The metaphor is irresistible. For years, paeans to India's potential were predictably followed by ifs and buts. The country's infrastructure was among the worst, its interest rates the highest and the red tape mind-boggling. "If only" and comparisons with China were ubiquitous in any research report or at seminars. Sure it would rule in services but manufacturing was declared dead. True to form, almost like its cricket team, the Indian economy consistently delivered less than it could. There was the occasional starburst-a TCS, a Wipro or Infosys-but that was like Sachin Tendulkar's tons when the team lost.

"I am not just interested in gross domestic product (GDP). For me, gross national contentment (GNC) is more vital. If the GNC grows, GDP will chug along." Jaswant Singh, Finance Minister

Then in 2002, the first signs of a turnaround effort were spotted sparkling on the horizon. It was not the much-vaunted technology sector but the dependable Dravid of the economy, the manufacturing segment, that was roaring. Steel took off to China, pharmaceuticals to Europe and the US, auto parts sped on global motorways and high street fashion was made in India. When the global economy spluttered in 2002-3, the top 100 Indian companies netted over Rs 70,000 crore in exports.

But perception at home bordered between the dim and the dismal. Last December when Finance Minister Jaswant Singh told the CII that "growth was bubbling under", many dubbed it political froth. As it turns out, the Agarkars and Khans of the economy delivered as the tech-sector struggled. This year, GDP growth is expected to push past 7 per cent, forex reserves have already crossed $100 billion, the bse Sensex is edging towards the 6,000-mark and the primary market expects IPOs every fortnight. Success did not come easy though. As India Inc went through five years of painful creative destruction, the Government switched places with Dhanraj Pillay and took on the mantle of the game-maker. It re-engineered the financial sector and slashed interest rates and pushed down the cost of money by over 500 points, enabling industries to restructure and consumers to buy. The Government also pushed spend on counter cyclical measures-on roads, ports, construction that propped capacity utilisation and enhanced demand besides creating employment.

The dividends would have flowed earlier if it was not for the drought. In fact, when Jaswant came in, it seemed it was too late. But he was confident. I know what needs to be done, he declared with gravelly gravitas. He wound down UTI, bailed out the IDBI and restructured textile and steel. He cut taxes and tariffs to enable affordability. Catering to the middle class made not just political sense but economic too as it is household consumption that is driving growth. Low interest rates encouraged the purchase of houses, cars and durables and the Government spend pushed low-wage job creation as also the revival of the core sector.

Now they are talking about India's arrival on the global mart. Backed by its mind power-five lakh engineers, 2.5 lakh doctors and 75 lakh graduates-India is seen as having a clear shot at being the coding capital of the world, the back office to global corporations, the centre of cutting-edge research, the global original equipment manufacturer of auto ancillaries and the preferred supplier of infrastructure-erection-construction skills. Goldman Sachs' BRIC report sees India as the third largest economy in the world by 2050 behind China and the US. A DSP Merrill Lynch report predicts doubling of India's GDP to over a trillion dollars by the end of the decade. This year as economists debate whether India's GDP will clock in 7.5 per cent or 8 per cent, CLSA, an FII with over Rs 3,254 crore invested in Indian stocks, set Dalal Street galloping with a prediction of 9-plus per cent growth in 2004-5. If you are wondering why it all happened only in 2003, flash back to that picture of Sourav Ganguly 3 ft in the air at the Gabba after scoring his century. Admittedly the monsoon did have a role but the tipping point was the return of team spirit and the comeback of confidence.

"Today India has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to lead the world in thought, word, deed." Mukesh Ambani, Reliance Mukesh Ambani, Reliance

Mobile Buzz

Going to that neighbourhood paanwala and waiting in a queue to make that call, squeezing yourself in a phone booth at the railway station to call "ma" for the car or trudging up Sanchar Bhavan to grovel for the restoration of a connection. When did you do that last? Not last year, not this year. Thanks to cut-throat competition and the entry of the juggernaut called Reliance Infocom, nearly 70 million Indians own telephones (up from 32 million just two years ago). Sure it is nowhere near the 260 million in China or even the 180 million that China Telecom boasts of. But it is a good start. There are no queues and you do not have to produce your blood group or caste certificate to dial home or anywhere. Following the opening up of the telecom sector you can be connected at less than Rs 500 per month. The mobile users' club has over 26 million members with just Reliance Infocom netting over five million subscribers. In November, over 1.9 million subscribers switched on their Nokia or Ericsson and this December 31 you may just find SMS messages flashing on nearly 30 million phones. As a result of the rather messy telecom war between two sets of alphabet soups-the GSM operators and the CDMA operators-the consumer has emerged the king. The 10-digit number is no longer the preserve of the metrosexual. That very paanwala or the pandit who conducts the Satya-narayan katha must be mobile. SMS pooja, though, is some distance away.

