The hills were alive with the sound of ... well, Sonia. At one level, the Congress party's conclave or the Vichar Manthan Shivir as it is called, held in the bracing hill resort of Shimla, crafted the perfect script for a future teleserial Bahu Bhi Ab Saas Banegi. At another, the Shivir was all about the repackaging of party President Sonia Gandhi in the image of her late mother-in-law Indira. At the end of the conclave's three-day deliberations, the strategy for the coming electoral battle was clear: project Sonia as prime minister. Yet, forge pre- and post-poll alliances with "secular" parties willing to accept Sonia as the undisputed leader of any future government formation at the Centre.

SONIA SAVE US: The conclave went the whole hog projecting party President Sonia as prime minister-in-waiting

It is, however, the "Sonia as Indira" card that will be the biggest challenge. Sonia, as the electorate knows fully well, is no Indira who used a mixture of political guile, an iron lady image and canny statecraft to rule India for 15 years. Despite the reality, the Congress spinmeisters are trying to fill new wine in a vintage bottle. That explains the tone and content of Sonia's message and her projected image in Shimla. Her tough stand on national security and compassion for the poor (shades of Indira after her Bangladesh victory and her hugely successful Garibi Hatao slogan) were what the public got to see. For the Congress think tank, this is a winning election formula.

After dithering and debating on the issue for the past seven years, the Congress' new strategy is a combination of the classic choice-guns or butter. The Shimla Sankalp's "beacon''-"Congress ka haath garib ke saath (The Congress with the poor)''-is supposed to win over the deprived sections, while the aggressive enunciation of security is not only aimed at unmasking the BJP's primary poll agenda of suraksha (security), but also to appeal to the patriotically charged middle class.

First the good news...

The party strategists had chosen an emotive issue, national security, for Sonia to focus on. Her frontal attack on BJP-style suraksha was meant to hit the party where it hurt the most. Her inaugural speech at the Shivir blasted the BJP-led NDA Government for having "failed miserably on security". An uncharacteristically aggressive Sonia went on to declare that the NDA had been "unable to combat terrorism effectively. Never before have terrorist attacks been so extensive and brazen. Worse, it is using terrorism as a pretext to polarise our society". The historic Peterhof complex, the venue for the conclave, erupted in applause.

Sonia trotted out some damning figures and statistics. In the past three years, an amount of almost Rs 24,000 crore from the defence budget was not spent, thus weakening the country's security. She talked about the Rs 4,200 crore Kargil surcharge, funds which "in a gross betrayal of the people of the country ... were diverted for other purposes". All this, according to her, had been pointed out by the Standing Committee on Defence. A beaming Jaipal Reddy, the Congress spokesperson, later pointed out: "Sonia has appropriated the BJP's main electoral plank."

NEW DEAL: The party says it is willing to ally even with Mulayam's Samajwadi Party

The butter issue carries more resonance. Sonia's pro-poor concerns had clear echoes of the Garibi Hatao slogan: "Politics is, at its very core, a process through which we identify ourselves fully with the people of the country, especially the poor, the disadvantaged and the deprived.'' "Congress ka haath garib ke saath has to become our beacon both in substance and style,'' she added. "Indiraji is certainly the role model for Soniaji. And why not, after all, Indiraji is even today the mother for the poor,'' is how Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Ajit Jogi justified the selling of Sonia as Indira. Congress Working Committee member Arjun Singh also agreed that the comparison was rather appropriate: "Soniaji's recent aggressive attack on the BJP reminds me of the combative Indiraji.'' The only-Sonia-can-save-us chorus was clearly given a major boost in Shimla. Says Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit: "Sonia became the Congress president when the party was out of power. Yet, she has given a unique cohesiveness and direction to the party. From six states five years ago, the party is in power in 15 states today." She adds, "Yes, Indiraji is surely the biggest inspiration for Sonia.'' So far, so good.

Now, the bad news...

