Crown Of Thorns

For Mulayam Singh Yadav it is the best of times, it is the worst of times. Sworn in as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh after eight years, his coronation last week was celebrated with glitz and glamour, pomp and pageantry. Lucknow's Lakshman Mela Grounds on the banks of the Gomti, glimmered with the lustre of Bollywood's glitterati. For once, Uttar Pradesh politics was reported with panache more on Page 3 than on the customary front page. And in this turn of pages also unfolds a new script: a realignment in Uttar Pradesh and the transition of Mulayam from a Mandalite socialist leader to a socialite. So much for the best of times.

THE RETURN OF THE NATIVE: Mulayam at Lucknow's Lakshman Mela Grounds

Now comes the hard part. Mulayam's coronation could well find him holding a poisoned chalice. His list of predicaments is growing by the day, the least of which is to rustle up the majority required for the September 8 vote of confidence. Each rival plans to checkmate the Samajwadi Party chief and each partner of the SP-led alliance has its hidden agenda. While the pitfalls of Lucknow politics are formidable, demands from Delhi are compelling. After all, the political highway that begins at Lucknow leads to Delhi. Wrestling with such exigencies, the SP chief will be left with little time for governance. The economic crisis gripping Uttar Pradesh is so severe that tackling it will be like rolling a boulder uphill. If the state does slide from bad to worse, Mulayam will be held responsible for the Biharisation of Uttar Pradesh.

The euphoria and ecstacy of Mulayam's return to power has been given a reality check courtesy his man Friday Amar Singh, who described Mulayam's coronation as in Mainpuri last week a "crown of thorns". It is indeed a thorny situation. In a three-player contest, where none has a majority in the House, permanent instability is almost inevitable. Mulayam faces the daunting task of breaking the constitutional logjam without breaking the law.

Mulayam has three options before the trust vote: first, he slices one-third of the 109-strong Bahujan Samaj Party by persuading at least 37 MLAs to join him; second, he cobbles a rag-tag alliance of Independents and others; or third, he begs the 87 member-strong BJP to abstain. Notwithstanding Mayawati's recent isolation and claims of 22 BSP rebels ready to break ranks, the first option appears difficult. An alliance of Independents and smaller parties might appear as elusive as the axiom: Kahin ki eent, kahin ka rora, Bhanumati ne kumba jora (by picking bricks from here, pebbles from there, the witch Bhanumati tried to weave the illusion of a family). "It is like trying to gather saanp, chuchundar aur bichchu (snakes, rats and scorpions),'' cautions state BJP chief Vinay Katiyar.

Seeking support from the BJP will dent Mulayam's carefully cultivated image of a militant secularist who supports the rebuilding of the Babri Masjid at the disputed site in Ayodhya. Allying with Kalyan Singh, "the architect of the Babri Masjid demolition", is bad enough for "Maulana" Mulayam. But sleeping with the saffron enemy will be much worse. It is bound to make Mulayam appear a typical opportunist who for the sake of power surrenders before "communal forces". The Babri bark might suddenly appear like a whimper. Even enlisting the passive support of the BJP might lead to erosion in the ranks of his minority supporters, who might turn to the Congress. But Mulayam has little choice today. Known for his anti-BJP politics, the compulsions of power has led him to announce, "The BJP is not my enemy No. 1.'' (see interview)

Even though the numbers don't seem to add up, the trust vote is the least of Mulayam's problems. Once he becomes the de jure chief minister, there are monumental problems that would make his privileged position look unenviable. Aware that raising the Ayodhya issue is like dangling a red rag before the bull to Mulayam, Katiyar, along with the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, threatens to step up its Ram Raksha and Jan Jagran campaigns, the second phase of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. For the BJP, Mulayam as chief minister is a preferred option as it would lead to a polarisation on the temple issue in favour of the BJP. "If Mulayam wears the Muslim cap, Hindus will be forced to wear the saafa (warrior headgear),'' warns Katiyar.

The Congress poses a different kind of challenge. Although committed to supporting Mulayam in Lucknow, the party is facing polls in Madhya Pradesh and four other states in November and might decide to cosy up to Mayawati's BSP. The Dalit party commands the pivotal 6 per cent vote in Madhya Pradesh and has pockets of influence in other states, including Delhi. Also, the Congress competes with the SP for the 17 per cent minority votes. Some Congress leaders, including former UPCC chief Salman Khursheed, firmly believe that the Congress will never be able to revive its fortunes in the state if it allies with the SP.

Facing poaching in its ranks, the BSP and Mayawati are waiting for a chance to strike back. The 140 criminal cases the previous regime had filed against the SP chief has only raised the pitch of the Mulayam-Mayawati feud. Although Mulayam claims there will be no witchhunt, his promise that the law will take its course may be read as a veiled threat for Mayawati. By luring the Congress out of his clutches, Mayawati can pull the rug from underneath Mulayam's feet.

