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CURRENT
ISSUE APRIL 07, 2003
COVER STORY: BATTLE FOR BAGHDAD THE IRAQ
WAR
Messy War Ahead
Fresh perceptions that the conflict might go on
longer than expected are also tinged with fears that Saddam may use both
chemical weapons and battling in cities to inflict heavy casualties on
the coalition force
By
Raj Chengappa in Southern Iraq
The
burning oil fields of Rumaila appear like the fires of hell. The brilliant
orange plumes leap into the sky with a thunderous roar and emit a sooty,
black smoke that darkens the horizons for miles. Brigadier-General Robert
Crear, commandant of the US Army Corps of Engineers, watches the light
and sound show without too much concern. The top ranking US-led coalition
force officer explains that the situation could have been much worse if
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's planned "scorched earth" policy
had not been thwarted by the US military early into the war.
CIVIL WAR: A US soldier carries a boy injured
during fighting in south Iraq below; angry citizens after an air raid
on Baghdad
With over a thousand wells pock-marking the desert landscape, the Rumaila
fields account for two-thirds of Iraq's oil production. Saddam had ordered
the army regiment guarding the wells to set them on fire if there was
a threat of these coming under the control of the coalition force. Saddam,
the US Army believes, is wont to destroy Iraq's economy if he fears being
overthrown to make the task of rehabilitating the country more difficult.
In essence, it would be a replay of 1991. When Iraqi forces were forced
to withdraw from Kuwait they set over 700 oil wells on fire resulting
in huge economic losses and the environment being polluted for years.
So even as coalition forces rained cruise missiles on Baghdad, US Marines,
using the cover of darkness, moved in rapidly from Kuwait and disarmed
the 1,000-strong Iraqi militia guarding the Rumaila oil wells. It was
still not quick enough to prevent nine wells being torched. The US forces
immediately sent for Boots and Coots, the oil-well control specialists
who years ago had put out an oil-well fire in India. Within days four
of the fires were out and there were realistic hopes of bringing the wells
back into production within a month. As Crear told India Today: "Securing
oil fields to prevent their destruction is a priority mission for us.
We now plan to restore the oil infrastructure to benefit the Iraqi people."
Ten days into the second Gulf War, forestalling a possible economic
catastrophe is one of the few silver linings of "Operation Iraqi
Freedom". The "only days" that the offensive was initially
expected to take has of late turned to a "few weeks." US President
George W. Bush has now made the time frame even more vague by declaring,
"It would be however long it takes."
GLOBAL VIEW: Journalists gather in Baghdad to
listen to Saddam's speech
After the amazing initial thrust when the US armoured cavalry rapidly
lay siege to Baghdad, there are signs that the campaign may not be going
as well as the coalition strategists would have the world believe. As
Iraqi defence put up surprising resistance in towns and cities that were
considered cakewalks, there are indications that the battle for control
of Baghdad may take longer, get messier and nastier and come at a much
higher price than the leaders of the coalition force would like to pay.
How much grief can America swallow?
"This war is about liberation and not occupation," says General
Tommy Franks, commander-in-chief of US Central Command and the boss of
the showdown in Iraq. That objective, while laudable, is proving a major
constraint as the war reaches a critical stage. Initially, with the world
opinion firmly against the use of military force and assembled without
UN or international sanction, the coalition was extremely careful not
to cause civilian casualties. In the first week, while its "shock
and awe" campaign saw over 3,000 missiles being dropped on Baghdad,
they were focused on military targets. Civilian deaths numbered less than
20. "We are going to extraordinary lengths to choose selective military
targets. We aren't here to kill many people. We are giving them a chance
to give up," says Group Captain John Fynes, spokesperson for Britain's
Royal Air Force.
OIL INFERNO: US helicopters fly over the Rumaila
oil fields. Several oil wells have been set on fire by retreating
Iraqi militia.
From the beginning, the coalition strategy, which has shown a phenomenal
degree of flexibility, was based on a "hard and soft" approach.
So while Baghdad was being pounded with thousands of tonnes of explosives,
major urban centres in south Iraq such as Basra and Al Nasiriyah were
inundated with pamphlets dropped from aircraft. These urged the people
and the defence personnel to overthrow Saddam. The hope was that if southern
Iraq welcomed the coalition as a liberating force, the regime in Baghdad
would come under enormous pressure. It was one of the reasons why the
coalition force made a surprising thrust towards Baghdad in the first
week of the war even before using its full range of airpower to knock
out Saddam's command and control capability. The other was that the ground
forces were bunched in the Kuwait border when the offensive began and
would have been easy targets for Saddam's missiles.
Instead of garlands, however, coalition troops have been greeted with
bullets in most cities they have tried to take. The port town of Umm Qasr,
just kilometres away from Kuwait's border, took almost a week's fighting
to secure. The allied force initially believed it could bypass Basra,
Iraq's second largest city, and open another flank in the push for Baghdad.
