Two weeks after a rebellion in the Uttar Pradesh unit of the BJP, the party leadership is still grappling to defuse the crisis. Last week, the dissidence assumed proportions that threatened the survival of the five-month-old Mayawati-led coalition Government.

The BJP's bid to placate the rebels suffered a setback on October 31 when 12 MLAs marched to the Raj Bhavan to inform Governor Vishnukant Shastri that they were withdrawing support to the Mayawati Government. The dissidents have already formed a parallel outfit, the BJP Bachao Samiti. "We will not tolerate this anti-people and corrupt Government for a minute more," said Kovid Kumar Singh immediately after his meeting with the governor. Just a few minutes earlier, he had been suspended from the party.

MISSION FAILURE: (from right) Rajnath, Thakre and Katiyar failed to quell the revellion

Kumar, who was accompanied by 11 other BJP MLAs, was taken to the Raj Bhavan by the leader of the Independent MLAs, Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya. The rebels claim they have the support of a dozen more BJP MLAs. The number of dissidents in the BJP has already reached 20, eight less than the one-third needed to avoid disqualification of the entire group under the anti defection law. The BJP's strength in the 403-member house is 88. Eight Independents, of whom seven had supported the Mayawati Government in the confidence vote, withdrew support on October 25. The latest development brought the ruling coalition's backing to 198 MLAs, five short of the majority mark.

All eyes are now on the Independents and BJP dissidents as they mount pressure on the governor to ask Mayawati to prove her majority in the Assembly. They have the backing of Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had met them before their meeting with the governor. Also, the high-profile general secretary of the Samajwadi Party, Amar Singh, who shuttled between Lucknow and Delhi for much of last week, was in constant touch with the rebels.

DIE HARD: Mayawati is betting on anti-defection technicalities and a split in the Congress

The rebels are emboldened by the fact that the Speaker has powers to disqualify a member only within the Assembly, not outside it. "We have already sorted out these things with the Speaker's office," says Yashwant Singh, a former minister and currently the link between the BJP dissidents and the Samajwadi Party. "We had already sought the opinion of constitutional experts before withdrawing support to the Government," says Kumar exuding confidence that their move will not attract the provisions of the anti-defection law. But Speaker Kesarinath Tripathi has hinted that the behaviour of the MLAs even outside the House can be taken into account while invoking the anti-defection law. Last week, Mayawati, BJP Legislature Party leader Lalji Tandon and state party President Vinay Katiyar were closeted with Speaker Tripathi at his residence to explore the possibility of disqualifying the rebellious BJP MLAs.

For the moment, however, Mulayam's dream of taking over the reins from Mayawati may remain just that. If the dissidents fail to mobilise one-third of the 88 BJP MLAs, they may lose their membership of the House. Even if they manage the one-third figure, they still face problems. To begin with, they will have no sympathy from the governor and the Speaker, both of whom belong to the BJP. Then again, Mayawati is in touch with a section of Congress MLAs who are opposed to an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. On the flipside, there is a group in the Congress that stoutly backs the Samajwadi Party even if that means splitting the party in case the high command does not support a Mulayam-led government.

Mayawati's options are limited. She can try and delay convening the House as long as possible; or she can attempt splitting the Congress. The last option, of course, would be to dissolve the House and force mid-term polls in the state, though constitutional experts say this step is no guarantee since the governor would have to at least go through the motions of exploring other alternatives before dissolving the Assembly.

On the other hand, Mulayam has not only succeeded in weaning away BJP MLAs and Independents but may also get support from some unexpected quarters like Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal. One of its MLAs, Samarpal Singh, has already been suspended from the party for supporting the BJP dissidents.

Politically, the crisis in the Government has come as a boon for the Samajwadi Party. It was able to overhaul its caste chemistry at one shot. The way Mulayam's pointsman Amar Singh fought for "the Rajput cause" suddenly won for the party-otherwise known as a champion of OBCs and Muslims-the sympathy of the Thakurs. Mulayam may thus well be extending the support base of his party from the limited Yadav-Muslim combine to a more potent Yadav-Muslim-Thakur axis.

