Four weeks after the October 10 elections, Pakistan's political landscape remains as murky as ever. With President Pervez Musharraf postponing by "about a week" the inaugural session of the new parliament, speculation about who Pakistan's prime minister will be has heightened. Will it be the king's alliance nominee Zafarullah Jamali, the firebrand pro-Taliban cleric Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the wheeling-dealing Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Makhdoom Amin Fahim or someone else? Nobody really knows.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS: MMA nominee Rehman (left) with ARD chief Nasrullah

With no political party winning a majority in the 342-member National Assembly, it was always expected that coalition politics would throw up a government of strange bedfellows. But the past few weeks have surprised even the most hardened of pundits. Various combinations have been touted as the future government: the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Q) in coalition with the mullah alliance MMA; the secular anti-Musharraf Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) with the MMA; the PML(Q) and a number of smaller pro-Musharraf parties. With no deal finalised, however, the situation remains unclear.

What is clear, however, is that Musharraf and his military establishment are determined to win, come what may. The postponement of the parliament's inauguration was only the latest in the Government's attempts to instal a prime minister of its choice. The delay will allow the pro-Musharraf PML(Q) more time to cobble together the numbers that have so far eluded it. And the military seems more than willing to help it along.

At the crux of the problem for Musharraf lies Benazir Bhutto's PPP which contested the elections under the banner of the PPP Parliamentarians (PPPP) and won 81 seats. Together with the PML(Q)-which secured 116 seats-it could help form a stable federal government. More importantly, such a regime would allay US fears, expressed privately to the government, about the electoral victories of the religious right which campaigned on an overtly anti-US platform.

KINGMAKERS: Musharraf (left) wants a PML(Q) government but Benazir is also trying to strike a deal with the army

The PPP has maintained a public posture against Musharraf's controversial ascension as president and his constitutional amendments. It continues to express support for the ARD chief, veteran politician Nawabzada Nasrullah, who has attempted to put together a grand coalition of anti-Musharraf parties. But Benazir is also pursuing a secret deal with the military whereby PPP would support a PML(Q) government if her husband Asif Zardari is released from jail and the numerous corruption cases pending against the couple are quashed. Sources reveal that Benazir has even agreed not to oppose Musharraf's amendments in parliament and not to try to return to Pakistan until at least the next elections. But the deal floundered because Benazir refused to give her promises in writing.

Time for Military Tactic II. Having failed to elicit iron-clad guarantees, the Government has now threatened to break the PPP. Musharraf's negotiators have informed Benazir they have created a "forward bloc" of 23 legislators that would support the Government even if she didn't. Heading the forward bloc is prime ministerial hopeful and PPPP parliamentary leader Fahim who is on very cordial terms with Musharraf. Fahim's double game became evident when he managed to scuttle, through delaying tactics, a deal put together by Nasrullah which would have seen MMA Secretary-General Rehman as the prime minister, with other important posts going to the PPPP. The emergence of former law minister and senior PPPP leader Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, who has remained true to Benazir, for the top post could well be her attempt to get back at Fahim.

Whether Fahim will become prime minister is still uncertain. He may have to contend with the PML(Q)'s reluctance. But by playing a double game herself, Benazir has made it easier for the military to win.