As an orator, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has few peers. His speeches are a mix of light-hearted digs at political opponents coupled with stern warnings. It was more of the first when he told a mammoth gathering at Mumbai's Shivaji Park last week, "I have come here to inquire about the health of your chief minister, Vilasrao Deshmukh. And I am going to visit other Congress-ruled states also from where chief ministers converged in Gujarat to defeat me. I am very keen to know how they are doing after the drubbing they got." Coincidence perhaps, but the very day that Modi came calling, Deshmukh's political health appeared to take a turn for the worse. On January 16, Deshmukh, who at one stage looked like he would become the first chief minister of Maharashtra in over 25 years to last a full term, resigned to make way for Sushil Kumar Shinde. Congress chief ministers in states that are due for elections are said to be sitting uncomfortably in their seats.

SHOWING THE WAY: Sonia has a Herculean task cut out for Shinde (right)

The Congress is clearly reeling under the Modi effect. Only 10 days earlier, the Congress Working Committee had reviewed the Gujarat poll results and dismissed the BJP's landslide victory as an aberration. By yanking out yet another chief minister from office in her short term as Congress president-Orissa's Giridhar Gamang was the first to face her fury in 1999-Sonia Gandhi has kept up the family tradition of having a revolving door for chief ministers.

During his 39 months in office, Deshmukh survived at least four leadership change scares. It was the unappealing prospect of running a shaky coalition that kept him going. But the resentment was only building up and the dissidents, many of whom had a sympathetic ear in Delhi, were only multiplying. Then Gujarat and the Moditva surge happened. "The Gujarat debacle opened our eyes," says Congress MP Suresh Kalmadi, "It wasn't something that could be wished away in neighbouring Maharashtra, particularly with the assembly polls round the corner." And particularly when Modi's rally at Shivaji Park attracted a crowd of over 75,000-a number hitherto reserved only for leaders like Bal Thackeray. A day after Modi dropped by, Deshmukh was summoned to Delhi. His return to the state capital set the pitch for the arrival of three Congress observers-Pranab Mukherjee, Ghulam Nabi Azad and AICC General Secretary for Maharashtra Vyalar Ravi-to interview MLAs and MPs.

But Deshmukh, who began his political career as the sarpanch of Bhabalgaon village in Latur district, was not quite done. He had decided to go down fighting. Making the Congressman's mandatory noises about abiding by the high command's decision, he held out the trump card he so successfully wielded last year-the 12 independents whose support is critical for the Government's survival also had to be consulted.

If Deshmukh expected them to swear unwavering loyalty to him as they had earlier, he was mistaken. The group, led by Harshvardhan Patil, told the observers that it would support the Congress-NCP Government. Deshmukh, who had until recently confidently signed off his statements with a "I have Soniaji's support", had to go. Even NCP leader Sharad Pawar, though for his own reasons, enabled the Gandhi family writ to prevail in Maharashtra.

Ever since the Gujarat debacle, a shuffling of chief ministers was expected in Congress circles. Five states-Himachal Pradesh in February and four Congress-ruled states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi by the end of the year-are due for polls. "There was need for an image makeover," says a Congress leader.

The Congress president took the first firm step towards that on January 12, not in a state that is due for elections this year but in Maharashtra where elections are still 22 months away. The coincidence of Deshmukh's visit to Delhi just a day after Modi's stellar performance in Mumbai was so stark that the BJP even dubbed the Congress move a knee-jerk reaction to the success of Modi's first incursion into Maharashtra.

Such backslapping may not quite be in order, for it is more likely that Deshmukh lost his job due to party workers' tendency to fight each other instead of the opponent. That Sonia was selectively targeting is evident from the fact that Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot continues in office despite losing three assembly byelections last month and Karnataka Chief Minister S.M. Krishna sits pretty even though he mishandled both the Cauvery dispute and the H. Nagappa kidnapping. In comparison, no scams and scandals have followed Deshmukh, the party hasn't faced electoral reverses in Maharashtra, the state has been relatively peaceful and the Government's performance has only been as good or as bad as any of the 13 Congress-run state governments.