FOREVER HOPEFUL: Mulayam and Amar Singh (foreground) with Samajwadi Party MLAs

The Mayawati Government may yet survive but for the BJP recent events are proving catastrophic. Indiscipline, infighting and casteism have pushed the party to the brink of disaster in a state once considered its impregnable fort. The assembly elections in March saw the party tumbling to third position behind the Samajwadi Party and the BSP. It will take a long time to recover from the present crisis.

The reasons for the slide are not far to seek. The negligent attitude of the party high command regarding party affairs in the state and the inertia displayed by Tandon and Katiyar have allowed the situation to come to such a pass. Charges of promoting outsiders in the recent cabinet expansion at the expense of veteran MLAs are not something that the party high command can easily explain. Says senior BJP leader Kalraj Mishra, who headed the state party unit for over 12 years: "We should ponder over what has happened and why it has happened." While lashing out at the dissidents, he does not entirely absolve the state party leadership. Former chief minister Rajnath Singh, who is suspect in the eyes of a section of party, was hopeful of evolving a solution but went underground after the setback on October 31. Kushabhau Thakre, the former national president of the BJP, too camped in Lucknow but could do nothing to quell the dissidence. The decay in the state BJP is so rapid that the time may not be far off when the party is reduced to a marginal player in Uttar Pradesh politics.

DIVERGENT STRATEGIES
GOVERNMENT		OPPOSITION
Delay convening the Assembly session as long as possible.		Mobilise 30 BJP MLAs to force a split in party.
Try and split the Congress.		Force early assembly session.
Invoke anti-defection law against rebels to disqualify them.		Work out an alternative power structure, defeat Government
Dissolve House, call for polls		Avoid polls at any cost.

WRIT DOESN'T RUN: The BJP brass has not been able to control the cadres

Strangely, despite being aware that the BJP in Uttar Pradesh was just as affected by the caste virus as any other party, the central leadership did not see the brewing storm as Rajput MLAs gave vent to their disaffection over being given short shrift in ministerial inductions. As if the late reaction wasn't bad enough, the BJP further erred in despatching party General Secretary Rajnath Singh whose dislike of the Bahujan Samaj Party and Chief Minister Mayawati is hardly a secret.

On October 29, the situation appeared to be somewhat in control. The rebels told BJP President M. Venkaiah Naidu that they were prepared to discuss their differences and wanted the disciplinary action against them to be withdrawn. Naidu insisted that the dissidents demonstrate they had turned over a new leaf. Having mounted the high horse, the dissident leaders found it difficult to be seen to be caving in. By evening, the rebellion flared again, gaining a life of its own. The showdown does not seem to be driven by any ideological differences, despite the mismatch between the BJP and BSP constituencies. It was, as a BJP general secretary put it, a failure of political management, both at the Centre and the state level.

BREAKING AWAY: The BJP dissidents with Governor Vishnukant Shastri

The Uttar Pradesh fiasco is only the latest in a string of incidents which have exposed the BJP's inability to anticipate, control and discipline rebellion. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP Legislative Party had split in December last year with 12 MLAs forming a new political party. The BJP had blamed the Congress' "money game", but its own inability to maintain discipline in the ranks cannot be glossed over. Similarly, in Karnataka the BJP faced embarrassment during a biennial Rajya Sabha election. Beer baron Vijay Mallya successfully manipulated BJP votes, ensuring that the party's candidate D.K. Taradevi lost. The BJP proceeded to expel six MLAs but the damage had been done. Nevertheless, the action was at least indicative of the party's intent not to tolerate flagrant indiscipline.

The revolts in the states are reflected at the Centre. With increasing regularity, BJP ministers in the A.B. Vajpayee Government have fenced with one another over policy. The admonitions of Naidu and other senior BJP leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, have fallen on deaf ears. The BJP's claim to being a party with a difference has been knocked many times over. -Rajeev Deshpande.

