As
land hassles stem the flow of NRI investment in Punjab, the Government
takes steps to ease the legal woes of expatriates.
WEB
ONLY FEATURES
The
rampant misuse of the Dalit Act in Uttar Pradesh has a larger malaise behind
it, writes India Today's Subhash Mishra UNDUE
ADVANTAGE
INDIA
TODAY CONCLAVE
The
Conclave concludes on a high note. Al Gore, Stanley Fischer and other world
leaders listen and are heard. Catch up on the highlights. Take
me to Conclave now
CARE
TODAY
INDIA
TODAY HINDI
CURRENT
ISSUE APRIL 21, 2003
COVER STORY: INDO PAK RELATIONS
A New Worry
As India prepares for a
hot summer on the border, a dip in its post-Iraq war relations with the
US may complicate matters.
By
Indrani Bagchi
Trying
to navigate between A diplomatic Scylla and Charybdis, India might be
facing the worst of both worlds-a defiantly terrorist Pakistan and a victorious
US in the mood to see India sweat after Delhi turned against it on Iraq.
India's problems with Pakistan are set to heat up this summer and Delhi
holds Washington's conciliatory policies on Pakistan partly responsible.
Taking a leaf out of the US' book, Delhi even has some unilateral action
plans up its sleeve after high-level intelligence reports pointed to the
presence of 1,200-1,500 jehadis along the loc. But after opposing the
US on Iraq just when it had won the war, India will need to do a lot of
damage control for some much-needed diplomatic ballast.
THREE IS A CROWD: The US wants Musharraf (above)
to stay; Vajpayee's (below) "middle path
India's pique peaked after the US State Department asked for a resumption
of dialogue with Pakistan the day after the March 24 Nadimarg massacre.
Indian reaction was instant and sharp, with increased rhetoric against
the US and Pakistan. Indian leaders got carried away and only succeeded
in upsetting India's equation with the US on its action in Iraq. Deputy
Prime Minister L.K. Advani declared that truth was not on the side of
the US, while Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha's equating Iraq and Pakistan
("Pakistan is a fit case for pre-emptive strikes") attracted
instant retribution from the US.
It was India's attempt at coercive diplomacy, but it didn't work. Instead,
it complicated matters with the US enough to warrant a damage-control
exercise. Sinha might have to "explain" things to US Secretary
of State Colin Powell while National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra prepares
to travel to the US to ease the "discomfiture" in the Bush Administration.
Last year, Mishra's talks with US counterpart Condoleezza Rice led India
to believe it had once and for all broken the US habit of yoking India
and Pakistan together. India, he said, would deal with Pakistan on its
own terms. The strategy: no dialogue but heightened security, better intelligence
and more strikes on militants. The US also assured Advani it would get
Pakistan to hand over the list of 20 terrorists, without success.
India had other reasons to expect a better deal from the US. The "middle
path" advocated by Mishra and Vajpayee on Iraq was partly driven
by the desire to provide an incentive to the US to help keep Pakistani
terrorism in check.
This strategy worked well until February, specially during the Jammu
and Kashmir assembly elections when the US kept Pakistan on a leash and
the Hurriyat at bay while India conducted a credible election. But the
strategy slipped out of India's grasp because it depended on the US continuing
with its pressure tactics on Pakistan. This did not happen.
The ease-up was evident when Pakistan released jehadi leaders like Hafiz
Saeed and returned to regrouping terrorist bands to strike India and Afghanistan.
The list of 20 remained in Pakistan. India believes Islamabad is extending
limited cooperation to the US by only handing over Arab Al-Qaida elements,
while protecting domestic terrorists. This way, it can continue supporting
the US war on terror while winking at terrorist operations by jehadi groups
in Kashmir
When the North Korea-Pakistan WMD nuclear link was exposed last year,
the US responded in March with sanctions on the A.Q. Khan Research Laboratories
(KRL), Islamabad, which were perceived to be more cosmetic than real.
KRL, Indian officials insist, is not an independent entity but is at the
heart of Pakistan's nuclear programme. Yet a phone call from President
Pervez Musharraf and the US modified the order "for a specific missile-related
transfer", as the State Department put it. This was clearly a pre-emptive
action to prevent Pakistan coming under more comprehensive sanctions under
the US Symington Amendment, which prohibits economic assistance and military
aid unless the President certifies that Pakistan has not obtained any
nuclear-enriched material.
India's disappointment was compounded by the lavish infusion of US funds
into Pakistan. To reward its ally, the US has paved the way for $1.5 billion
in new grants, more than $5 billion in loans and rescheduling of $12.5
billion in bilateral debt with the Paris Club. Last week, the US announced
it had waived $1 billion of Pakistan's debt; the remaining $2.3 billion
was rescheduled over 38 years.
India is convinced that whatever "pressure" the US puts on
Pakistan to stop cross-border terrorism, it will always fall short of
what is required. The only pressure Pakistan will obey is economic but
the US is loath to apply that. This is not merely to reward Musharraf
for being a staunch ally-he was even seen managing his domestic pressures
during the Iraq war-but primarily because the US wants Musharraf to remain
in power.
Adding insult to injury, Shirin Tahir-Kheli, a Pakistani-American, was
quietly appointed senior director in the US National Security Council
three weeks ago. Although she will be looking only after democracy issues,
it is a diplomatic setback for India. More recently, UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan named Pakistani Rafeeuddin Ahmed as his pointsman for Iraq-definitely
not music to the Indian ears.
The final straw for India was the American prescription for dialogue
on March 25. The sharp Indian reaction led the US to remedy matters with
a Powell-Jack Straw joint statement a week later. Consequently, US officials
believe India lashing out at them is somewhat unjustified. The joint statement
they point out, endorsed many of India's positions and for the first time
held Pakistan responsible for the terrorist acts in Kashmir, and the need
to respect the loc. However, they too privately admit to goofing up on
the first statement by the US State Department.
So how does India "subdue" a more terrorism-minded Pakistan?
Confusion reigns in the Indian establishment about how much it wants to
involve foreign powers specially in the aftermath of the US experience.
"It is flogging a dead horse," said a senior official. Military
strikes against Pakistan, though an option, is not being considered at
present, the basic reason being that the overwhelming military asymmetry
that exists between the US and Iraq is not in evidence here.
In the immediate term, India is considering two options: conduct special
forces operations against Pakistan-based terrorist camps and intervene
in Pakistan's internal politics. Its most benign form will be to promote
democracy in Pakistan, again taking a leaf out of the US book. It will
be a challenge to avoid engaging the regime while actively encouraging
people's participation, but this is increasingly part of the Indian strategy
on Pakistan. It also provides a ready reason for India not holding talks
with the military regime-thereby denying it the much-needed legitimacy
as India's official dialogue partner, as crucial as being a friend of
the US.