But within hours of claiming that a major Iraqi division in Basra had
voluntarily surrendered, the coalition's credibility was dented when Saddam's
militia started fighting back. Other urban centres of Najaf and Al Nasiriyah
have witnessed as fierce fighting.
While Iraqi forces have taken a pounding, the coalition force is also
feeling the pressure of body bags being flown back home. Initially the
deaths in the coalition ranks resulted from their own mistakes. A US chopper
crashing because of a malfunction, two British helicopters colliding into
each other and a Patriot missile accidentally bringing down a British
fighter mistaking it for an Iraqi missile targeted at Kuwait. But as Saddam's
men began fighting back, death or injury came in fierce combats. The toll
has now crossed 40. Worse, some of the coalition's missiles have gone
off the mark and mowed down civilians, as happened in Baghdad last week
when 17 people were killed. Iraq claims that since the war began, 175
civilians have been killed and 1,110 injured.
SANDBAGGED: The security in Baghdad has increased
with the posting of Iraqi militia and men from Saddam's dreaded intelligence
agencies
What casualty figures would be politically acceptable to Bush and British
Prime Minister Tony Blair? In the previous Gulf war, the casualty was
remarkably low: one soldier lost in 15,000 deployed. In the two World
Wars, the ratio was one death for every 15 soldiers. In India, the 500
deaths in Kargil was a cause of much perturbation. In the US, given that
intimate details of the proceedings of this war are being telecast, any
figure that runs into several hundreds would be politically dangerous
for its leaders. Equally, a high Iraqi civilian casualty would be a severe
reversal for the coalition.
How long will the war last?
After watching the initial sluggishness with which Iraq moved, especially
in the south, senior coalition officers were contemptuous of Saddam's
strategy. Colonel Chris Vernon, spokesperson for the British Army that
is now engaged in the battle for Basra, told India Today: "It is
difficult to understand their planning. They work in incoherent ways and
much of the army appears to be a ragtag bunch." But a week later,
Saddam unfurled his game plan and it immediately put the coalition on
the back-foot.
Saddam has opted for what Vernon admits is the worst nightmare of any
commander-battles in the cities. "Military commanders like to avoid
engagements in urban areas at all costs," says Vernon. Saddam knows
that his tanks and artillery would take a battering if they went in for
classical battles based on manoeuvres in open spaces. In 1991, the US
slaughtered his tank formations by cutting off their retreat and pinning
them in the desert. His plan is to draw the enemy into urban combat, turn
Baghdad into a Stalingrad and inflict a heavy toll on the enemy.
NOTHING BUT THE EMBEDDED TRUTH
Never before has the world had access to so many
versions of frontline facts
MASKED RAIDERS: Coalition soldiers don
protective gear and hit 'scud trenches' in Kuwait
The hand hovering over a corpse in a Baghdad market
freezes on BBC World as a disembodied voice tells us that it
is too gruesome for our delicate constitutions. Flip to Al-Jazeera
TV, the Qatar-based channel, and the blood and gore does make the
stomach turn.
War isn't pretty. We have seen its grainy pictures in Time-Life,
its slow-motion brutality in Saving Private Ryan, its "dil
maange more" patriotism ending in cruel young deaths in the
1999 Kargil war. But as we see it slice by slice, second by second,
we finally know this: there is no one war. There are as many wars
as there are itchy fingers on the remote. And in a post-World Cup
India, the fingers are very itchy indeed.
It is the itchy fingers that allows us to see two different Saddam
Husseins in one address. CNN tells us his pasty face is not moving
and the pages are not being shuffled at regular intervals. On Abu
Dhabi TV, he looks like himself, dyed hair and all. With CNN and
BBC World looking like the US version of Iraqi TV, Abu Dhabi TV
-the only network with a studio in Baghdad-and the contrarian Al-Jazeera
have cocked a snook at the West, proving that artfully camouflaged
propaganda is not their exclusive preserve.
The living room war has been on since Vietnam. Many of us who
were fortunate to be part of the infancy of the cable boom (or stared
goggle-eyed at TV screens in hotel rooms rented by rich friends)
became familiar with its eerie intimacy in 1991 as we saw Baghdad
being bombed. But now, the war is in our face. Breathlessly, we
have stood with our backs to the wall in Basra, waiting for a sniper,
a flag-waving guerrilla shamming surrender, even a landmine. We
have watched Marines wash up as they wait for their battalion to
be relieved. We have seen soldiers targeting a warehouse not knowing
who the return fire is from.
Despite unprecedented access, this war has not been about heroes
(unless you count the Hollywood looks of CNN's John Vause in Doha
and Becky Anderson's pretty jewellery in Kuwait). There is no flak-clad
journalist standing suspiciously close to a booming Bofors gun to
craft melodramatic TV and earn chattering-class heroine status.
As Iraqi villagers in Nasiriyah jostle each other for food packets,
the Marines distributing them don't look like the victors US President
George W. Bush would have us believe. As the villagers' cheap shoes
squelch in the mud, the West looks like what it is: a world that
has denied these people their daily bread. Saddam, in whose praise
two overweight pumpkins sing hosannas on Iraqi TV, looks the evil
dictator he is.