But several internal contradictions and compulsions contributed to Deshmukh's ouster. Foremost among them was perhaps the Congress' attempt to reclaim its support base among Dalits and tribals. The party had lost 23 of the 25 seats in the Gujarat tribal belt. After the Gujarat debacle, winning the Himachal Pradesh elections next month is no longer just a prestige issue for the Congress-it is a matter of survival. Shinde's appointment as the chief minister of Maharashtra may have something to do with the fact that Dalits constitute about 25 per cent of the population of Himachal Pradesh. Maharashtra seems the perfect laboratory for the experiment, since the calculation in the party is that it could afford to alienate the dominant Maratha voters who are backing the NCP in any case.

Revolving Door No Maharashtra chief minister had a full term since 1975
	3 years 3 months VILASRAO DESHMUKH (Congress)	3 years SHARAD PAWAR (Congress)	2 years 4 months VASANTDADA PATIL (Congress)	1 years 11 months SHARAD PAWAR (PDF)
	9 months NARAYAN RANE (Shiv Sena)	2 years 3 months S.B.CHAVAN (Congress)	1 year 1 month B.S. BHOSALE (Congress)	1 year 3 months VASANTDADA PATIL (Congress)
	3 years 6 months MANOHAR JOSHI (Shiv Sena)	9 months S.P. NILANGEKAR (Congress)	1 year 6 months A.R. ANTULAY (Congress)	2 years 2 months S.B. CHAVAN (Congress)

Fortunately for the Congress, Sonia's choice also appealed to Pawar, who had more than one reason to be annoyed with Deshmukh. Two years ago, Deshmukh had set up the Kurdukar probe panel to inquire into the Dabhol power-purchase agreement. Later, he ordered a CBI probe into the Home Trade scam in which a number of NCP MLAs were involved. Ravi admits that the NCP had desired a change in leadership. "The NCP felt that the coalition could not go to polls under the present leadership," says Ravi. According to him, Deshmukh was not a serious person. "He did not have an image like Digvijay Singh or Krishna."

It wasn't as if Deshmukh's problems were limited to his coalition partners. Within the party too there were people who wanted him out. PCC President Govindrao Adik, for one, had long been lobbying for a change. "Change is being effected wherever the party unit is disconnected from the government. The party and the government have to be one cohesive unit in election-going states," says Ambika Soni, Sonia's political secretary.

Maharashtra may have seen the first of the changes and more may be in the offing. In at least two of the four poll-bound states, the PCC and chief ministers are at loggerheads. Gehlot does not see eye-to-eye with Rajasthan PCC chief Girija Vyas and Delhi's Sheila Dikshit and DPCC chief Subhash Chopra do not bother to even acknowledge each other. But unlike Deshmukh, Gehlot and Dikshit have a permanent line open to 10 Janpath. While the Rajasthan chief minister enjoys Soni's trust, Dikshit needs no intermediaries to interact with Sonia. To make matters worse for Deshmukh, Ravi was in constant touch with Adik during the week-long crisis.

Though Deshmukh's tenure was smooth for the first two years, there has been constant friction between the chief minister and the party high command in the past one year. In June last year, Deshmukh almost triggered a crisis in his own government by inducting NCP minister Sunil Tatkhare, thus upsetting another ally, the Peasants and Workers Party. Then the AICC took a dim view of the party's showing in the zilla parishad elections where it was turfed out in most parts of western Maharashtra by the NCP. The dismay over the electoral loss turned into anger when communal riots broke out in Sholapur district in early October, shortly before the Gujarat assembly polls. Then there was the freak rioting after Muslims took out a march to protest against remarks made on the Prophet by an American clergyman. Sonia was said to be so upset that she summoned Deshmukh to Delhi. But when the chief minister reached the capital, she refused to meet him. To rub in the message, Sonia invited Shinde, then merely the MP from Sholapur, to the Congress chief ministers' conference at Mount Abu.

Congress circles view the leadership change in Maharashtra as further proof of Sonia's silent acknowledgement that she cannot hope to come to power in Delhi without building bridges with other parties, even those headed by people she has personal differences with. In other words, there is the realisation in the Congress that if the party is to stand a chance of getting to power, it has to learn to adjust. In Maharashtra, Sonia has shown that she does not consider even Pawar-who left the Congress saying that a person of foreign origin should not be allowed to hold high public office-an untouchable anymore. As NCP General Secretary Praful Patel puts it, "We are moving closer. Shinde's appointment is a positive step forward." The changes she may be contemplating in the near future will indicate how much Sonia is willing to stoop in order to conquer.

— with Sandeep Unnithan