It can be safely predicted that China and India, two of the most populous countries and fastest growing economies in the world, will emerge as great powers in this century. It would also not be unreasonable to predict that China will attain that status before India. These trends will influence the foreign policies of both the countries as well as their mutual relations.

Reflecting their aspirations to a powerful status, both India and China maintain that international relations are currently in transition from a unipolar to a multipolar system. These statements should be seen simply as a theoretical exercise in identifying future trends. It would be a mistake to invest them with any operational significance. Neither country has any interest in actively opposing unipolarity, or American hegemony, on any issue where its national interests are not directly involved. China's low profile in the Security Council debates on Iraq is a lesson in pragmatic diplomacy. Both countries realise that their economic goals cannot be achieved without good relations with the US. Besides, India's US policy is reinforced by political factors and close civil society ties.

The fact that they both subscribe to the multipolarity thesis does not mean that they necessarily have the same vision of a multipolar order. China expects to be recognised as a great power relatively early and has shown no particular interest in holding open the door to others thereafter. It has not opposed India's claim to a permanent seat in the Security Council, but neither has it endorsed it.

The relations between the two rising powers will reflect competitive as well as complementary interests. Both countries should recognise, however, that their basic interests are complementary in character. In the economic sphere, their rapidly expanding markets offer new opportunities that far outweigh the challenges of competition. In the political sphere, sustained internal stability in China is of very real importance for India and other neighbouring countries, as an unstable China could pose a big danger. Likewise, India's continued adherence to an independent and self-reliant foreign and defence policy is in accord with China's interests. If India were ever to lose confidence in its ability to defend itself against a regional power, it would have no option but to turn to a global superpower for help.

In general, India-China relations are moving on the right track. Though the boundary issue is yet to be resolved, border conflicts have been averted by the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control. Confidence-building measures have been implemented and military contacts have been deepened. Bilateral trade rose from $3 billion in 2001 to $5 billion in 2002 and saw a spectacular increase of over 70 per cent between January and April this year, compared to the same period last year. This augurs well for achieving the $10 billion target indicated by former premier Zhu Rongji during his visit to India last year. Besides, direct flights have been introduced and India has been included as an approved destination for Chinese tourists. Most importantly, regular high-level visits have provided the necessary impetus for strengthening the bilateral ties.

To further strengthen these ties, China and India should be sensitive to each other's legitimate concerns. China is the only country that does not recognise Sikkim as an integral part of India. On its part, India should continue to be sensitive to legitimate Chinese concerns over the activities of Tibetans in India. Though most of these Tibetans are law-abiding, a few troublemakers do not hesitate to defy the law, especially during visits by Chinese leaders. On several occasions, India has had to take firm action to prevent such unlawful activities as are prejudicial to its national interests. At the same time, India cannot prevent anyone from exercising his or her legal right to freedom of expression and China should realise this fact.

These issues will doubtless figure in A.B. Vajpayee's talks with the Chinese leaders. The Ministry of External Affairs has made careful preparations and there is every reason to believe that the visit will have a positive outcome. Speculation over what might emerge on specific issues will not help the negotiators. Instead, it will raise public expectations and pressurise the negotiators to show their hand in advance or ensure "success" by making inappropriate concessions. We must remember that the goal of diplomacy is to arrive at open agreements through confidential negotiations.

The author is a former Indian ambassador to China and is currently associated with the Observer Research Foundation.