In 2003 when the Narendra Modi Government threw out the RSS affiliate Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS) from the official residence of a BJP legislator which it had been using as its office since the early 1990s, little did it know that it was digging its own grave by alienating the powerful farmers' body. The chief minister acted against the BKS after its leaders used intemperate language against him during the negotiations on the power tariff hike he had imposed.

DISTURBED: Court cases and detractors make Modi's job unenviable

As political pundits analyse the huge decline in support for the BJP in Gujarat-from 20 seats in 1999 to 14 in 2004-Modi's arrogance, despite the clean governance he has provided, is being cited as the second biggest factor for the BJP's downslide, next only to the alleged appeasement of Muslims by the party's national leadership.

Says Maganbhai Patel, senior leader of the BKS, which has now demanded dismissal of the Modi Government for the BJP's poor show in the Lok Sabha polls: "A key local factor for the BJP's loss is Modi's arrogance and his anti-farmer attitude." Apparently, Modi has paid the price for his tough stance on power sector reforms in that he refused to yield to BKS' demands beyond a point.

An indication of what was in store for the BJP was obvious when party leaders A.B. Vajpayee and L.K. Advani addressed a meeting in Ahmedabad. Only 8,000 people turned up and most of them were BJP activists. Dinesh Patel, a party worker who attended the meeting, said, "With our party's pro-Muslim rhetoric, God knows how we are going to maintain our high seat tally in the state in the future." Though the BJP has managed to get more seats and a higher percentage of votes than the Congress in this election it has been a huge downslide for the party compared with its earlier performances in the state since 1991. It is the difference in the percentage of votes polled by the two parties more than the seat difference that tells the real story. From 7 per cent in 1999 the difference in the poll percentage of the two parties has narrowed down to around 2.3 per cent this time.

If one compares the BJP's show in 2004 with 1991 the party's loss is more glaring. The BJP polled 52.37 per cent in Gujarat in 1991, securing 20 of the total 26 seats while the Congress polled only 28.99 per cent, winning the remaining six seats-a difference of over 21 per cent in vote percentage.

The difference is remarkably conspicuous when compared with the party's performance in the 2002 assembly polls. The BJP had won 127 of the 182 seats. This time around, the Congress has secured the lead in 92 assembly segments compared with the BJP's 90. The Congress recovery in Gujarat was, in fact, stunning. Says state BJP chief Rajendrasinh Rana: "The reverse is totally unexpected. There are a combination of factors involved. We will analyse and take corrective measures."

Many feel Modi simply forgot that total absence of populism too can turn out to be back-breaking. For instance, if middlemen didn't have access to Modi, the party MLAs and workers also didn't have free access. But as a young BJP leader says, "You can't equate all the party workers with middlemen. There are genuine party workers as well. In nutshell, Modi is losing touch with ground realities." That apart, Modi had toned down his Hindutva rhetoric to suit his party's agenda.

SIT AND LOOK UP: Modi (right) along with former chief ministers Keshubhai Patel (centre) and Suresh Mehta

Also, at a review meeting, his rivals put down the poll losses to his defamatory remarks about Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her family. They say such personal attacks did not go down well with the voters. Modi, however, takes refuge in the fact that he had demanded the replacement of some unpopular BJP MPs-but his pleas were disregarded by the RSS.

The Supreme Court's strictures against Modi's Government in the Best Bakery case means a tough path ahead for the chief minister. He faces yet another threat. Using the Bilkis Banu rape case, which is being probed by the CBI, the new Government at the Centre could tighten the screws on him. That apart, the next hearing of the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) application for transferring around a dozen riot cases to courts outside Gujarat is scheduled for this August. If the apex court accedes to the NHRC plea Modi is in for more trouble.

Clearly, what is expected of him now is good governance minus his arrogance.