Sightseeing, shopping and an advance payment of Rs 1,000. Shiv Narayan Pandey thought it was a good deal. All he had to do was ferry two men, a woman and a child around the city.

On August 24 the family of four that was looking for a CNG cab approached Pandey to go to south Mumbai from Shopper's Stop at Andheri. To 55-year-old Pandey this was good Sunday fare. Little did he know that this was a dry run. Even the next day, Pandey suspected little. Having dropped the family at the Gateway of India he left for lunch at 1 p.m.

TERROR STRIKES: People run for cover after the second bomb explodes at the Gateway of India

Within minutes a bomb planted in the boot of his cab MH-02R2007 exploded, ripping apart several cars and passers-by. The horror-struck Pandey admits he was "terribly lucky to survive". A few feet away, the Bharwads-a family of 27 en route to the Kumbh Mela at Nashik-were getting a group photograph taken. It was almost like being blinded by the camera's shutter. When the smoke cleared the Bharwads had lost eight family members. One of the survivors, Singhabhai Jetabhai Bharwad, could only remember a loud bang as he lay drenched in blood, surrounded by bodies.

Some minutes earlier on Dhanjee Street a few kilometres away in the packed market outside Zaveri Bazaar, another cab had exploded shattering the neighbourhood of the Mumbadevi temple with shards and debris. Jorji Saha, an eyewitness, said even as he blinked there were two loud bangs. The world around him came down crumbling and in seconds there were mangled bodies around him. In a span of 15 minutes the attack had claimed 52 lives, left 149 maimed and Mumbai scurrying for cover as fear of the 1993 serial blasts, which had killed 257 and injured 750, returned.

BLACK MONDAY: Blood and gore mar the familiar landmark as bodies lay strewn around the Gateway of India after the second blast; the sorry sight at the Zaveri Bazaar where shops were ripped apart

The peddlers of terror had hit home. Mobile phone networks were jammed, meetings were cancelled and parties aborted. The well-planned and co-ordinated conspiracy to inflict maximum damage with minimum effort yielded results. The country was shocked, its commercial capital in utter panic and the nation's pride dented effortlessly.

Worse, this was the seventh success for the terrorists who had till August 25 claimed 117 lives in seven blasts across Mumbai since December 2002. The modus operandi in the previous blasts (see box) was to plant low intensity explosives like gelatin sticks and ammonium nitrate along with crude timing devices in any public transport system aimed more at creating panic than causing casualties.

But this was different. It was clearly a ramping up of operations. Senior police officers working on the case are astounded by the impact of the explosive, even accounting for the force multiplier effect of CNG cylinders. Portions of the cylinder were recovered almost half a kilometre away from the scene of the Gateway blast. On Dhanjee Street the impact flung taxis into air and parts flew as far as 300 metres.

It is an impact reminiscent of 1993 and RDX. The blast wave from the detonation of a high explosive like RDX travels at speeds in excess of 3,000 metres per second (nearly twice the speed of a rifle bullet) and can generate pressures up to 700 tonnes per square inch. In real terms that would be the equivalent of being hit by a speeding express train. The police now suspect that the explosive used could have been RDX or even plastic.

Given the change in tack and method, the police feel it is not the handiwork of just a group of students or disaffected individuals. While the Mumbai Police believe the same people were responsible for the blasts, the assessment is that there was a coalition of jihadi groups at work. Mumbai Police suspect and are probing the possible involvement of these groups with overseas connections, including the Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Harkat-ul Jihar and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. Says R.S. Sharma, Mumbai Police commissioner: "The nature and pattern of the blasts indicate careful planning that points in turn to powerful forces working to destabilise Mumbai."

