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INDIA
TODAY HINDI
CURRENT
ISSUE DECEMBER 09, 2002
GUEST COLUMN: SATINDER K. LAMBAH
Common Cause
Russia
is changing. On the basis of a broad consensus, the choice is for a "liberal,
democratic, federal polity". Power and influence are slowly shifting from
the old elite (party nomenclature, security services and military brass)
to the new elite (oligarchy groups/monopolies, a small growing middle
class and liberal intelligentsia). The old elite is still important and
presidential power will continue to have a decisive influence.
Under
Vladimir Putin there has been a pragmatic definition of Russia's place
in the changing world. There is a willingness to scale down the country's
needs from those previously defined, with a keener appreciation of the
limits of its capabilities. At the same time, Russia is regaining its
ability to influence external developments. This it was unable to do in
the early 1990s. It is also developing new vectors of power. The export
of hydrocarbon resources and capabilities in residual science and technology
are gradually emerging as Russia's foreign policy tools.
Among
the major powers, Russia has historically shown great sensitivity and
understanding of India's national objectives. It has not considered the
inevitability of our growth as a threat. The framework for bilateral cooperation
for combating international terrorism has been established. The working
group on Afghanistan and the two joint coordination groups on terrorism
have produced practical results. India and Russia have supported each
other on vital issues. India strongly condemned the Moscow theatre hostage
takeover by Chechen terrorists. Russia has supported the Indian stand
on cross-border terrorism. Only last week, Russia condemned the attack
on Jammu's Raghunath temple and has asked Pakistan to dismantle all terrorist
camps in the country.
Indo-Russian relations are time tested and multi-faceted. The Declaration
on Strategic Partnership lays down broad contours of bilateral relations
in the 21st century. Both countries have maintained close dialogue on
issues related to strategic stability. Russia has supported our claim
for a permanent membership in the UN Security Council. The military-technical
pact is long-standing and substantial with cooperation in the vital space
and nuclear sectors of mutual benefit. The GSLV launch in April 2001 used
Russian cryogenic stage. The MoU on peaceful uses of nuclear energy was
signed during Putin's previous trip to India. During his visit to BARC,
the first by any g-8 leader in many years, Putin said the Indo-Russian
nuclear pact remained one of the prospective areas of bilateral cooperation.
The successful work on the Kundankulam Nuclear Power Plant is an example
of this mutually beneficial arrangement.
One of the most significant developments was the agreement, signed on
February 10, 2001, resulting in the stake of ONGC Videsh Ltd in the development
of Sakhalin-I. The investment of $1.7 billion (Rs 8,000 crore) is the
largest Indian investment abroad. The oil security loan from this project
in the first six years will be roughly one-sixth of India's domestic production.
Our political relations have matured. The future tasks are to maintain
momentum and facilitate a corresponding economic relationship. Currently,
there is a growing mismatch despite agreements like Sakhalin-I. This contradicts
the requirements of both India and Russia. Neither does it appeal to the
new elites of Russia nor to corporate India. On present course, the declaration
will lose its meaning if economic content is lacking. We need to take
measures to change the situation. These could include the establishment
of an Indo-Russian economic forum of businessmen to facilitate high level
private-sector contacts and a mechanism to underwrite risks to fill the
void after the debt repayment route becomes a trickle after 2005. In any
case, debt repayment has not helped our trade. The Russians should use
the balance for investment in India. It will yield handsome dividends.
Other measures could be more emphasis on tourism, films, science and technology
and a formalised energy cooperation through an energy security dialogue
with the objective of concluding a long-term energy charter treaty which
could even be multilateralised at a later stage. We could establish an
Indo-Russian centre for energy studies and cooperation.
The unique strength of the Indo-Russian relation is that there is a
national consensus in both countries on a strong and stable relationship.
Annual summits stipulated in the declaration have become a reality. Putin's
visit to India next week will be the third summit between the two countries
in 26 months. Hopefully, in addition to the pending issues of defence
cooperation it will also address the economic content of our bilateral
relations. There is a new reality in India and Russia. Both need to keep
in step.
The author is a former Indian ambassador
to Russia.