Shrinking Lead
By Swapan Dasgupta

With the Congress notching marginal gains in the past month, the BJP may not romp through, but Modi still seems set for a clear win

Who would make the best CM of Gujarat?
	Shankersinh Vaghela 33% Poll Nov 02: 29%	Keshubhai Patel 9% Poll Nov 02: 5%
Narendra Modi 51%	Amarsinh Choudhury 4% Poll Nov 02: 7%
Modi Vaghela Keshubhai Urban 52 31 5 Rural 50 34 5 GENDER       Male 52 34 5 Female 50 32 6 AGE GROUP       18-24 years 55 30 5 25-44 years 52 32 5 45 and above 48 36 6 CASTE       Hindu 54 30 6 Muslim 17 63 2 Upper caste 56 29 8 OBC 56 26 3 SC/ST 47 37 3 All figures in per cent             Rest: Don't know/Can't say

The purpose of election studies, proclaimed one of the early Nuffield studies of British general elections, is to catch "history in flight". Opinion polls fulfil a similar role. A rigorous and scientifically conducted opinion poll provides a snapshot of the popular mood at a given time. The mood, needless to add, is rarely static. After tortuous convulsions-prompted by the rhetoric of the campaign-it reaches a crescendo on polling day to give institutional express to the popular will.

Last month's india today-Aaj Tak org-marg opinion poll ("The Triumph of Hate", November 25) pointed to a conclusive victory for the BJP and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. With campaigning on its last leg, a clearer picture is emerging for the December poll. It indicates that while the BJP looks set for its third successive election victory in Gujarat-an impressive feat in a time of shifting governments-the scale may not be as spectacular.

In the past four weeks, there has been a 3 per cent swing from the BJP to the Congress. This takes the Congress tally from a poor 45-55 seats to a healthy 70-80 seats. But it is inadequate to instal Shankersinh Vaghela as the next chief minister. Indeed, the situation is broadly comparable to the 1998 outcome, had the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Party (rjp), led by Vaghela, fought together.

Going by the opinion poll, the BJP's advantage stems from three factors. First, the party has undoubtedly benefited from Modi's personal popularity. In four weeks, and despite the decline in the party's fortunes, his personal appeal has shot up by 3 per cent. Modi's charm cuts across gender, age and caste and-not unnaturally-only Muslims are sceptical of him. Indeed, Modi's own popularity in Gujarat narrowly exceeds that of Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee.

Which party will you vote for?

GUJARAT ASSEMBLY PROJECTIONS Total Seats: 182    Majority require: 92  BJP Poll Dec 2002 Poll Nov 2002 100-110 (52%) 120-130 (55%) Lok Sabha 1999*  113 (52%) Assembly 1998  117 (44.8%) Swing% over 1998  7.2 Congress Poll Dec 2002 Poll Nov 2002 70-80 (45%) 45-55 (42%) Lok Sabha 1999*  69 (45.4%) Assembly 1998  57 (46.6%) Swing% over 1998  -1.6

Voting Preferences   BJP Congress Urban 57 43 Rural 56 44 GENDER     Male 56 43 Female 56 44 AGE GROUP     18-24 years 57 43 25-44 years 58 42 45 and above 54 45 CASTE     Hindu 61 39 Muslim 12 87 Upper caste 65 35 OBC 61 38 SC/ST 49 50 All figures in per cent Others Poll Dec 2002 Poll Nov 2002 1-5 (3%) 2-7 (3%) Lok Sabha 2002 Poll Nov 2002 1-5 (3%) 2-7 (3%)

Secondly, as both the polls reinforce, the ideological battleground has been set by the BJP. Whether endorsing Modi's claim that Gujarat has been vilified after the riots or upholding the sharp Hindu-Muslim polarisation, the issues in Gujarat centre on the saffron agenda. Voters now attach greater significance to emotive national issues such as terrorism than they did a month ago. The incidents at Godhra and Akshardham too have left their mark. Modi has set the pace; his opponents are battling on a turf prepared by him.

Finally, the anti-incumbency factor is feeble in Gujarat. The electorate seems satisfied with the performance of both the Central and the state governments. The BJP has also stood its ground from the sense of enhanced personal well-being. Considering that the middle class' disappointment with economic policies and frustration with the quality of governance are proving to be BJP's undoing in the rest of India, Gujarat is basking in a sea of perceived saffron achievement.

Yet, the polarisation and better candidate selection have helped the Congress recover some ground in the past month. The party still has a firm foothold among the Dalits, tribals and Muslims but these are offset by the BJP's formidable clout among the upper and backward castes. Likewise, while Vaghela has improved his personal ratings, they cannot compare with Modi's. The state Congress president has not been able to add significant value to his party's pre-existing strength. At best he has given the party the energy to mount a spirited and expensive campaign.

Yet, all may not be lost for the Congress. Pollsters have pointed to the existence of what they describe as "black boxes". The first comprises 18 per cent respondents-an average figure, judged by the record of previous opinion polls-who refuse to provide details of their past and future voting intentions. The second black box comprises the 29 per cent who have given information but who admit they could change their mind on polling day. Says org-marg Chairman Titoo Ahluwalia: "This second black box is huge-about a third of the voters. This chunk is the one uncertain element in what is otherwise an opinion poll that clearly points to a BJP victory."

If, however, there is a bandwagon effect and the BJP's organisational clout comes into play on polling day, Modi could easily be seeing a landslide win.

Who will make the best PM of India? A.B. Vajpayee 50% (46%) Sonia Gandhi 37% (37) L.K. Advani 7% (10%)

Rate the performance of the Central Government   Dec 2002 Nov 2002 Outstanding 9 7 Good 48 45 Average 29 30 Poor 14 17 All figures in per cent Rest: Don't know/Can't say Poll November 2002 in brakets810

METHODOLOGY		The election campaign has done little to cool communal passions in Gujarat. As many as 65 per cent of the respondents endorse Modi's contention that the state has been vilified, and at least 25 per cent feel that confronting terrorism and restoring Gujarati pride are the most important issues in this election. Of course, bread and butter issues like price rise, employment, corruption and quality of governance sway an overwhelming 54 per cent, but these concerns tend to be subsumed by the plethora of emotive issues. Despite the Election Commission, the Godhra carnage has a profound symbolic importance. Ideologically, variants of Hindutva have left their mark on the popular imagination, a reason why "hard secularism" has few takers in either the Congress or the BJP.
The india today-Aaj Tak org-marg poll interviewed 9,750 eligible voters-2,853 in urban centres and 6,877 in rural areas-spread across 52 assembly constituencies in Gujarat between November 29 and December 3. The sampling was at the parliamentary constituency level, with two assembly seats being selected by systematic random sampling. Within an assembly seat, quota-based Interviews were done using the right hand rule of field movement. The poll was supervised by org-marg Research Director Vivek Kumar.