At first sight, Umm Qasr could be one of the myriad dilapidated towns that dot coastal India. Hardly the major port that till recently handled two-thirds of Iraq's marine exports. Poverty stares out from most of the single-storey mud and brick houses that line the main road. It is in stark contrast to the spiralling high rises and sweeping avenues of Kuwait City literally "bang" next door. Children in worn-out clothes chase the convoys of the US-led coalition forces begging for bottles of water. Unshaven men in sneakers and ill-fitting jackets plead for cigarettes.

SOFT TARGETS: Iraqis fleeing from Basra arrive at a checkpost manned by coalition soldiers outside the city

A fortnight after Operation Iraqi Freedom was launched, even as a decisive assault ons Baghdad was under way, this strategic sliver of land that juts out into the Persian Gulf remains the only town that the coalition forces could claim as a "liberated zone". A recognition of that reality is a signboard on the road that states: "Welcome to the Shatal Al Arab Hotel with its new gavernement (sic)." The Iraqis appear to be as proficient as Indian dhabas in spelling English words.

For the coalition forces, Umm Qasr is a test case on whether they could win over the "minds and the hearts" of Iraqis. It is a major sub-plot in the master plan of ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein, his regime and their weapons of mass destruction with the least amount of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The hope is to show the people that the forces mean no harm to them and to create a wave of popular dissent against Saddam all across Iraq making their mission of "liberating" the country less bloody.

That strategy becomes vital as coalition troops launch their final offensive on Baghdad, a city of five million. The forces' rapid advance to the capital in the past few days has come as a major surprise to military experts who opined that there was need for a strategic pause to build up sufficient troop strength. By taking Saddam International Airport early Friday morning, the coalition was signalling to the people of Iraq and the world that it was prepared to lay siege on the capital.

CLOSING IN: A fuel tank on fire at Baghdad airport

Unless there is a dramatic collapse in the regime, always possible in such situations, the stage is set for a bloody confrontation between coalition forces and Saddam's elite Republican Guards. It could result in an alarming rise in casualties among civilians who find themselves sandwiched in the war zones. That could cause worldwide horror and rob the coalition forces of a moral victory that it desperately needs.

Saddam knows that. The Iraqi dictator knows too that in the face of such overwhelming technological superiority, his best bet is to withdraw his forces into cities and towns and use civilians as human flak jackets to wage his counter offensive. To reach Baghdad so rapidly, coalition forces bypassed major cities and towns, including Basra, and only fought battles that were needed to clear their path towards reaching the capital (see graphic). That has left coalition forces dangerously short of troops to take on any major counter that Saddam may launch from these cities.

So the strategy now is to win the confidence of the people in other urban centres of Iraq so that they rise in revolt against Saddam and his writ is confined to Baghdad. As Colonel Chris Vernon, the British Army spokesman, says, "We are slowly but inexorably driving a wedge between the Iraqi people and their oppressors. The idea is to ensure that the control of the regime in major towns of Iraq lessens day by day."

Last week, as the coalition forces tried to restore a modicum of normality in Umm Qasr by getting the dock workers to report for work, it was evident just how difficult that task is proving to be. They had set up an informal town council which would send at least 1,000 of the 30,000 workers back to the docks. On the first day, only 50-odd turned up.

Most of them were afraid to be identified or photographed and refused to speak out. Some of them even shouted the slogan "Bel rooh, bel damm, nefdeek ya Saddam (With our soul, with our blood, we sacrifice ourselves for you Saddam)" because they feared that some of the dictator's spies were still hovering around. After much persuasion, a bearded Wahid explained: "Saddam's power is like magic and would be very difficult to destroy. The only way we know nothing will happen to us is when Saddam's dead body is paraded on the streets of Baghdad."

A US Marine confronts Enemy No. 1 at Nasiriyah

Umm Qasr should have been a fit case for a people's revolt. Despite Iraq having the second largest oil reserves in the world, next only to Saudi Arabia, Saddam had failed to bring them the prosperity that is so evident in neighbouring Gulf countries. Khalid, 35, has tears in his eyes as he recounts how three of his children died because there were no proper medical facilities in the town. The average salary for dock workers is a paltry $30 (Rs 1,440) a month and Khalid says, "I have waited for five years to buy a TV and I still can't afford to buy it."