The trouble is that none of Sonia's spin doctors are willing to face the harsh truth. Notwithstanding the success in the states, the party has touched the abyss under Sonia, with the lowest ever 112 seats in the Lok Sabha and 28 per cent of the votes in the 1999 general elections. This is a nosedive even from her previous record of 141 seats in the 1998 elections. None of the five draft discussion papers (meant only for internal consumption) treated that aspect with any seriousness. The paper on election preparedness and organisational reforms takes comfort from the fact that "in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress lost 132 seats by under 50,000 votes, 77 of which were lost by under 6 per cent of the votes polled ... this has to be offset against the seats won by the Congress by reversible margins". What the document ignores is that in psephological terms a margin of 50,000 votes or even a little over 5 per cent votes polled is not considered as just a marginal swing.

It is in these "swing" constituencies that the Congress is planning to carry on a micro-level exercise to identify specific hurdles on the road to electoral success. A large number of such constituencies fall in the tribal belt running south from Nepal to the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh, most of which is highly underdeveloped. This explains the party's leftward tilt under Sonia, the emphasis on poverty alleviation programmes and on environmentally sustainable solutions to development to attract the tribal vote bank along with the Dalits and other marginal sections. The Congress is aware that a significant section of the tribals has been won over by the BJP and is, therefore, contemplating steps to win them back.

There is also a realisation that only one-third of the middle-to-upper classes which benefited from economic reforms support the party. Therefore, economic reforms and other measures to draw the middle class-other than the security issue-are conspicuous by their absence in Sonia's speech. It was only brought in as an afterthought in the Sankalp and that too feebly: "The inc is the only party that integrates pro-poor policies, programmes and perspectives with the concerns and aspirations of the middle classes and entrepreneurial communities.''

In the post-1991 era of reforms, the Congress can ill afford to neglect the numerically bulging and influential middle class. There is already dissent within the party on this only pro-poor approach, silent on middle class issues. "Most of my support base lies in the middle class in Delhi, the case may not be so in Madhya Pradesh,'' laments Dikshit. Meanwhile Reddy is defensive: "Economic reforms and distributive justice are not contradictory.'' Yet, he adds almost as wishful thinking, "The middle class will return to the Congress because of the anti-incumbency factor working against the NDA.'' Reddy, however, feels Sonia's appeal is different. "Sonia has an instinctive feel for the middle ground and, therefore, an appeal that cuts across classes," he says. Another senior Congress leader agrees: "If Sonia were not Italian, she would have been the delight of the middle class with her ideal housewife image."

THE SLEEPING PARTNERS
EYES WIDE SHUT: S.C. Jamir (right), former chief minister, Nagaland	OH FOR FORTY WINKS: Pranab Mukherjee, senior Congress leader
EYES WIDE SHUT: S.C. Jamir (right), former chief minister, Nagaland	OH FOR FORTY WINKS: Pranab Mukherjee, senior Congress leader

If the conclave had a downside it was the accusation made by the local BJP functionaries who charged the Congress Government of Himachal Pradesh with blatant misuse of official machinery. The best evidence for their claim is an official letter (No. GAD-A(F) 10-5/2003) by the chief secretary on June 26, under the subject, "Visit of VVIPs/VIPs". Addressed to the heads of departments, the letter states: "I am directed to say that State Chief Ministers & other VVIP/VIPs are visiting Himachal Pradesh. A large number of vehicles are required for security purposes, etc. Therefore, it has been decided to pool vehicles from all the departments."

While the BJP claims that the misuse of government machinery amounts to Rs 5 crore the Congress spokesman has reportedly said that the entire cost of the Shivir was only about Rs 1 crore. That was not the only dampener. Despite what the Sonia spin doctors may think, her packaging as Indira has serious limitations.

An Italian-born, white-skinned memsahib who can speak just a smattering of Hindi with an accent can never mesmerise the poor as Indira Gandhi did. The credit for the fact that Congress has increased its states tally from six to 15 cannot go only to Sonia since assembly elections are won on local issues. On the other hand, she could be held partly responsible for the national slide in the Congress base from 1998 to 1999. "She might be acceptable as bahu (daughter-in-law) but not as the saas (mother-in-law), that is Indira herself,'' accepts a CWC member. Saas or bahu, the new packaging of Sonia has left the Congressmen literally on a high in the hills of Shimla. Down at ground zero, it could be a different story altogether.