Vajpayee is still in office was able to win the election that followed for his party. Re-election is a mountain that seems nearly impassable, and that is why the achievements of Digvijay Singh and N. Chandrababu Naidu are quite extraordinary. Vajpayee did win a re-election of sorts in 1999 but, in my view, that was a seamless continuation of the earlier election in 1998. Few people doubt that Vajpayee will go the same way as his predecessors. The irony is that even without statutory term limits (as in the US) Indian prime ministers have become one-term chief executives.

In the case of the Vajpayee Government I think we can even point to the exact date when the last act opened. On February 28, 2002, while an insecure finance minister in Delhi spelt out his recipe for disaster, in distant Gujarat the demons had gathered for a dance of death. Eight months have passed and the nation has not recovered from that double whammy.

The office of prime minister is the cornerstone of the Indian government. Chip away at that stone and the government will become a non-performing government. In the past 15 years, I have observed that it is the souring of personal relationships that triggers an attack on the prime minister-in-office. If Arun Nehru, Arun Singh and V.P. Singh (the three persons Rajiv trusted most at the beginning) had not betrayed personal ambition, Rajiv would have weathered the Bofors storm. Rao's bete noire was Arjun Singh, and it were the party dissidents who cut the ground from under him after the demolition of the Babri Masjid. V.P. Singh's nemesis was Chandra Shekhar who never forgave Singh for denying him the prime minister's office. Ultimately, when Shekhar got his chance, he blew it by his inability to maintain a difficult relationship with Rajiv. For all the attempts to hide their differences, the relationship between Vajpayee and L.K. Advani has entered a decisive phase. One of them has to yield to the other. In the meanwhile, the Government will remain in deep slumber.

BEATING A RETREAT: Prime Minister Vajpayee

The engine sputters when the prime minister is unable to wield his authority. The celebrated power to reshuffle the Cabinet is largely a myth. Despite having an unprecedented number of MPs on the treasury benches, Rajiv could not do better than fit square pegs in round holes: Buta Singh in home, P. Shivshanker in external affairs and, lamentably, N.D. Tiwari and S.B. Chavan in finance. Rajiv's undoubted charisma was no substitute for performance in crucial ministries. Rao used his power not to enhance his government's performance but to ward off threats. He seized every opportunity to throw out people from the government and, if necessary, the party. Vajpayee faces the same problem. Despite his stature, he is not the master of his house. He could do nothing when Suresh Prabhu was pulled out of the Government. He yielded meekly when pressure mounted from the Advani camp to make Advani deputy prime minister. Vajpayee beat a retreat when the rebels joined hands to attack the disinvestment policy. When economists pointed to the crisis in the economy (growth down, jobs down, investment down), a bewildered Vajpayee could only switch the positions of Yashwant Sinha and Jaswant Singh. So, instead of one square peg in a round hole (Yashwant Sinha as finance minister), we now have two.

The engine begins to die out when the prime minister stops dreaming about the future. Vajpayee, I am afraid, has reached that stage in his chequered life. The body is tired, the spirit is weak, it may be possible occasionally to summon the energy to make a brave speech but it is clear to everyone that it is the beginning of the end of his Government. The signals will percolate down to the lowest echelons and everyone will simply pass time. Vajpayee's Government has run out of ideas, and it is also running out of time. Every state election will bring more bad news. In this dreary atmosphere, it is scarcely possible to hope for big-bang reform. We must be content if the oarsmen keep the boat afloat for the remaining period with modest growth, moderate inflation and a manageable deficit.

I have for a long time pleaded for a fundamental change in the system of government. A complex nation like India needs a strong, young chief executive, directly elected, holding office for no more than two terms, and who can dream big dreams and draw upon the vast pool of talent available in the country to provide good governance. Until then, it is deja vu.