It was a roller-coaster of a year for major national political parties. For the ruling NDA, 2002 began with a blow and ended with a bang in Gujarat. For the Congress, much promise and hope turned into a whimper: though it formed the governments in three of the six states that went to the polls, losses in Goa and Gujarat took the sheen off the impressive victories. As for the other parties, the past 12 months marked their growing electoral irrelevance.

After successive poll reverses, the NDA got a much-needed boost when its candidates were elected to the posts of both the President and the vice-president. More so, as the alliance had been virtually at war with both former President K.R. Narayanan and vice-president Krishan Kant. The ruling coalition got yet another institutional reprieve when it succeeded in getting its nominee Manohar Joshi of the Shiv Sena elected as the Lok Sabha Speaker after the death of G.M.C. Balayogi in an air mishap.

If the Gujarat riots were a blemish for the NDA Government, kudos poured in from within the country and abroad for the free and fair polls in Jammu and Kashmir that saw the ouster of the Abdullah dynasty. The destabilisation threats by recalcitrant allies also appeared to be a thing of the past. Parties like the TDP, which extracted its pound of flesh at every opportune moment, were no longer in a position to do so.

The much talked about opposition unity turned out to be a mirage when the Congress refused to support Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party (sp) in toppling the BSP-BJP Government in Uttar Pradesh, while in Gujarat, the sp and Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party fought against the Congress. The non-BJP Opposition also failed to put up a strong fight in the winter session of Parliament where the Government managed to get a record 42 bills passed by both the Houses. It was clear that the NDA, which seemed to have run into turbulence at the start of the year, was cruising along smoothly by year end.

It was also a year of the anti-incumbency vote, of forging opportunistic alliances. While states like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal voted out ruling parties, both Goa and Gujarat saw the BJP return to power not on bread-and-butter issues but on emotional ones. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress opposed Mufti Mohammed Sayeed during the election campaign, but post-poll, chose to align with his People's Democratic Party ignoring its pro-militant leanings. That the Congress used different yardsticks became clear when it spurned Mulayam's overtures for government formation in Lucknow.

The year witnessed the fall of mighty leaders even as old political equations withered and new ones took shape. In Punjab, Parkash Singh Badal's Akali Dal was devastated by the Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP's emerging Rajput leader Rajnath Singh was mauled by the aggressive Mayawati, but after the elections, there was a new political matrimony between the BSP and the BJP, with the latter's Brahminical order accepting the superiority of the "socially downtrodden". In the newly carved hill state of Uttaranchal, the Congress sprang a surprise by pulling N.D. Tiwari out of retirement and anointing him chief minister. The irony of the man who for nearly a decade was billed by the Congress as a prime ministerial candidate taking charge of India's smallest state wasn't lost on anyone.

In Tamil Nadu, J. Jayalalithaa not only made a dramatic return as chief minister but also displayed yet again that she always has a few aces up her sleeve. After fighting the saffron brigade in the previous elections, she extended whole-hearted support to the NDA in both the presidential and vice-presidential elections and was the only non-NDA chief minister in Ahmedabad at the swearing-in ceremony of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. 2002 also threw up other important lessons: that tainted politicians never take long to bounce back and that scamsters can and will always beat the system.

The most significant development of 2002, however, was the aggressive posturing by almost all political parties. After the Godhra train massacre and the subsequent killings of Muslims in Gujarat led to the worst communal divide in the country, politicians realised there was profit to be made and political empires to be built from peddling hate. The Modi mantra, vilified by the middle classes, acquired democratic endorsement on December 12 when Gujarat went to the polls. With a stunning victory in its pocket, the BJP lost no time in announcing that the Gujarat spirit would be carried to the rest of the country.

If anything, it has set the tone for politics in 2003. The new year will see nine states going to the polls and after Gujarat it is clear that future poll battles will be emotion-based, not issue-based. The results from Gujarat have halted, perhaps temporarily, the NDA Government's downhill slide and a survey conducted by The Times Of India among college students in the four metros showed Vajpayee was still the most acceptable leader in the country. While the prime minister scored 20 percentage points, Sonia Gandhi got just 3. This has less to do with any achievement on his part and is more an endorsement of his personality. And attitude. For despite being a part of the Hindutva Parivar, he displayed a dogged determination to swim against the tide. Clearly, to many, Vajpayeeism is still the best bet for reducing political tensions.

The celebrations in Gujarat will soon end. As Modi now gets down to the business of administration, it will be time for Vajpayee to rein in the hawkish elements. While the Modi victory is to be savoured, it is imperative that Vajpayee makes his party and the Parivar aware of the serious implications of imposing hard Hindutva-not least of which will be the rise of Muslim fundamentalism in areas unaffected by it so far.

The Congress was trounced in Gujarat but that is no reason for despair. It can bounce back by projecting the impending polls as a referendum for ensuring development with peace and equality. As the party enjoys an advantage over its opponents in terms of strong leadership and discipline, it may be able to stop the NDA from making further inroads into its bastions. Elections 2003 are several months away, but one thing is clear: the polls will be a battleground not for a clash of ideas but a bloody confrontation among individuals.