of India, which had planned seven guide-walls at Ghoramara to change the course of Hooghly and save the Haldia port from siltation, has built only three. So while Ghoramara is fast eroding, Haldia port is drying up.

Hazra, however, is optimistic. The disappearing shoreline of the Sunderbans can be saved if immediate action is taken to plant mangrove along the banks, monitor sea-level conditions, maintain embankments, and tone down the "so-called poverty alleviation measures". It's either this or a countdown to catastrophe.