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CURRENT
ISSUE DECEMBER 09, 2002
DIPLOMACY: PUTIN VISIT
Building on the Past
Islamist terrorism and energy security will be
the priorities during Putin's visit to India
By Shishir Gupta
Russian President
Vladimir Putin doesn't mince words. He believes in hard talk and shooting
straight from the hip. At a joint press conference with US President George
W. Bush on November 22, he candidly put Pakistan on the same pedestal
as Iraq. The Russian President's strong words against terrorism have been
music to Indian ears.
It is not surprising, therefore, that terrorism tops the agenda during
Putin's forthcoming two-day visit to India starting on December 3-his
second in two years. Flying in from China, Putin is expected to sign two
declarations and six bilateral agreements with India. His packed schedule
includes meetings with President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, Prime Minister A.B.
Vajpayee, External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha and Leader of the Opposition
Sonia Gandhi.
REALITY CHECK: Putin's visit provides an opportunity to
redefine friendship
The high point of Putin's visit will be a bilateral agreement on setting
up a joint working group on counter-terrorism. This group will have a
larger ambit than the existing group headed by the National Security Advisers
of the two countries. Headed by Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal and Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister V. Trubnikov, the group will comprise top intelligence
officials from both sides. Its focus will be on sharing information on
terrorists, including those operating in Kashmir and Chechnya, and on
formulating a joint strategy to tackle the scourge of the 21st century.
Putin will use the Indian platform to urge Pakistan to dismantle its terrorist
infrastructure and tell Islamabad that the Kashmir issue can only be solved
bilaterally.
Another important agreement will increase the number of hi-tech projects
on which the two nations are cooperating from 145 to 232. India is keen
to enhance cooperation with Russia in nuclear energy. Putin's visit will
also cement ties in energy security. Both countries have plans to jointly
invest in third countries as well as in each other's oil and gas exploration
projects. India's ONGC Videsh is looking to investing in the Sakhalin
II project, while Russian giant Gazprom has investments in the deep sea
exploration blocks in the Bay of Bengal.
THE ROAD AHEAD
COMBATING
TERROR: India and Russia will set up a working group on counter-terrorism.
OIL SECURITY:
They will jointly invest in oil and gas exploration projects in
Central Asia.
TECHNICAL
COOPERATION: Cooperation in hi-tech projects will be enhanced.
N-ENERGY: Collaboration in nuclear energy will be increased.
Military trade between the two sides may come up for discussion but the
signing of a major defence deal is ruled out. India is keen to buy the
aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov but wants the package to include the
acquisition of four TU-22 M3K strategic bombers and leasing of a nuclear
submarine. A decision is expected during Defence Minister George Fernandes'
visit to Moscow in February 2003.
While Putin's visit will boost bilateral ties, it will also address
Russia's changing relationship with the US, China and Pakistan. Russian
annual trade with China now stands at $10 billion and their defence ties
are growing. Moscow has supplied Mi-17 helicopters to Pakistan and wants
to engage Islamabad in the energy sector.
India and Russia may undertake a reality check of their bilateral ties
during Putin's trip. Discussions on problem areas such as trade, phasing
out of rupee-rouble trade and spare parts for IAF's fighters are on the
cards. The two countries cannot afford to thrive on ties of the last century;
they need to open fresh avenues for nurturing a relationship in the new
world.