The port town suffers from chronic water shortage that has worsened since the coalition forces took over. It prompted Kuwait to extend a 100-km-long pipeline from its reservoirs to bring water to the town and also to the city of Basra 20 km away. As the governor of Kuwait, Dr Sheikh Ebraheem Duaij Al-Ebrahim Al-Sabah, says, "Isn't it ironic that Iraq, which has two major rivers, is getting water from a thirsty country that draws water from the sea? It is an example of just how Saddam has brought his country to ruin."

It is, however, the continuing fear of Saddam and his henchmen that stops people living in the cities in southern Iraq from revolting. Sabah, a 20-year-old from neighbouring Basra city, speaks angrily of how most of them were conscripted into the army without their consent. "If we refused, Saddam's men would take it out on our families. They even torched my house once." Everyone fears the early morning knock on the door which is when the regime would strike at dissenters. Ali, who fled Basra after it was bombed by coalition forces, says, "You must understand that Saddam and his regime control everything. We live on their patronage. We are not certain that the coalition forces would stay on. If they back off, as they did in 1991, Saddam's men will burn us."

The Shias, who form 60 per cent of Iraq's 24 million population and live mostly in southern Iraq, have for long resented being ruled by the Sunni minority, especially the Tikrit tribe that Saddam belongs to. Everyone still remembers how immediately after the first Gulf War in 1991, coalition forces refused to come to their aid when they revolted against Saddam. Their rebellion was brutally crushed by the regime. Says Ali: "This time we fear that Saddam would annihilate our entire race if we side with the coalition. That's why we are not coming out against him and are waiting for him to fall."

SOFT AND HARD: British troops persuading dock workers to return in Umm Qasr; and (below) a commando patrols one of its streets

That fear has undone what was to be termed as the "inside-out" strategy of the coalition forces. While Baghdad was to be brought to heel with the "shock and awe" bombings, the rest of Iraq's major towns, witnessing the daily fireworks in the capital, were expected to welcome the coalition forces as liberators. The forces had hoped that if they could win the people in the other cities, Saddam's regime in Baghdad would implode. That hasn't happened. No major urban centre, whether Basra, the country's second largest city, or Nasiriyah, Samawah, Najaf and Karbala, showed any signs of capitulating or greeting the coalition forces with garlands. Instead the forces had to engage in pitched battles with the Iraqi Army or Saddam's fidayeen squads. A senior US military officer says, "It is now the other way round. The Iraqi people are telling us, 'First get Saddam then we will believe you'."

Maybe that was part of the reason why coalition forces launched a ferocious assault on Baghdad in the past few days. Even as they pound Republican Guard positions in the capital, coalition forces are going to extraordinary lengths to woo people in other major urban centres including Basra. Saddam may not be living up to the slogan coined by his supporters: "Saddam esmik hazz Amreeca (Saddam, your name sends fear to America)." But the Iraqi dictator's strategy has so far been to withdraw his troops and their armour into major urban centres and engage coalition forces in guerrilla battles. To prevent coalition aircraft from sending precision missiles, Iraqi forces hide their armour behind mosques, school buildings and hospitals. Saddam has also employed his fidayeen groups dressed in civilian garb to carry out devastating suicide attacks against coalition forces. It has made the forces extremely nervous while dealing with civilians and winning their confidence. Says a US battalion commander: "Now every civilian is looked upon as a potential combatant."

Just how jittery the coalition forces have become was evident last week when a US personnel at a checkpost outside the holy city of Najah fired at a car carrying civilians, killing seven of them. As the Iraqi people find themselves trapped between Saddam's henchmen and the Allied forces, civilian casualties are mounting. Since the war began, Iraq says 1,250 civilians have died and 5,000 injured. Group Captain Jon Fynes, the Royal Air Force, spokesperson, says that their pilots are instructed to be extra careful when they bomb cities. Last week, an RAF pilot launched a missile at Basra to strike at some tanks. But as he flew past he noticed that there was a school building next to them so he immediately diverted the missile to explode harmlessly in the desert. Says Fynes: "We understand that we don't free Iraqis by massacring them or flattening their cities. Yet we have to build their confidence that we can take on Saddam's regime at will. It is a very difficult balancing act."