Right On EMI Street

Spurred by declining interest rates, living it up has become more affordable. A housing loan now costs Rs 775-plus per lakh compared to over Rs 1,400 per lakh last year. Seven of the 10 cars or TV sets purchased in towns are bought on credit. Money lent to individuals rose from Rs 42,000 crore in 1999 to Rs 1,25,200 in 2003. It is expected to touch Rs 1,66,000 crore in 2004. And at barely 4 per cent of GDP, this is just the beginning. Good times are here to stay, in instalments.

The year that has just gone by has been a watershed. In our businesses we have seen the last of the major restructuring initiatives. We have emerged stronger, fitter and a leader in many ways. I believe we are at an inflection point, past consolidation, into a phase of growth-not just incremental but accelerated. I believe Indian corporates have acquired over 30 overseas companies this year. It is pleasing to see the Indian footprint enlarge in the global marketplace. We have been a global player for many years and consistent with our objectives of becoming a world-class, competitive, integrated copper player with a presence along the value chain, we have acquired two copper mines, and made our foray into Australia-the Nifty Mines and Mount Gordon.

For years, people forced the China comparison into any conversation on manufacturing competitiveness. Recently, global tyre-maker Michelin went to China and enquired why we could not be their supplier. It is thus immensely gratifying that we entered the land of the dragon with the acquisition of the 12,000-tonne Liaoning Carbon Black plant to emerge as the fourth largest carbon black player in the world.

We are not moving into China alone. Our plans to set up a 14,000-tonne per annum acrylic fibre plant in Egypt too have materialised. We have also consolidated our cement business. After the successful conclusion of agreement with L&T and the demerger of its cement business with Grasim, we are poised to become India's largest player in the cement industry. Acceleration in GDP growth will spur a boom in construction. As the Indian economy grows, construction, particularly housing, will be a key sector in the cycle of growth as it impacts on many sectors of the economy. I believe we will be in place to play a key role. Already our group's market capitalisation has grown by 97.4 per cent in the past year, outpacing the 62.7 per cent rise of the BSE Sensex. This measure reflects more than just numbers: it provides a sense of our standing in terms of governance, the faith investors repose in us and recognition-at last-of our efforts at value creation.

It is a feeling, a satisfaction that is not unlike watching plants bloom, watching our children grow. I feel the best inspiration for growth comes from watching children. This year I enjoyed watching my children Ananyashree and Aryaman act in a play based on the Ramayana. Each performance was inspiring and I believe the inspiration has and will serve me well.

TOP GEAR: Ford's Fusion, Hyundai's Elantra (below)

Life In The Fast Lane

The Chevrolet came in with the Optra, Honda launched its new City, Maruti redid Zen while Hyundai added Xing to its Santro. Add the Forrester, the Grand Vitara, Honda's CRV and Hyundai's Terracan. Ditto with bikes-aimed at passion riders. But if you think car and bike lovers had a tough choice in 2003, watch out for 2004. Suzuki is expected to bring in Liana alongside the Esteem, Hyundai will upgrade Accent and bring in c-segment contenders Elantra and Getz while Ford will drive in Fusion and Endeavour. Beginning with the auto show in Delhi in mid-January, over 50 models of cars and bikes will be launched.

RAY OF HOPE: Driving has never been as smooth

Just Wear Your Seat Belt

You don't need to drive the Mercedes-E series or the Chevrolet Forrester. Driving across India

in our own Indica feels just as good, because of the National Highway Development Project. It is the most visible sign of change in India. Delhi to Jaipur, Mumbai to Pune or Bangalore to Mysore. The roads simply look and feel global. This year-rather by January 7-over 1,560 km would be laned and marked, taking kilometres added to the national highway network up to 3,477 km since 2000.