The Conspiracy Deception and meticulous planning marked the two blasts that caused havoc in fifteen minutes
Dry Run : August 24
9.30 am A family of four hires Shiv Narayan Pandey's taxi (MH-02R2007) near the Shopper's Stop mall in Andheri. They negotiate a Rs 600 charge for half day.	11.00 am The family-a man in his 30s, a middle- aged man, a woman and a little girl-goes to Zaveri Bazaar and shop for about an hour.	3.00 pm They return to Andheri. The young man hires the taxi for sightseeing on Monday and gives Pandey an advance of Rs 1,000.
D-Day : August 25
1 9.30 am: Pandey reaches Andheri railway station at appointed time. The family is waiting there. They ask him to drive to the zoo-Jijamata Udhyan-at Byculla.	2 10.15 am: On the way, they pick up a man, purportedly their relative, at Khar. The man is carrying a heavy cloth bag which is kept in the boot of the taxi.	3 11.30 am: They reach the zoo at Byculla. They spend over half-an-hour there. The middle-aged man, woman and girl return. The young man and the 'relative' are believed to have taken another taxi.
4 12.20 pm: The middle-aged man also gets off near Dhobi Talao close to Metro cinema. He asks Pandey to take the woman and the girl to see the Gateway of India.	5 12.45 pm: At the Gateway of India, the woman gets a call on her cell and says, "Namaz pahle aatein hai." They get off and tell Pandey they would return after lunch. Pandey parks taxi and goes off for lunch.	6 12.50 pm: A bomb explodes at Zaveri Bazaar. The police suspect that the two men who had hired the other taxi at the zoo may have planted an explosive in the boot of the vehicle.
7 1.05 pm: Meanwhile at the Gateway of India, after Pandey goes for lunch, the bomb placed in the boot of his taxi explodes. The woman is suspected to have remotely triggered it.
	Prime Suspects
JALEES ANSARI: A former doctor in Mumbai's V.N. Desai hospital, Ansari is an expert in preparing improvised explosive devices. On the eve of the first anniversary of the Babri Masjid demolition on December 5, 1993, his group set off explosions in five long distance trains. Arrested, he is currently facing trial in Ajmer, Rajasthan.	C.A.M BASHEER: An aeronautical engineer from Alwaye, Kerala, Basheer was president of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). He underwent terrorist training in Pakistan in the 1980s. Currently holed up in one of the Gulf countries, he is said to be the mastermind of the Ghatkopar blasts.	SAQUIB NACHAN: A former SIMI affiliate, he masterminded the Mulund blasts of March 2003. He made several trips to Pakistan to plan the serial blasts. Also motivated several Muslim youth in his hometown Padgha in Maharashtra's Thane district to travel to Pakistan for terrorist training.
SIMI: Established in 1977, it was banned in March 2001 after the Kanpur riots. Continues to work underground and is responsible for several blasts in north India in the past two years. Its cadre strength is said to be about 30,000.
LASHKAR-E-TOIBA: Formed in 1990, it is one of the largest terrorists organisations operating in India and was responsible for the attack on Parliament in December 2001.

WHY MUMBAI?

RECURRING NIGHTMARE: Innocent people have been victims of the blasts that have terrorised the city in the past few months. Since December 2002, 117 lives have been lost.

Where else, the Mumbaikar would ask. It is India's New York, Paris and London rolled into one. Add Chicago, the cynical would whisper hoarsely. Truth is Mumbai is still the poster city. It is the city of billionaires, of stars, of Tendulkar. It is the city of Bollywood, of cricket and the country's financial capital. Mumbai simply symbolises the economic might of India, which has been on the upswing. For the terrorists Mumbai gives more bang for the blast. Says CBI Joint Director D. Shivanandhan: "Any attack on Mumbai can have a devastating impact on business sentiments not just in the city but across the nation."

Mumbai is also a soft target. Nestled in a natural harbour it may have been a great port but it is also a sitting duck. Teeming with over 15 million people packed on a strip of land that is less than a mile wide at places bound by filth. Home to thousands of migrants from across the country and elsewhere, hope of dreamers who live the nightmare for a dream that may be. Among these dreamers live the recruits of fundamentalist outfits as also sharpshooters drafted for the underworld. Increasingly, the underworld has been collaborating with the jihadis. Mumbai lives a dream that could turn into a nightmare anytime.

