The features of the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq are just about beginning to become clear. The coming days will make the outcome obvious. At this stage, what can be said is that the situation has not materialised as expected by the Americans; it has been quite to the contrary.

The Americans first thought they could "decapitate" the Iraqi regime by directly hitting a selective target. But Saddam Hussein has not been "decapitated". The American had planned their invasion from both south and north. But while they could move into Iraq from Kuwait in the south, they failed to launch an invasion from the north because of Turkey's intransigence.

GUEST COLUMN

MOHAMED SID-AHMED

Yet another unexpected development, from the American perspective, is the upsurge of Iraqi nationalism. The Americans had expected an uprising against Saddam's regime. But what we are witnessing is patriotic solidarity and nationalism on the ground. This is despite the fact that Iraqi society is fragmented among the Kurds, the Shias and the Sunnis. It is being argued that there has been no uprising against the Iraqi regime because Saddam is still in power. At the same time, there are Iraqis living abroad who want to return home and fight the invaders.

To understand the impact of this war on Arab countries and in the Middle East, we have to take into account two factors-internal complications within Iraq that could erupt at any point and the possibility of Iraq's neighbouring countries being drawn into a conflict situation; the two are interlinked in more ways than one and could result in the present situation spinning out of control.

For instance, America cannot guarantee that the Kurds of Iraq will not break free and declare an independent state. This would have an impact on Turkey and lead to friction between the Turks and the Kurds. This issue is already reflected in the Turkish Parliament's resolution. Internal developments in Iraq could re-ignite tensions between Iraq and Iran that have been inherited from the eight-year war.

It is also possible that Iraq may yet attack Israel and the latter is more than likely to strike back. Although the Americans want Israel to stay out of the conflict, Ariel Sharon has not made any promises. The Iraq-Israel "equation" remains unresolved and could add a new dimension to the war.

What we are witnessing in Iraq is patriotic solidarity and nationalism on the ground.

In the event of a total American victory, a direct fallout will be a sea-change in Iraq-Israel relations as well as the redefining of the region's relations with Israel. This, in turn, will impact the unresolved Palestinian issue. With an absolutely pro-American regime in Iraq-something similar to the pre-1958 Baa'th revolution regime that was unabashedly pro-British-America's Iraqi and Israeli strategies will be integrated into a common strategy.

We will see a new alignment in the region: America, Iraq, Israel and maybe Jordan and some other countries. And this alignment will use a vanquished Iraq to solve some problems that plague the Israel-Palestine issue. For instance, the Law of Return can be made redundant by getting the Palestinians into Iraq instead of Palestine. There is also what I call the Transfer Solution: large numbers of Palestinians could be transferred from Gaza and the West Bank to Iraqi territory to reduce numbers within Palestinian areas. As for Jerusalem, many formulas can be thought of in this new situation.

With an America-backed Iraq emerging in the region and redefining the Palestinian issue, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which are at present the two key powers in the Middle East, will find themselves facing a competing force as well as tricky developments on the Palestinian issue. They will not be able to welcome these developments nor reject them.

As for implanting democracy in Iraq, I think the Americans have got it wrong. Can democracy be planted? Such an attempt to implant democracy on Iraq can only result in the uprooting of traditions as well as religious and cultural values. In any event, I do not think that transplanting democracy is the real objective of America. It is just a slogan. The real objective is getting control of Iraq's oil.

A last point: irrespective of whether American victory in this war is 100 per cent, 50 per cent or 30 per cent, there is no doubt that American intervention will destabilise the entire Middle East. Saddam, in a manner of speaking, froze the situation by imposing discipline through terror. That will no longer be the reality.

Mohamed Sid-Ahmed is a senior columnist for Al-Ahram, the largest circulated Arabic newspaper, and Al-Ahram Weekly, Cairo.