Two weeks after a rebellion in the Uttar Pradesh unit of the BJP, the party leadership is still grappling to defuse the crisis. Last week, the dissidence assumed proportions that threatened the survival of the five-month-old Mayawati-led coalition Government.

The BJP's bid to placate the rebels suffered a setback on October 31 when 12 MLAs marched to the Raj Bhavan to inform Governor Vishnukant Shastri that they were withdrawing support to the Mayawati Government. The dissidents have already formed a parallel outfit, the BJP Bachao Samiti. "We will not tolerate this anti-people and corrupt Government for a minute more," said Kovid Kumar Singh immediately after his meeting with the governor. Just a few minutes earlier, he had been suspended from the party.

MISSION FAILURE: (from right) Rajnath, Thakre and Katiyar failed to quell the revellion

Kumar, who was accompanied by 11 other BJP MLAs, was taken to the Raj Bhavan by the leader of the Independent MLAs, Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya. The rebels claim they have the support of a dozen more BJP MLAs. The number of dissidents in the BJP has already reached 20, eight less than the one-third needed to avoid disqualification of the entire group under the anti defection law. The BJP's strength in the 403-member house is 88. Eight Independents, of whom seven had supported the Mayawati Government in the confidence vote, withdrew support on October 25. The latest development brought the ruling coalition's backing to 198 MLAs, five short of the majority mark.

All eyes are now on the Independents and BJP dissidents as they mount pressure on the governor to ask Mayawati to prove her majority in the Assembly. They have the backing of Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, who had met them before their meeting with the governor. Also, the high-profile general secretary of the Samajwadi Party, Amar Singh, who shuttled between Lucknow and Delhi for much of last week, was in constant touch with the rebels.

DIE HARD: Mayawati is betting on anti-defection technicalities and a split in the Congress

The rebels are emboldened by the fact that the Speaker has powers to disqualify a member only within the Assembly, not outside it. "We have already sorted out these things with the Speaker's office," says Yashwant Singh, a former minister and currently the link between the BJP dissidents and the Samajwadi Party. "We had already sought the opinion of constitutional experts before withdrawing support to the Government," says Kumar exuding confidence that their move will not attract the provisions of the anti-defection law. But Speaker Kesarinath Tripathi has hinted that the behaviour of the MLAs even outside the House can be taken into account while invoking the anti-defection law. Last week, Mayawati, BJP Legislature Party leader Lalji Tandon and state party President Vinay Katiyar were closeted with Speaker Tripathi at his residence to explore the possibility of disqualifying the rebellious BJP MLAs.

For the moment, however, Mulayam's dream of taking over the reins from Mayawati may remain just that. If the dissidents fail to mobilise one-third of the 88 BJP MLAs, they may lose their membership of the House. Even if they manage the one-third figure, they still face problems. To begin with, they will have no sympathy from the governor and the Speaker, both of whom belong to the BJP. Then again, Mayawati is in touch with a section of Congress MLAs who are opposed to an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. On the flipside, there is a group in the Congress that stoutly backs the Samajwadi Party even if that means splitting the party in case the high command does not support a Mulayam-led government.

Mayawati's options are limited. She can try and delay convening the House as long as possible; or she can attempt splitting the Congress. The last option, of course, would be to dissolve the House and force mid-term polls in the state, though constitutional experts say this step is no guarantee since the governor would have to at least go through the motions of exploring other alternatives before dissolving the Assembly.

On the other hand, Mulayam has not only succeeded in weaning away BJP MLAs and Independents but may also get support from some unexpected quarters like Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal. One of its MLAs, Samarpal Singh, has already been suspended from the party for supporting the BJP dissidents.

Politically, the crisis in the Government has come as a boon for the Samajwadi Party. It was able to overhaul its caste chemistry at one shot. The way Mulayam's pointsman Amar Singh fought for "the Rajput cause" suddenly won for the party-otherwise known as a champion of OBCs and Muslims-the sympathy of the Thakurs. Mulayam may thus well be extending the support base of his party from the limited Yadav-Muslim combine to a more potent Yadav-Muslim-Thakur axis.