This melting pot may be a romantic notion but it is a nightmare for any police force. At all moments Mumbai is a tense working model of a modern city. The nearly 20-lakh plus Muslims live cheek by jowl with 227 shakhas and over five lakh Shiv Sainiks. So do other hostile groups in densely populated settlements like Dharavi, Kurla, Mankhurd and Sion. But at the slightest provocation, groups can set upon each other. It is a virtual tinderbox that can flare up anytime as it did after the demolition of the Babri Masjid for a full month. Every time the city is targeted one expectation is that the city will riot. It has not. Until December 2001, Islamist terrorism was something that people in Jammu and Kashmir had to suffer. After the audacious attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, it was clear that fundamentalists had spread their tentacles wide.

TERROR'S NEW FACE

WHAT WENT WRONG? Deputy Prime Minister Advani (above) takes stock of the situation at the site of the blast and Congress President Sonia Gandhi visits the injured in the hospital

Investigations into the seven bomb blasts that have rocked Mumbai since December last clearly reveal one thing; the fundamentalist Islamic groups involved in these acts-the LeT, Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Muslim Defence Force or the Gujarat Revenge Group-have drawn their cadres from Muslim youths in the Tableegh Jamaat, the radical missionary affiliate of the Deoband Islamic movement, and the Ahle Hadis (AH).

Both the Tableegh Jamaat and the AH are spread all over India, Pakistan and Bangladesh and have close links with the radical Wahhabis of Saudi Arabia, rabid supporters of Osama bin Laden. The power of the two movements can be gauged from the fact that their puritanical preachings have attracted a large number of educated Muslims. A majority of Tableegh Jamaat youths arrested for the murder of former Gujarat home minister Haren Pandya speak fluent English. The 1993 blasts planned by the ISI and implemented by the underworld used unemployed youth. But in the 2002-3 blasts, a university degree and technical qualifications almost seemed to be de rigueur for membership to a terrorist cell. Of the 21 people arrested by the police for various bombings during the past eight months, three were doctors, six were computer professionals and three of them university graduates.

But agencies that deal with internal intelligence say the Gujarat Revenge Group that has claimed responsibility for the Mumbai blasts does not conform to any single terror group in the country. "These are radicals who have decided to spread mayhem and terror on their own, without the necessary backing of any particular terror group," says a special director in the Intelligence Bureau. But there is every chance that the people behind the blasts have drawn on the expertise and linkages of various groups, including SIMI, LeT, and possibly some key militant elements sympathising with the ah.

A Decade After Even as the 1993 blasts trial inches towards a close, the guilty can still escape jail for another decade

BLASTS IN THE PAST: Key conspirators are still absconding

On March 12, 1993, Mumbai was rocked by 13 deafening explosions, shattering high rises and leaving behind a heavy human toll. The same evening, 40 cases were registered at various police stations in Mumbai, Thane and Raigad districts in connection with the blasts. Of these cases, 27 were registered by the police as crimes and 13 as local act crimes, later found to be a part of the same conspiracy. These cases were then clubbed together and transferred to the special TADA court hearing the blasts case. Shortly after the trial began, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) took over the probe. Though the Mumbai Police had filed an initial chargesheet against the 189 accused, the CBI added four more to the list. Of the 193 accused, 122 are currently facing trial while 29 are absconding, 28 have been discharged and 12 have died of natural causes or in gangland wars. Thirty-eight key conspirators, including alleged mastermind Tiger Memon, underworld don Dawood Ibrahim, his brother Anees and Abu Salem, were declared absconding and a red-corner notice issued against them. Salem is in a Lisbon jail and the Government is lobbying with the Portuguese authorities for his extradition. As for the others, when safe haven UAE began to get a bit too hot, they shifted to Pakistan and are said to be the ISI's official guests. The trial procedure was completed in March 2003 when accused absconders Ejaz Pathan and Mustafa Majnoon Dosa were deported from Dubai. The 1993 blasts trial has set many records. In seven years Pramod Kode, who took over as the designated TADA court judge in February 1996 following the promotion of J.N. Patel, has recorded statements of 635 witnesses; these run into over 12,600 pages. On trial days, jeeps and cars ferry to court the chargesheet that totals 10,000 pages. The evidence collected comprises 13,000 pages and statements of the accused, recorded by Kode, run into over 9,000 pages. Besides, there are over 7,000 pages that the CBI has filed as exhibits. Each time Kode presides over the trial, he has to refer to over 35,000 pages of case papers. The final verdict may take some more months. But even if convicted, the accused can appeal to the higher courts. In which case don't expect a verdict for another decade.

Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, who visited the twin sites of the blasts, said there were indications that the LeT and SIMI were involved in the attack. Blaming Pakistan, he said its target was not to merely "destabilise Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and Delhi, but also the entire country".

The blasts showcase two important facts-the maturing of SIMI into a full-fledged terrorist organisation and the evolution of the LeT from a purely Pakistani organisation into a global outfit. SIMI's ideology has nothing to do with India's Muslims feeling insecure or more "proximate" reasons like Gujarat. It is clearly concerned with the "liberation of India" into an Islamic state. As for the LeT, its ambitions of creating an Islamic region in South Asia have now grown-"Tel Aviv and Washington" are in its sights. During recent intelligence sharing between Indian and Israeli agencies, it was reportedly revealed that SIMI activists are in touch with Hamas terrorists operating in Israel, following the questioning of Palestinian terrorists who had spent time in south India.

MUMBAISPEAK
Jackie Shroff, Actor	Shyam Benegal, Filmmaker	Ravi Shastri, Cricket commentator
"My daughter keeps asking me if she will be bombed. It's heartbreaking."	"It's sad to see politicians trading charges when they should be united now."	"The people's resilience is commendable. Within a day the city was normal."
Alyque Padamsee, Advertising guru and playwright	Shobhaa De, Author, columnist and socialite	Mahesh Bhatt, Filmmaker
"If one wants to debilitate India, then Mumbai is the most obvious target."	" Mumbai values lives but bouncing back is the only way of coping with the terror."	"People need answers, but the Mumbai Police are not the one with the answers."

LeT, which is almost exclusively a creation of the ISI, has clocked exponential growth in the post-9/11 phase having escaped US attention as a purely anti-India outfit rather than a millenarian group. Security experts estimate that LeT has grown beyond the geopolitical interests of the Pakistani state to become one more army for the creation of an Islamic world. But though the group has now been banned, Pakistan has allowed its leader, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, to run free all over Pakistan and the organisation to operate under its rebadged identity, Jamaat-ed-Dawa. Says Ajai Sahni of the Institute of Conflict Management: "Over time, as these groups continue to undermine law and order in a state, the forces of Islam will be ready to step into the vacuum created." This is the modus operandi in Iraq, it was how Afghanistan under the Taliban became a safe haven for Islamist forces, and that is what they are trying to do in India.

A FAILED FORCE

No thanks to the police. Mumbai is perhaps putting up with one of the worst police performances in many years. Once hailed as the answer to Scotland Yard it has not managed to crack the serial blasts despite the political and administrative imperatives that govern the issue.

Business as Usual

The long-term impact is undeniable. But the blasts haven't dulled the market's bullish run.

