Just when Sri Lanka appeared close to ending years of ethnic bloodshed, President Chandrika Kumaratunga and her foe Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe are locked in a power struggle that could push the country back to war.

On October 22 the Sri Lankan Supreme Court gave the thumbs down to the prime minister's move to take away the power of the president to sack the legislature after it completes a year in office on December 5. The court has asked the Government to seek approval in an island-wide referendum if it wants to go ahead with the controversial constitutional amendment-a move Wickremesinghe's ruling party can ill afford.

FACE-OFF: Kumaratunga (left) has gained a victory over Wickremesinghe (right) after the Supreme Court turned down a proposal to curtail presidential powers

The political turmoil can act as an excuse for the Tigers to scuttle the peace bid and get out of the truce.

The Government has said it is not interested in holding a plebiscite on what is known as the 19th Amendment and will instead consider going for a snap election, a widely unpopular move given the Rs 600 million it is projected to cost. The judgement keeps the chief executive's clout intact but it has also given Wickremesinghe's side some respite. His United National Party was banking on defections from Kumaratunga's opposition People's Alliance to bolster the thin two-seat majority it holds in the 225-seat Parliament. But a brewing crisis in one of the parties in his coalition has kept the fence-sitters from jumping in. Even if the court had ruled that only the mandatory two-thirds majority vote is required for the amendment, the Government could have taken a beating in the legislature.

The Supreme Court has also called for a referendum on another constitutional amendment-one that seeks to grant immunity from prosecution to members of a Constitutional Council responsible for setting up independent panels to run the police, civil service, judiciary and the election office in the island nation. Officials say the decision is a blow to the prospects of an early establishment of these independent bodies.

Diplomats also worry that the looming political instability will impede the progress of negotiations with the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The Government has opened peace talks, brokered by Norway, with the LTTE and a truce was established on February 23. A second round of talks is due later this month in Thailand to tackle issues like the re-settling of internally displaced persons and joint appeals for foreign aid to rebuild areas ravaged by two decades of fighting.

Though the dust has settled after the keenly watched court ruling, the Government is up against another predicament. A key partner in Wickremesinghe's coalition is in the throes of a leadership crisis. A faction of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress is threatening to quit the Government over demands for a separate administrative unit for the minority community in the island's east. The power struggle within the group threatens the stability of the UNP Government which won the elections with a promise of peace with the Tigers.

Kumaratunga has said she will not dissolve Parliament, but the rocky cohabitation with Wickremesinghe has left the Government unconvinced. The uncertainty was triggered by parliamentary elections last year which resulted in Sri Lanka having its legislature and the executive run by rival parties. Kumaratunga was elected in the December 1999 presidential elections for a six-year term

Critics of the Government's move to engage the Tigers in talks warn that the rebels will sooner or later revert to warring, just as they did on previous occasions. If the Tigers are looking for an exit, the current political tug of war in Colombo could give them a tailor-made excuse to scuttle the fragile peace bid.

-Christine Jayasinghe in Colombo