FOREVER HOPEFUL: Mulayam and Amar Singh (foreground) with Samajwadi Party MLAs

The Mayawati Government may yet survive but for the BJP recent events are proving catastrophic. Indiscipline, infighting and casteism have pushed the party to the brink of disaster in a state once considered its impregnable fort. The assembly elections in March saw the party tumbling to third position behind the Samajwadi Party and the BSP. It will take a long time to recover from the present crisis.

The reasons for the slide are not far to seek. The negligent attitude of the party high command regarding party affairs in the state and the inertia displayed by Tandon and Katiyar have allowed the situation to come to such a pass. Charges of promoting outsiders in the recent cabinet expansion at the expense of veteran MLAs are not something that the party high command can easily explain. Says senior BJP leader Kalraj Mishra, who headed the state party unit for over 12 years: "We should ponder over what has happened and why it has happened." While lashing out at the dissidents, he does not entirely absolve the state party leadership. Former chief minister Rajnath Singh, who is suspect in the eyes of a section of party, was hopeful of evolving a solution but went underground after the setback on October 31. Kushabhau Thakre, the former national president of the BJP, too camped in Lucknow but could do nothing to quell the dissidence. The decay in the state BJP is so rapid that the time may not be far off when the party is reduced to a marginal player in Uttar Pradesh politics.

DIVERGENT STRATEGIES
GOVERNMENT		OPPOSITION
Delay convening the Assembly session as long as possible.		Mobilise 30 BJP MLAs to force a split in party.
Try and split the Congress.		Force early assembly session.
Invoke anti-defection law against rebels to disqualify them.		Work out an alternative power structure, defeat Government
Dissolve House, call for polls		Avoid polls at any cost.

WRIT DOESN'T RUN: The BJP brass has not been able to control the cadres

Strangely, despite being aware that the BJP in Uttar Pradesh was just as affected by the caste virus as any other party, the central leadership did not see the brewing storm as Rajput MLAs gave vent to their disaffection over being given short shrift in ministerial inductions. As if the late reaction wasn't bad enough, the BJP further erred in despatching party General Secretary Rajnath Singh whose dislike of the Bahujan Samaj Party and Chief Minister Mayawati is hardly a secret.

On October 29, the situation appeared to be somewhat in control. The rebels told BJP President M. Venkaiah Naidu that they were prepared to discuss their differences and wanted the disciplinary action against them to be withdrawn. Naidu insisted that the dissidents demonstrate they had turned over a new leaf. Having mounted the high horse, the dissident leaders found it difficult to be seen to be caving in. By evening, the rebellion flared again, gaining a life of its own. The showdown does not seem to be driven by any ideological differences, despite the mismatch between the BJP and BSP constituencies. It was, as a BJP general secretary put it, a failure of political management, both at the Centre and the state level.

BREAKING AWAY: The BJP dissidents with Governor Vishnukant Shastri

The Uttar Pradesh fiasco is only the latest in a string of incidents which have exposed the BJP's inability to anticipate, control and discipline rebellion. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP Legislative Party had split in December last year with 12 MLAs forming a new political party. The BJP had blamed the Congress' "money game", but its own inability to maintain discipline in the ranks cannot be glossed over. Similarly, in Karnataka the BJP faced embarrassment during a biennial Rajya Sabha election. Beer baron Vijay Mallya successfully manipulated BJP votes, ensuring that the party's candidate D.K. Taradevi lost. The BJP proceeded to expel six MLAs but the damage had been done. Nevertheless, the action was at least indicative of the party's intent not to tolerate flagrant indiscipline.

The revolts in the states are reflected at the Centre. With increasing regularity, BJP ministers in the A.B. Vajpayee Government have fenced with one another over policy. The admonitions of Naidu and other senior BJP leaders, including Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, have fallen on deaf ears. The BJP's claim to being a party with a difference has been knocked many times over. -Rajeev Deshpande.