One of India's least secret budgets is likely to come from one of the country's most reclusive finance ministers. In a major break from the budget speeches of the 1990s, Finance Minister Jaswant Singh's speech on February 28 is likely to be more exciting in the second half than in the first part. That is, the core of the budget will be its tax and expenditure proposals rather than the elaborate policy proposals which in the past have ranged from new labour laws to a new power bill.

MR BIG PICTURE: Jaswant has the vision. Now he has show the will.

In doing so, Jaswant will restore the annual budget to what it should be-an expense and income account of the government. And as is clear now, it is in the government's balance-sheet accounting that some of the most critical economic reforms are still pending. By design or by default, Jaswant seems to be seized with at least one part of it-government's tax revenue. There too, thanks to the two task forces that he appointed, the finance minister's options are no secret. "Having floated the reports of the two task forces and a mid-year review of the economy to public discourse, Jaswant has gauged the pulse of what people want. He now has to distill proposals from it," says FICCI Secretary-General Amit Mitra.

Despite being reclusive-Jaswant didn't hold the customary pre-budget meeting with industry chambers and is not known to interact with junior bureaucrats of his ministry-many in India Inc. say he is more open to suggestions. He has sought opinions and suggestions from everybody in writing through post and e-mail, virtually opening the ministry to the whole world. "The process of consultation has been very good and the minister has personally written to us acknowledging our suggestions," confirms Mitra.

But being open isn't the same as being effective. How daring can the finance minister be when the economy and politics are pulling him in different directions? His political friends feel that Jaswant's first budget is either five years too late (he narrowly missed the North Block job in 1998) or 1-2 years too early. It comes so close to the impending assembly and Lok Sabha elections that it will have to be more populist than pragmatic-a package that directly helps the BJP (or the NDA)-win elections. Then, after one or two years, as finance minister of the next government, Jaswant could present a budget unfettered with demands of electoral politics. "The finance minister's biggest constraint could be the timing of the budget," admits Jagdish Shettigar, member of the BJP's National Executive.

Yet Jaswant's friends in the Finance Ministry say he is not a timeserver. Though not a trained economist like Manmohan Singh or a stickler for details like P. Chidambaram or a seasoned administrator like Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant's strength is his being an instinctive reformer with the big picture of the economy. More importantly, he is a political heavyweight and has the ears of the prime minister. That should help Jaswant keep politics from distorting his picture of the economy.

What is his picture of the economy? How much of it will be visible in Budget 2003? Right now, the following things seem certain about the budget:

Taxation will be the overarching theme in the budget. Tax administration will be simplified and rates reduced.

Reductions and simplifications will be most pronounced for excise and customs duties-cuts in taxes on cars, soft drinks, air conditioners are most likely.

A new social security scheme to soften the impact of removal of some tax exemptions will be introduced.

Foreign investment limits in some sectors will be liberalised on the lines of the N.K. Singh panel's suggestions.

Capital markets will be boosted by removing the tax on long-term capital gains and dividends.

Expenditure control on the lines of the much-diluted Fiscal Responsibility Bill.

These disparate elements do add up to some sort of an economic philosophy-a modern, world-class fiscal system, small government and reforms by choice rather than by compulsion. In different forums, Jaswant has mentioned these as his priorities. Sure, none of these sound very new or daringly different from the philosophy of his predecessor. But then, it needn't be. For Jaswant's choice is not what to do for the economy, but how to do it.

That taxation will be his signature reform is certain. "I will be very surprised if Jaswant doesn't make taxation the underlying theme for this year's budget," says Jairam Ramesh, economist and coordinator of the Board of India Today Economists (BITE). So what happens to other key pending economic reforms like change in labour laws, the electricity bill, downsizing of the government and privatisation?

Thankfully for Jaswant, the Government has already expressed intentions of doing all this several times over. He can repeat them, announce tentative deadlines for some of them or just avoid any mention on operational grounds-shifting the emphasis of the budget from Part A of the speech (policy changes) to Part B (tax and expenditure issues). That's because implementing his tax proposals alone will need all the support he can get from A.B. Vajpayee and all the mileage he can extract from being a political heavyweight. Attempting more than that may be shooting for the moon.

Jaswant can also draw cold comfort from the fact that the Indian economy is reviving, even if in fits and starts. The BITE expects GDP growth in 2003-4 to be higher than the 4.4 per cent in 2002-3 (see graphic). A healthier economy can make up for some compromises made for political reasons. For his first budget, Jaswant will count on such beginner's luck.