India's estimated 20 million tobacco users may have missed the mother of all statutory warnings. On April 9, the Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Bill 2001 was quietly tabled in the Rajya Sabha and swiftly passed the same day. For a bill that was in the making for 11 years-it was first proposed in August 1992-that was surprisingly smooth sailing.

On the face of it, the bill is significant. It bans advertising of all tobacco products throughout the country. That's a giant leap forward from the Cigarettes Act of 1975 which restricted advertising and sale of only cigarettes which account for less than 20 per cent of tobacco consumption in India.

The bill, which is likely to be cleared by the Lok Sabha this month, also provides for bigger and clearer display of health warnings, restricts the sale of tobacco products in most public places and attempts to end the existing legal discrimination between cigarette and other tobacco products (see graphic). For instance, bidis-which have the largest share of 45 per cent in total tobacco consumption-were so far exempt from carrying the statutory health warning. The proposed law also puts India among the front-running countries that have put a comprehensive ban on tobacco ads. "It is one of the most progressive public health laws of recent times in India," says Ambika Srivastava, who has been working on tobacco related issues with the WHO.

That is as far as the letter of the bill is concerned. In its spirit, however, the bill is softer on unorganised sectors of the tobacco industry. At least that is what a section of the Rs 35,000-crore industry fears. The skepticism stems from the unique consumption pattern of tobacco in India. In developed countries, tobacco use is synonymous with cigarette smoking. But in India, an estimated 80 per cent of tobacco consumption is in the form of bidis and chewing tobacco. That would not have been an issue if the tobacco industry was organised, making its regulation easier. A large chunk of bidi and chewing tobacco manufacturing is a small-scale-in some cases even a household-activity. Says Amit C. Sarkar, director of the Delhi-based Tobacco Institute of India: "We will fully support a legislation that is pragmatic. But the current bill has certain provisions that are counterproductive in the Indian context and should be revised."

The cigarette industry claims that by being stricter on them, the bill will cause a shift of tobacco consumption from cigarettes to other forms. Besides provisions like declaration of nicotine and tar content and display of pictorial warnings will not apply to tobacco products not sold in packets. Praful Patel, a Nationalist Congress Party member of the Rajya Sabha and one of the biggest bidi manufacturers in the country, admits that the bill's impact, in the first instance, will be greater on the cigarette industry simply because it is more organised and spends a larger amount on advertising. "Bidi industry is anyway being hit because urban markets are shifting to cigarettes while chewing tobacco is becoming more popular in rural areas," he points out.

The Health Ministry, which drafted and steered the bill, finds the law non-discriminatory. In fact, the original bill tabled in the Rajya Sabha in 2001 was applicable only to the cigarette industry. The revised bill includes all tobacco products. "We are banning neither the production nor the sale of tobacco products. The bill only prohibits advertising and aims to create better awareness," says Bhawani Thyagarajan, joint secretary in the Health Ministry. And since the consumption is aimed to be curbed through a ban on ads, the impact on employment and tobacco farming will be gradual.

The support of states will be key in the implementation of the bill, especially on products other than cigarettes. And here the political clout of big bidi manufacturers, especially in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, could be a deterrent.

A segment of the tobacco industry that will be hit the least is chewing tobacco. The organised players in the chewing tobacco industry though promise to follow the new bill. "We will start printing nicotine and tar content on all our tobacco products as soon as the law demands it," claims Ashok Agarwal, president of DS Foods which owns brands like Baba and Tulsi.

The bill also prohibits sale of tobacco products within 100 yards of all educational institutions. It is a lofty provision since the sale of tobacco products to minors is already prohibited. Besides, the definition of an educational institution isn't clear-if it includes coaching centres and cybercafes, then the bill could cover the whole of India.

The main weapon of the bill though is the ban on advertising. And the key question is: do advertising bans reduce tobacco consumption? According to who, the answer is yes. A study conducted by who shows that the ban on tobacco advertising in Norway, Finland, New Zealand and Canada brought down consumption by 4-9 per cent between 1977 and 1992. On the other hand, the cigarette industry claims that in most countries cigarette consumption has risen following advertising bans.

Whatever the argument and effectiveness, everybody has accepted the reality of the ban. What is unclear though is the fate of surrogate advertising. The bill proposes to "ban all direct and indirect" ads of tobacco. Agarwal is in favour of an all-encompassing ban, but experts aren't sure if surrogate advertising can be legally proven and prohibited. The Government also needs to ensure that foreign tobacco companies don't sneak in ads through the print and electronic media of countries where the ban is not as rigorous as in India.

The tobacco industry's adspend is about Rs 350 crore a year-9 per cent of the Rs 4,000-crore annual advertising in print media. Says Preet K.S. Bedi, president-designate of ad agency Rediffusion: "The size of advertising is a non-issue in deciding on ad bans on tobacco. Not because the advertising size today isn't very big but because such bans are determined by bigger and loftier factors."

In the end, the bill's worth will be tested on how uniformally it curbs all forms of tobacco consumption.