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ISSUE MAY 05, 2003
DIPLOMACY: INDIA-US RELATIONS
Mending Fences
Delhi and Washington are repairing ties damaged
by the Iraq war and moving them beyond a plateau
By Indrani Bagchi
You cannot
hear the hammers at work but repair work is in progress. The delicate
but vital Indo-US relations is being patched up. It is not merely the
ill-timed Iraq resolution that has necessitated this exercise. The relationship
had plateaued off even in high-movement areas. Iraq is only the latest
rap.
Fortunately, both countries are quick to recognise that fences need
to be mended. The areas that need focused treatment are Pakistan and Iraq.
The abrupt departure of US ambassador to India Robert Blackwill has reopened
old grouses with the US State Department. Other outstanding areas include
increased lobbying space in Washington, speeding up cooperation on the
"holy trinity"-space, civilian nuclear energy and high technology-and
engaging Washington on potentially thorny issues like India's cooperation
with Iran. Delhi's primary concern now is how to deal with the hyper power
without compromising core national interests. External Affairs Minister
Yashwant Sinha set the trend by asking Parliament to abjure "compulsive
hostility" against the US as this is not in India's interests.
A STEP AT A TIME: Sinha explained India's stance
on Iraq to Powell (left)
On Pakistan, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has risen above the
ministerial chatter on pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan with his peace
offer. This diplomatic stroke has put the US to test on its promises to
sit hard on Pakistan. It has ensured that US Deputy Secretary of State
Richard Armitage's India visit beginning May 10 will be dominated not
by India's stand on Iraq or pre-emption but by whether the US can get
Pakistan to stop terrorism.
There is no escaping the fact, however, that the bulk of fence-mending
will focus on the Iraq breach. After the spectacularly ill-timed parliamentary
resolution, Indian officials have burned up the phone lines to Washington.
India, they point out, did not criticise the US at the UN, prevented an
anti-US resolution at NAM and diligently toed the middle path throughout
the war. The resolution, when it came, not only did not affect the US,
but was purely an expression of domestic sentiment.
In US think tanks, the mood is non-confrontational. Says James Noyes,
senior fellow at the Hoover Institution: "We are so used to our own
Congress moving resolutions that the Indian Parliament action does not
surprise us. Given the colonial history, the action of political parties
is understandable."
ROBERT BLACKWILL
Losing
a friend Even if Robert Blackwill made his guests sing for their supper
at roundtable gatherings, the professorial US ambassador-who quit
last week to return to Harvard University-has earned a place in Indian
hearts with his now-famous line that the US' war on international
terrorism cannot be won unless terrorism against India ends permanently.
It was a dig at his own Government for being insensitive to Indian
claims on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.
In fact, the last two years of Blackwill's stay at Delhi's Roosevelt
House has had many positives for the India-US relationship: the
end of sanctions, working groups on high technology, counter-terrorism,
HIV/AIDS and renewal of military-to-military relationship. These
successes were scored in spite of the naysayers in the US State
Department-Blackwill used his personal clout to push things through
in a way in which a career diplomat would not be able to. It is
only to be expected that this hectic pace will slow down somewhat
during the next incumbent's tenure.
With Blackwill gone, India will lose that extra bit of lobbying
power it had in Washington. If the India policy is left solely in
the charge of the State Department and its South Asia bureau, policywatchers
in India fear a return to the old hyphenated relationship defined
by Pakistan. Certainly neither US Assistant Secretary of State for
South Asia Christina Rocca nor her boss, Secretary of State Colin
Powell, has given any cause to believe otherwise. The problem Blackwill
faced with the State Department was not merely on the pace of the
India-US relationship but the sequencing of actions vis-a-vis Pakistan.
He does not believe that India has to hold a dialogue with Pakistan
before terrorism comes to an end, a view clearly not shared by Rocca
who authored the statement calling for a dialogue after Nadimarg.
Another loss for India will be Richard Haass, director, policy planning
in the State Department, who is also due to leave this summer. He,
like Blackwill, helped put the India-vision in a strategic perspective.
The new US ambassador to India is likely to be a career diplomat.