With the backing of the Lodh Rajput supporters of Kalyan Singh, Jat voters of Ajit Singh, Thakurs, Yadavs and Muslims, Mulayam is trying to recreate a new alliance along the lines of the 1967 AJGAR (Ahir-Jat-Gujjar and Rajput) rainbow coalition of Charan Singh. Mulayam had won with a record margin as a first time MLA that year. But will such a caste arithmetic work 36 years later in a post-Mandal, post-Mandir world? Unlikely.

Indeed, Mulayam also faces threat from within his "secular alliance''. An NDA partner till recently, Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Ajit Singh is yet to reconcile to Mulayam claiming his father Charan Singh's mantle. In 1989, they had fought bitterly over the chief ministership of Uttar Pradesh. Once the chips are down, Ajit Singh is likely to raise his favourite demand of a separate Harit Pradesh in eastern Uttar Pradesh, where Jats replace Yadavs as the dominant castes. An isolated Kalyan may be ready to play second fiddle to Mulayam, but there already are murmurs of discontent over the the strategic post of the assembly's Speaker.

Another ally is POTA-martyr Raja Bhaiyya who heads the powerful Thakur lobby. Mulayam announced release of pota detaines and in return Raja Bhaiyya reportedly poached nine Thakur MLAs from Mayawati's flock and promised several MLAs with criminal records into the SP fold. This is bound to taint the Mulayam regime.

Political predicaments are likely to sideline the real issues of governance. To begin with, the budget. As Mayawati did not muster up the courage to have a budget passed by the Assembly, the finances of the state is being run on vote-on-accounts. The exchequer's depleted state poses an even greater challenge with no money to pay salaries to its employees.

STAR CAST: Sahara's Subrata Roy and the Bachchans at the swearing in

If the mud-wrestling on the banks of the Gomti appears murky, the one on the banks of the Yamuna is murkier. The one-time wrestler from Etawah will have to tackle heavyweights in Delhi. With preparations for the Lok Sabha elections 2004 already under way, Mulayam will have to walk the tight rope. Responsible for derailing Sonia's prime ministerial bid in 1999, Mulayam cannot afford to backstab the Congress once again. Today, Sonia needs him as much as Mayawati to aim for prime ministership in 2004. Yet, Mulayam also needs to temper his 1992 venom against the BJP. Though Mulayam seems to have the blessings of former socialist fellow traveller George Fernandes and BJP Thakur leader Rajnath Singh, he needs to cultivate more leaders of the Sangh Parivar. His trajectory from an erstwhile socialist to a socialite might come handy in this politics of desperately seeking allies.

BUREAUCRACY

Yes, Chief Minister

(from left) Shailesh Krishna is in, P.L. Punia is out and D.S. Bagga Stays put In the aaya CM, gaya CM politics of Uttar Pradesh, one of the most affected parties is the bureaucracy. But the babus are not innocent victims. The bureaucracy in the state is almost completely compartmentalised along political and caste lines. Lately, given the transient nature of the parties, many bureaucrats are committed to individuals and not political parties. With Mayawati's exit, followed by Mulayam Singh Yadav's entry, the Lucknow Secretariat is awaiting a major upheaval. And the most worried are those who had received a flood of congratulations last year-Rohit Nandan, Sri Kishan, Netram and Fateh Bahadur-even before they took over as Mayawati's secretaries. Those on the winning side now are Shailesh Krishna and Atul Bagai. Krishna has already been appointed secretary to the chief minister. But Mayawati's appointee D.S. Bagga continues as chief secretary. Some officers, however, manage to weather all sorts of regime. P.L. Punia is a prime example. In 1993-95, he was principal secretary to Mulayam, then served Mayawati in the same office. In 1997, Mayawati brought him back. The "most wanted" IAS officer was even picked by Jagdambika Pal when he became chief minister for a day in 1998. But he reached the pinnacle of power during Mayawati's third term. If MLAs are to be believed, he was the de facto chief minister. "It was Punia we reported to and he managed the political show," says Rae Bareli MLA Akhilesh Singh. Now Punia, the man who had allegedly masterminded 140 cases against the SP leaders, has been shunted out as director of a management institute. Others face similar fate. When Samajwadi Party goons had attacked Mayawati in the state guest house in Lucknow in 1995, SP Rajiv Ranjan Verma had ordered a lathi-charge. He had been made SSP, Lucknow, by Mayawati. But with Mulayam's return, Verma is back on the hit list. There are others who are on the reward list. Additional Director-General, Training, Yashpal Singh is on his way up as his wife Geeta Singh is an SP MLA. As are many other obc officials, particularly Yadavs. Most districts during Mayawati's regime were headed by sc officers, so a revamp is on cards. It will be an obc reign in Lucknow.

Subhash Mishra