The Taliban, for all the world's concern, may well be a horror consigned to history. But for the US engaged in prime-time cleansing of Iraq, history could repeat itself-if the resurgence of the Taliban is anything to go by. For, from its safe haven in Pakistan and aided by militant groups and the ISI, the one-time terror machine of Afghanistan is regrouping not only to threaten the Hamid Karzai Government but also the much-touted US war on terror.

LINE OF CONTROL: Karzai with Pakistan Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali in Islamabad

"The success of Afghanistan's stability is in US' interest and any effort that undermines it is a challenge," said US special envoy to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad, who was pulled out of Iraq recently to read the riot act to Pakistan. This, after his troubleshooting visits along with head of US Central Command General Tommy Franks during the Iraq war. The US faces a piquant situation: while it supports both Afghan President Karzai and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, it is the Pakistani establishment that threatens to unravel Afghanistan again.

While sending streams of Taliban fighters back into Afghanistan to keep the southern and eastern regions in perpetual ferment, Pakistan has also allowed its border troops to encroach into Afghan territory, drawing fire and protests from Kabul. The two sides recently faced off after about 800 Pakistani militia occupied a border village in Khost where the Taliban has been active. The fact that several Taliban operatives were found with Pakistani identity cards has complicated things for Islamabad. In fact, the border security problem dominated the talks between Karzai and Musharraf who met last week to defuse the crisis. "Musharraf's policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds is coming home to roost," says G. Parthasarathy, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan.

For India, the activation of jehad factories in Pakistan is equally worrisome. The Taliban cadres are emerging from the same madarsas that target India.

LINE OF CONTROL: US soldiers at Kandahar air base carry the coffin of a friend killed in an ambush

The real reason for the Taliban's revitalisation lies elsewhere. As William Maley, an expert on Afghan affairs, puts it, "The root cause is in Pakistan, where the Taliban continues to use the North-west Frontier Province (NWFP) as a base. Some in Islamabad see this as reserving capacity for Pakistan to shape the course of Afghan politics. Washington is ill-placed to do much about it as it is convinced that despite Musharraf regime's flaws, any other alternative would be worse."

Rahimullah Yusufzai, another Afghan analyst, believes the Taliban's resurgence will gather steam over time. "The US presence in Afghanistan has not seen any visible improvement in security or economy. Almost two million refugees have returned from Pakistan and Iran, but with no jobs or medical aid it is natural to turn against the US."

Besides, Pashtoons nurse a special grudge against the US because they believe that while Karzai may be a Pashtoon, he has been imposed on them. "They feel left out of the Government, the lion's share of which is with the Tajik Northern Alliance. Since Pashtoons form the core of the Taliban, a resurgence was only to be expected," adds Yusufzai.

The Taliban attacks are well-directed, targeting either foreigners, the Afghans working for the Government or international organisations. They are having the desired effect. The International Red Cross and other aid organisations have either suspended operations or moved out key staffers.

Some sections in India believe the return of the Taliban hints at the unravelling of US policy in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and that the worsening situation will expose the folly of keeping Musharraf wrapped in cottonwool. According to Ahmed Rashid, author of Jihad, the Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia, the US continues to support and fund local warlords, many of whom are sheltering the Taliban. "The US should review its policy on funding warlords which is undermining its own goals in the region," says Rashid. "What is needed is a massive show of force against them."

But this is far from coming. Karzai is not helping matters, having failed to extend his authority outside Kabul. His US bodyguards are an image problem, as is his inability to rope in regional leaders. India believes Karzai should aim at a loose federal structure while the country's army and police force are still in the formative stages. But till the regional leaders realise he is the moneybags instead of the US Army, this is unlikely to happen.

Rashid is also critical of the lack of aid and reconstruction in Afghanistan. This seriously impacts the efforts by the US and Karzai to win over the people. To be fair, Karzai recognises this and has made passionate appeals for money, but with Iraq's reconstruction dominating the world, it is unlikely much will be left for Afghanistan.

According to Afghan watchers, three main groups are behind the present violence. There is the Taliban alliance with rebel commander Gulbuddin Hekmatyar of the Hizb-e-Islami, which is supported by Pakistan and financed by militant Arabs. Another faction is led by Mullah Omar, suspected to be in Pakistan. While one of his chief commanders Mullah Dadullah was behind the recent killing of a Red Cross worker, Maulavi Akhtar Muhammad Usmani, who planned the ambush of US military officials this month, is close to Omar and the ISI. The last group is the outlawed Jaish-e-Mohammed with links to Osama bin Laden, and the cause of the biggest concern for Delhi since it is jehadis from this group who target India. Pakistan is the hub for the Taliban, helped by the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) in NWFP and Baluchistan. "Many MMA leaders attribute their electoral success to the Taliban," says Yusufzai.

It is possible the US will undertake a massive exercise to flush out the Taliban; the current de-weaponisation drive has yielded huge caches of arms and ammunition. It is unlikely the US will allow the Taliban to regroup to its former strength. Washington will not let Karzai fall but neither will it let Musharraf collapse. A long-term solution will be to extend the international security force beyond Kabul while the US beefs up the central authority by withdrawing support to the warlords. The real test, however, will be whether the US can apply enough pressure on Musharraf.

India's long-term interests in Afghanistan include a friendly government that is not extremist, especially with fresh political and economic concerns-the newly established consulates and the opening up of business avenues. A revival of the Taliban, therefore, will not be in India's interests.