And yet, and yet.
We have seen the futility of Bush's war. It is in the face of
the Texan soldier who is asked what it feels like to be impaled
by David Leanesque sandstorms. "It's okay, I guess," says
the near-tearful 19-year-old. We see it in the captured Apache helicopter
pilot's face as he tries to look brave-it brings back memories of
our own Nachiketa. And we hear it on DD in the desperation with
which Saaed Naqvi hollers at Satish Jacob, our man in Baghdad.
For the first time, "embedded" reporters have gone to
the frontlines of history and changed the way we look at war. We
have not always agreed with them-CNN's Walter Rodgers' cheerleading
inability to distinguish between himself and the troops he is with
is particularly grating-but we have become addicted to them. For
the first time, truth is not a casualty of war. Collateral damage
is not just another name for civilian deaths, smart bombs are often
very stupid and friendly fire just means killing the wrong person.
To be fair, CNN and BBC World have tried to be objective. They
have ensured protests get space. They have given a hand-wringing
Kofi Annan crumbs off the table. They have even telecast two-men-and-a-candle
protests in India. But the dominant point of view has been that
of their two governments. CNN International President Chris Cramer
disagrees: "Embed is a long way away from in bed," he
says. "We are the only channel to be watched by the Government
in Baghdad. We're doing our best to return."
In one word, it is called globalisation. CNN has to be as careful
not to offend Baghdad as it does Washington. Equally, Al-Jazeera
has to be wary of pushing the US and Britain too far. In a world
with freedom-yes, it exists despite Bush and Saddam-war is no longer
one nation's monopoly. Neither is the truth.
Kaveree Bamzai
To neutralise the overwhelming technology superiority of the coalition
force, Saddam has cleverly positioned much of his armour in built-up areas
in major towns and cities. Even with precision bombing the US and its
allies would inflict heavy civilian casualties that can create a worldwide
uproar. In addition to positioning his well-trained and fiercely loyal
Republican Guards in such areas, Saddam is using fidayeen or suicide bombers
to harass US troops and their supply lines.
Saddam is using old world common sense in defending his capital. There
are three protective rings thrown around the city by the Republican Guards
and the even more elite Special Republican Guards. The Iraqi strongman
has also hidden his armoury in schools, hospitals and places of worship-all
difficult targets for the invading soldiers. A city of five million, street-to-street
fighting would require intensive manpower, which the allied force is currently
short of. With Turkey's refusal to allow the US land forces to use its
territory to make an ingress into Iraq, the crucial offensive on the northern
front has not gained much momentum. The US Army's ace 4th Mechanized Infantry
that was to join the pincer movement against Baghdad was stranded in the
Mediterranean. Only now are they being moved to combat formations from
Kuwait.
At the same time the weather window is narrowing for the coalition,
with the temperatures in mid-April likely to soar to uncomfortable levels.
Dehydration would set in and supply lines would be under pressure. Blinding
desert storms that occur frequently during the summer would greatly hamper
movement. Saddam's tactics, therefore, would be to bog down the coalition
troops for weeks, if not months.
Will Saddam use chemical weapons?
This past week, the allied force discovered large quantities of chemical
weapons suits in caches of armour that they seized. This, they say, is
the smoking gun that proves Saddam has chemical weapons. Such reports
prompted UN chief inspector Hans Blix to say, "If the Iraqis ever
use chemical weapons then they are liars and world opinion will turn against
them." Tommy Franks puts it more blandly: "Then we win."
But will Saddam ever use the chemical weapons he is believed to have
stashed away in substantial quantities? US military analysts talk of the
Iraqi leader having drawn an invisible red line in Baghdad's defence.
If the US troops breach that, they believe it will prompt Saddam to employ
chemicals like sarin and VX that kill quickly. But the allied soldiers
are confident of weathering such attacks without many casualties, the
optimism arising from the fact that they are equipped and drilled for
such an eventuality.
Every soldier on the field is equipped with a special NBC (nuclear,
biological and chemical) suit that includes protective masks and antidotes
to counter chemical poisoning. Every day they are drilled on pulling on
the suits swiftly-nine seconds is the norm. They also learn how to decontaminate
their equipment. The NBC suits, however, add to the bulk the soldiers
have to carry. "It is like wearing a snowsuit and it can get very
stuffy," says Mary Xenikakis, a private first class in the US Army.
The April temperatures would make wearing the suits and masks for more
than a few minutes unbearable, thereby increasing their vulnerability
to chemical attacks. But Saddam is likely to resort to chemical weapons
only when he believes that all is lost-for he knows it will turn international
opinion completely against him. Another diversion Iraq could employ is
to have the Al-Qaida or its constituents carry out a major terrorist attack
elsewhere to distract US attention. But that could only make Bush more
determined to remove him. Saddam's best bet is to move the battle to the
cities and prolong it as long as possible.
Either way the next few weeks will see some of the bloodiest battles
every fought. The end game for taking control of Baghdad may turn out
to be the biggest nightmare for the US yet.