When the Sri Lankans cast their ballot in the general election in April, voting for the third time in four years may be little guarantee that political stability will be restored. A pact between President Chandrika Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and former Marxist insurgents, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), signed in January this year could see the radical group increase its presence in the legislature and intensify hardline demands. It is equally likely that Tamil Tiger rebels will make a more overt entry into mainstream politics, even if through a proxy party, and emerge as potential kingmakers in a hung Parliament.

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Kumaratunga dissolved Parliament late on February 7 and announced a snap poll after months of bitter clashes with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe who leads the United National Party (UNP). Ever since the UNP came to power in 2001, Wickremesinghe and Kumaratunga have had a contentious relationship, with the president openly critical of the prime minister's talks with the LTTE. Complaining that he had been too lenient with the Tigers, Kumaratunga accused him of sidelining her and keeping her in the dark about the truce agreement.

Analysts say the SLFP-JVP tie-up-the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA)-could be headed for trouble after the poll, with ideological differences between the two parties already causing dissension. The JVP is against negotiations with and devolving power to the LTTE and will defy the World Bank and IMF demands for privatisation, while Kumaratunga is willing to consider all these. The alliance is yet to announce a common stance on the peace process or how they will share the spoils of the election. "We can expect a lot of turmoil," says Tamil legislator Dharmalingam Sidhadthan. "Even if the UNP comes back to power, we will still have the same president and we will be back to square one."

The uncertainty jeopardises Norway's bid to end decades of ethnic fighting by the LTTE which has claimed more than 60,000 lives. Anton Balasingham, the rebels' London-based ideologue, said in a statement, "The dissolution of the Sri Lankan Parliament and the call for a snap election constitutes a grave setback to the peace process." But he stressed the LTTE's commitment to the two-year-long ceasefire arranged by Oslo. "In spite of the political turmoil and uncertainty in Colombo, our organisation will rigidly observe the ceasefire regulations and maintain peace," he said.

INDIA-PAKISTAN | TALKS Back to the Table

Nuclear stability between India and Pakistan? When Indian foreign secretary Shashank and his Pakistani counterpart Riaz H. Khokhar along with their officials meet in Islamabad on February 16-18 to set the timetable for formal talks, India is expected to propose a dialogue on nuclear stability. Top level sources in the Indian Government confirmed that India would propose a return to the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed during the Lahore Declaration. The composite dialogue agreed to by India and Pakistan in 1997 identifies eight areas to be discussed: peace and security including CBMs, Jammu and Kashmir, Tulbul/Wullar barrage, Sir Creek, Siachen, trade and economic cooperation, friendly exchanges and terrorism. There is scepticism in the Indian side about the reception on the nuclear issue that it might get from Pakistan given that past experience in this respect is hardly encouraging. The MoU set out what nuclear analysts call "baby steps" in nuclear confidence-building measures (CBMs) between the two countries. They include consultations on security concepts and nuclear doctrines, advance notification of ballistic missile tests and taking measures to reduce risks of accidental use of nuclear weapons under their control. Lahore was overtaken by subsequent events and the MoU was stillborn. In 2001, India had offered to start expert-level talks with Pakistan, but it was another no-go. It is likely Pakistan will accept this proposal with alacrity this time. In fact, senior Pakistani Government sources confirmed to India Today that Islamabad could even pre-empt India. They point to a statement by Pakistan Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali last year asking for discussions on "strategic and nuclear stability". "Pakistan supports the CBMs outlined in the MoU signed in Lahore in February 1999," he said. Pakistan's ready acceptance is a sign of the times, coming in the context of charges of nuclear proliferation against it. For India, it is an opportunity to position itself as a responsible nuclear power. These have been the stuff of some confidential but frequent conversations between National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra and President Pervez Musharraf's adviser Tariq Aziz in the past few weeks. India has refrained from commenting on Pakistan's proliferation. The silence has been deliberate because it strives to distance India from Pakistan's nuclear profligacy. In the past, Pakistan has used India's rhetoric as a vaccine against western pressure. This time, India was determined not to provide Pakistan with such a safety valve. Infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir is down but a more definitive assessment will be made after the passes open in March. This will be crucial to determining when India is ready to reopen the doors for a formal dialogue. -By Indrani Bagchi

Balasingham led the LTTE negotiators when ground-breaking peace talks with the Wickremesinghe administration opened in September 2002 in Thailand. The LTTE pulled out of the talks in April 2003, complaining that the UNP government had not implemented the decisions taken at the talks, but said they were willing to resume the dialogue in November. The UPFA has denounced Oslo's diplomats for over-stepping their brief and has vowed to review their role. "A peace process at this stage cannot stay static for long," notes Kethesh Loganathan of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, an independent think-tank. "The process will have to move forward or it could decline into instability."

In both the 2000 and 2001 polls, neither Kumaratunga's party nor the UNP was able to muster a clear majority while the minority parties gained considerable influence under the electoral system of proportional representation. The JVP-once accused by Kumaratunga of assassinating her actor husband Vijay Kumaratunga-was in third place with 16 seats and a four-party Tamil grouping won 15 places in the 225-member House.

This time Kumaratunga's main plank could be the resurgence of Sinhala Buddhist nationalism. Not only is the UPFA calling for a reappraisal of Norway's role in the peace process, but a spate of attacks on Christian places of worship, exacerbating religious tension, has been linked to the JVP. The president has pledged to abide by the terms of the 2002 truce but has said she is against granting the LTTE's demand for interim power in the north and east where it already runs quasi-administrations. As for the UNP, it will play up the peace bid which helped bolster the stagnant economy and accelerated investment. But the spiralling cost of living and lack of employment opportunities are yet to be resolved. The LTTE is expected to promote proxy candidates to campaign in almost all the 26 electorates in the north and east where it has police and judicial control. Says Loganathan: "The LTTE will take the election seriously in order to ensure it gets some bargaining power."

While not singling out Kumaratunga for blame, India has not been too happy with the president's decision to call for a poll. India feels it is unlikely there will be too many changes in the seats won by both the parties. And the situation may well be back to square one with an election only serving to sharpen the divide. Indian investors are wary of the polls, especially if it throws up a patchwork Parliament. India is an increasingly important player in the country's economy and is set to become the island's main trading partner with bilateral trade reaching $1 billion (Rs 4,500 crore) last year, of which Indian exports amounted to $831 million. Sri Lanka's future continues to hang on a delicate balance.