THE OTHER BATTLE: Coalition troops struggle to plug an oil well fire set off by retreating Iraqi troops at the Rumaila oil fields

The British forces in southern Iraq have adopted some unconventional methods to achieve this in Basra. Part of this is a strategy called Black Watch, which essentially demonstrates to the people that they could move into the city with impunity and take on resistance forces at will. Instead of only armour, they have targeted the ruling Baa'th party by decimating its headquarters and making lightning strikes to capture their leaders and then withdrawing. To demonstrate that the forces could get into the city whenever it wanted, a column of tanks rolled into the heart of Basra last week, deliberately rammed into two giant billboards that had Saddam's portrait painted on them and withdrew. Daniel Prewitt, representative, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies, observes, "I have never seen the military so concerned about people's welfare. It has almost become a mantra."

Part of the coalition forces strategy is to keep Iraq's major infrastructure largely intact. Among the first tasks of the US marines was to capture the Rumaila oil fields in southern Iraq before Saddam's men torched the 1,000 odd wells. As these oil fields account for two-thirds of the country's oil production it would have been an economic catastrophe if they had succeeded. The Iraqi forces managed to set nine of them on fire. In each of these wells, 10,000 barrels of oil is being burned daily, costing $500,000 (Rs 2.4 crore). On one of the wells, the heat was so intense that it could be felt as far as 200 m away.

Last week, the US Corp of Engineers moved in to fight the fires. Apart from a US company, it hired the Kuwait Oil Corporation to put out a few wells. The Corp of Engineers hope to restore Iraq's oil infrastructure within two months. US Major Jorge Lizaralde says confidently, "There is nothing Iraq can do which we can't control." Most of his comrades are as cocky and they have good reason to be. Compared to Saddam's troops they are well equipped and well fed. At lunch time near the Rumaila oil fields, US marines guarding them were busy choosing what they would like to eat. Their Meals Ready to Eat (MRE) packs offered a choice of mushroom beef, chicken and rice, turkey breast, jambalaya (a mixture of several meats) and for vegetarians cheese tortellino or pasta with tomato sauce. They come with a special technology to heat the food without lighting a fire. There is a variety of desserts and chocolates and to round up, the mandatory chewing gum.

The coalition forces have also shown a remarkable degree of adaptability in their plans. US General Tommy Franks, commander-in-chief of the coalition forces, said the strategy was "agile and flexible". When everyone thought Operation Iraqi Freedom would begin with thunder and lightning over Baghdad, the forces launched a pre-emptive strike against Saddam. Then, even as coalition forces bombed Baghdad, Franks surprised Saddam by making coalition troops sprint towards the capital covering 500 km in a week across the desert.

When the "inside-out" strategy didn't work at Basra, Franks altered plans and decided that he wouldn't wait for major towns to fall. Instead, coalition forces worked on the strategy of isolating Iraqi troops in various cities like Karbala, Najaf, Nasiriyah and Basra before "pointing the dagger" at the heart of Baghdad. It may have stretched coalition supply lines and made them vulnerable to attacks from fidayeen. It has also left his forces short of strength to launch a full-scale assault on Baghdad. But the plan is to go for Saddam's jugular before he can adjust his strategy to take the coalition forces in the capital.

Though the Iraqi forces have put up a surprising degree of resistance in the battle for the towns, Saddam's response to some situations has been puzzling. He was expected to order his troops to blow up bridges leading to Baghdad but that hasn't happened. It could indicate a failure in command and control. He has also allowed US troops to penetrate deep into Baghdad without offering too much resistance. It could mean a complete collapse of command. Or a sign that he is drawing coalition troops into a trap before launching a major counter offensive that could involve a chemical weapon attack. As in other cities, he would be using civilians as a shield to hide his armour in Baghdad. When the final assault comes, it may well turn out to be the bloodiest battle ever, something that could see thousands of Iraqis and coalition troops perish.