The frontrunner is Jeff Davidov, former ambassador to Mexico. Danielle
Plekta of the American Enterprise Institute and Benjamin Gilman,
former chairman of the House International Relations Committee,
are the other names in circulation.
Blackwill, meanwhile, is not headed for academic oblivion. If
the rumour mills are correct, National Security Advisor Condoleezza
Rice may replace Dick Cheney as George W. Bush's running mate for
2004 and that the President will advance the launch of his campaign
to coincide with the 9/11 anniversary. As a prized member of the
Vulcans, Bush's foreign policy group, and a close friend of Rice,
Blackwill can hope to land a better job next time.
-Indrani Bagchi
Both the US and the UK seem to have accepted the argument. Foreign Secretary
Kanwal Sibal and National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra spared no efforts
to convince Blackwill and British High Commissioner Rob Young. Now Mishra
will be carrying the same message to Washington and to the Council for
Foreign Relations which he is scheduled to address on May 7.
India's diplomatic exercise has a twofold objective: first, it wants
to build up the pitch for reconstruction projects in a post-war Iraq,
and second, it wants to rebuild bridges with the only lobby that matters
in Washington, the neo-conservatives. It might prove less difficult than
it seems. Though the resolution tied India to working in Iraq under the
aegis of the UN, South Block has nuanced it to the extent that India can
now use the World Food Programme or the World Bank label as a fig leaf.
Besides, the private sector has been given free rein to secure any sub-contracts
it can get. The thin end of the wedge will be a $20 million (Rs 95 crore)
humanitarian package, including 50,000 tonnes of wheat. India will also
be handling about $3 million in projects under the restarted UN Oil-for-Food
programme. Says R.M. Abhyankar, secretary in the MEA: "It would place
us in a position to contribute to the reconstruction process."
That claim is yet to become a reality. For the present, USAID is in
charge of the reconstruction and has given out contracts only to large
US firms like Halliburton and Bechtel. Indian companies can only try for
sub-contracts. CII has asked about 50 companies (Hindustan Construction,
L&T, Kirloskar, Ashok Leyland, among others) to register with USAID
and launched an aggressive lobbying campaign. Narayan Keshavan, former
executive director, Congressional Caucus on India, believes that "the
best way to do this is for Indian firms to tie up with Indian-American
companies. Unless Indian firms adopt creative approaches, India will once
again be supplying 'coolies' for projects in Iraq."
Re-engaging the neo-conservative lobby in Washington will, however,
require some creative diplomacy. Members of Republican think tanks, like
the Heritage Foundation and American Enterprise Institute, and the likes
of Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld within the George W. Bush Administration,
were in favour of India playing a role in the new strategic order. These
were the same people who supported the war in Iraq and India's stand has
been disappointing, to say the least.
Another issue that requires careful handling is India's burgeoning relationship
with Iran. The US has asked India to explain the contours of this relationship.
Delhi argues there is nothing in its ties with Teheran that Washington
need be afraid of.
India is happy to reiterate its size and history as a measure of its
importance, but it will take several bold policy steps to stave off the
danger of falling off the radar screens of the decision-makers in Washington.
As a State Department official says, "Few India-specific issues,
apart from a possible war with Pakistan, land on Condi's (National Security
Advisor Condoleezza Rice) table. This has to change."
And therein lies India's thorniest challenge. To work with a State Department
that is openly hyphenated, mostly in favour of Pakistan, is a trial. An
assistant secretary of state, Christina Rocca, fast replacing Robin Raphel
as the resident demon-Rocca was the author of the infamous State Department
statement after Nadimarg advocating a dialogue-and the absence of an ambassador
who often used his personal connections in the White House to outrun State
Department's glacial pace on Indo-US issues will require all the skill
South Block can muster.
These issues ceasing to matter depends on the commercial juice in the
relationship. A lot needs to be done on the reforms front to rid the relations
of their "flat-as-a-chapati" tag. According to Danielle Pletka,
vice-president, Foreign and Defence Policy Studies, American Enterprise
Institute, "The US has always seen the relationship through the prism
of counter to China, Russia and relations with Pakistan. There is a need
to look on bilateral relationship with the focus on economics." India
and the US have crested the Iraq "bump" but the road ahead requires
closer companionship.