TUESDAY TURNAROUND: A day after the blasts, Dalal Street gained 147 points and all was fine Take that. And more. If sentiment drives stock markets-and it usually does-the emotion was clear. A day after the carnage on Dalal Street shaved 120 points off the Sensex, it was time to hit back. On August 26, the stock market, quite like Mumbai, was back on its feet-147 points up at 4,152 points-as if to say: Don't mess with us, this is a bull run. While the latest terror attacks, like similar blasts the world over, are eventually going to have a negative impact on the nation's economy, experts say Monday's blasts have been more than absorbed by the markets and are unlikely to pose any great hurdles to the current bullish fervour. "We survived Iraq and Kargil, so what's this? The resilience is high," says Vallabh Bhansali, director, Enam Financial. "But if it snowballs then it could shake confidence." Brokers and fund managers say the fundamentals-strong corporate performance, huge forex reserves, strong rupee and timely monsoons-are under no threat because of the attacks. "It has not and will not change the economic fundamentals. The stock markets have shown that they are not going to be cowed down," says Shitin Desai, vice-chairman, DSP Merrill Lynch. If Tuesday was any indicator, Black Monday will not deter small investors who were just beginning to come back to the stock markets after almost three years. "Equity investors the world over are realising that such events are part of risks one has to take," says Nilesh Shah, senior vice-president and head, portfolio management, Kotak Securities. Not everyone agrees though. "It is bound to have some negative impact," says Rahul Bajaj, chairman, Bajaj Auto. "Tourist inflow could be affected and while FIIs are likely to remain bullish, discussions, if not decisions on the fdi front could be affected." Adds Mahesh Vyas, MD and CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy: "This event, like SIMIlar events in the past, will prevent the country from fully exploiting its growth potential." Moreover, the wild fluctuations seen in the past few days would have left some investors without their shirts. And this could push them on the sidelines for a while, fear some brokers. "But let us not forget the crash came at a time when the market was in any case expecting a correction owing to a steep increase over the past few days," says Anup Bagchi, chief operating officer, ICICI Direct. "That explains the immediate rebound." For now it is business as usual. FIIs who have pumped in over $2.9 billion (Rs 13,400 crore) so far this year-and are prone to pulling out of troubled areas-appear in no mood to relent. "We are still buyers in the market. Life is pretty normal in Mumbai and fortunately there have been no strike calls," says U.R. Bhat, head of equities, JP Morgan India. "We are still seeing visitors coming over." Clearly, this is not a party that is going to end in a hurry.

— Vivek Law

The first concrete attempt to paralyse Mumbai was discovered in Thane in November 2000 when top LeT commander Abu Saifullah and his three associates were arrested. They revealed designs on the Gateway, Bombay High and a plot to kill Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray. Pakistani national Mohammed Irfan Abu Sultan, southern commander of LeT, along with two associates were killed in an encounter as recently as March 2003.

In fact, a senior Home Ministry source points out that for almost nine months Deputy Chief Minister Chhagan Bhujbal has been trying to raise a special anti-terrorist squad. But he has been blocked not only by city police officers (who stand to lose power) but also by the IAS lobby which feels the proposal bestows too much power on one individual. Despite several meetings, neither Bhujbal nor his officers have been able to push the proposal further. Mumbai, meanwhile, continues to suffer.

TAKING TO THE STREETS: The BJP takes out a protest march following the blast

These signs and alerts from the state intelligence notwithstanding there has been no attempt to either form a strategy or to even beef up normal policing of sensitive locations. A senior police officer quips: "Imagine if Pandey had not been around. We would have been completely exposed for our non-intelligence." Former police officers and senior ones allege that corruption has reached such a level that there is a scandal involving money payable or paid to informers. Worse, information is hard to come by since informers now believe that it is leaked. Interestingly, even Central police officers aver that they have stopped sharing intelligence because it is compromised.

Arvind Inamdar, a retired DGP, is shocked that things have come to such a pass. "The system has been infested by arrogant, selfish and unprofessional elements," he says. "If they are obsessed with suicidal instincts, who can help them? Mumbai can be protected only if the Mumbai Police get down to real policing and professionalism."

REMAINS OF THE DAY: Policemen survey the area of attack and assess the damage

Moreover, several senior police officers in charge of sensitive and vital responsibilities are at war with one another. Two senior officers said to be involved in the massive multi-crore Telgi stamp scam are worried about their stripes while another cannot see eye to eye with the commissioner. Result: complete mayhem and no policing. Small wonder then that Maharashtra BJP President Gopinath Munde has now asked for the terror attack to be investigated by the CBI. Munde, who is also former state home minister, says the repeated incidents of bomb blasts are the "failure of the state Government's intelligence network".

Meanwhile, Central intelligence agencies are worried. Their inputs suggest that not only were JeM and LeT involved in the past blasts but they have also set up several sleeper cells around the state and in the city. Members of the cells are ordinary boys from small upcountry families-like the sharp shooters recruited by Salem and company. Almost akin to the over 180 ISI cells busted since 2001, these sleeper cells are trained in neighbouring countries and sent back for later application.

Clearly, there is an urgent need to stem the rot that has set in. Unless there is immediate action against the growing network of terror, not just Mumbai, no Indian city will be safe for its denizens hereafter.