Less than a year ago, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav had sworn in a jumbo cabinet of 97 ministers in a House of 403, almost one-fourth the size of the Assembly. In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde had taken the tally of ministers to 69 in a House of 288. The era of jumbo cabinets will soon be over, thanks to a Constitutional amendment initiated by the NDA government.

GUARDING ALLIES: Mulayam (left) worries about upsetting the RLD

By July 7 more than 250 ministers will be axed in various states under the provisions of the Constitution's 97th Amendment Act 2003, which will come into effect then. The Act clearly states: "The strength of the Council of Ministers should be 15 per cent of the Lower House.'' For smaller states, it makes an exception: such states can have a minimum of 12 ministers. All other states with excess ministers will be forced to cut the flab at one go. The pruning of cabinets in the states will save over Rs 250 crore annually.

Continuing with the colonial tradition, each minister carries with him a retinue of public servants, an entourage of attendants while travelling and numerous security personnel. He invariably lives in a spacious bungalow and spends enormous sums as perks. Simple arithmetic will show that all of this works out to over a crore of rupees annually for maintaining the royal lifestyle of each minister.

The states that will be most affected by the legislation are Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where 28 and 26 ministers are to be dropped. In Jammu and Kashmir, the jobs of 27 ministers are on the firing line, while Punjab and Jharkhand will have to sack 13 ministers each. In Bihar 16 ministers are to be axed, five in Himachal Pradesh, four in Chhattisgarh and one in Goa. The seven sisters of the Northeast have, however, set a special record. Choc-a-bloc with 43 ministers in an Assembly of 60, Arunachal Pradesh will be forced to chop 31 posts. Of the 41 ministers in Meghalaya, 29 are to be axed. Pruning is also required in Nagaland, Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Mizoram.

Clearly, the size of the state has nothing to do with the number of ministers. It is more a corollary of misgovernance. The bigger the cabinet, the shorter the government lasts. Uttar Pradesh, known for its jumbo cabinets, takes the cake: it has had 17 governments in the past 15 years. Meghalaya witnessed six changes of government in one year.

The Standing Committee of Parliament, which discussed the 97th Amendment Bill threadbare, was led by Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee. Debating the Bill, Mukherjee had said: "This is an important step towards cleansing the political system.'' Yet, ironically, it is the Congress-led governments that rule almost half of the states (seven) where ministers are to be axed. In another irony, the NDA government introduced the Bill but five of the states are ruled by the BJP led-alliances. Two have Left Front governments and others are ruled by regional parties, like the SP in Uttar Pradesh and the RJD in Bihar. Although a consensus was reached among parties on the issue of pruning cabinets, there are deep divisions within each of them on the issue. So it is highly unlikely that 250 ministers will lose their jobs without a fight.

What are the possible faultlines? Normally, such a mega-pruning is likely to lead to a virtual political earthquake, with open rebellions, mass defections, splits in parties and even re-elections. But the framers of the Bill had the foresight to include a proviso making splits in the legislature wing of the political parties illegal. Therefore, desperate ministers facing the axe do not have the option to split their parent party. Says Congress leader Salman Khurshid: "Since splits have become illegal the pruning may not blow into a crisis but there still is enormous possibility of potential instability as is clear in Uttar Pradesh.''

In Bihar the Rabri Devi Government is considering rescheduling the assembly polls given the pressure of axing ministers. "The RJD's plan is to ask for the ministers' resignation en masse after the session and possibly call for early elections by October 2004," says former leader of the Opposition in Bihar and BJP leader Sushil Modi.

Clearly coalition governments face bigger threats than those ruled by single party. In Maharashtra, scheduled for polls in October, all ministers will be asked to resign and those axed will be accommodated elsewhere. "It is a coalition government and we have to keep in mind the larger interests of each partner,'' says Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. Leading a coalition government in Jharkhand, BJP Chief Minister Arjun Munda finds himself between Scylla and Charybdis. If he sacks BJP ministers, his rival and former chief minister Babulal Marandi is bound to get the upper hand. If he sacks JD(U) ministers only a miracle can bring him back in the 2005 elections. With fragile coalitions, the chief ministers of the north-eastern states will have a harrowing time finding a way out. Although West Bengal has a coalition government, yet in reality it is dominated by the CPI(M). Such dominance helped the party leadership in the state to unanimously trim the Cabinet from 48 to 43 ministers on June 2.

Chief ministers facing open rebellions have started devising ways and means to deal with the dilemma. Facing internal factionalism, Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh does not mince words: "We will have to adjust the ministers to be axed somewhere to make use of their ministerial experience." The PDP leadership has found an excuse in the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. Ditto with Nagaland. Others are considering accommodating sacked ministers in boards and corporations.

The legislation discourages accommodating sacked ministers in the boards but does not prohibit it. Says former power minister Suresh Prabhu: "There is a lacuna: unless the Amendment curbs the cost of administration it falls short of the ultimate objective of releasing funds for development."

In a cruel irony, an amendment, aimed at creating the much-needed reforms and stability, seems to have injected some instability. However, that may be true in the short-term. In the long-term, the 97th Amendment Act is likely to contribute to good governance. But it needs to be toned up to freeze the costs of administration and, thus, create more funds for the nuts and bolts of governance.

ASSEMBLY STRENGTH: 403 MLAs MINISTRY STRENGTH: 88 Ministers

15% assembly strength according to the Amendment is 60

MINISTERS TO BE AXED 88-60=28

STATE WILL SAVE Rs 28 crore

PER CAPITA INCOME* Rs 9,721

*Source: Economic Survey 2002-2003

AJIT SINGH: Ally MLA strength...................14 Ministers............................7 Likely to be chopped.......3

UTTAR PRADESH

Mulayam Singh Yadav's headache of sacking 28 ministers is compounded by the Congress' wooing of Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh. No doubt he has doubled their salaries. Ajit is the most likely defector if his seven ministers in the Government are dropped. Ajit is waiting to join the Congress Cabinet at the Centre. If both the Congress and the RLD withdraw support, the sp leader will be at the mercy of independents, claims Congress leader Salman Khurshid. What is the criteria for axing? Ministers may be made to pay the price for the failure of MPs from their constituencies says an SP leader.

BIHAR

The proposal for pruning the Cabinet hangs like a Damocles' sword over Bihar Chief Minister Rabri Devi. Imagine axing 16 ministers at a time when the RJD leadership has ended up grabbing eight portfolios in the Manmohan Singh-led Government at the Centre. And that too after the big fight between the RJD's Laloo Prasad Yadav and the Lok Jan Shakti Party's Ram Vilas Paswan over the railway portfolio.

The 97th Amendment has forced the RJD leadership to reschedule the assembly session. Desperate, the RJD leaders are now considering announcing the assembly polls right after the assembly session. Given that its ally in the state, the Congress, now has the upper hand in the bargain, the RJD leaders may be forced to sack more of the RJD ministers than the Congress ones. With Paswan playing footsie, the assembly polls for Laloo might not be a cakewalk like the Lok Sabha polls.

MAHARASHTRA

The task of axing 26 ministers has created a dilemma for Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. What should be the criteria for axing? Ministerial competence or the ability to win elections? Striking a balance between the Congress and its ally, the NCP, becomes even more important given that Maharashtra faces elections less than three months from the deadline for pruning the Cabinet. Both the major alliance partners have decided that their ministers would tender their resignations. "We are yet to work out modalities for portfolio distribution to govern for the next three months," says Shinde. The problem: if the best players are inducted into the ministry then who will help win the elections? The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance was ahead in 146 assembly segments in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. Having to face the pressure of downsizing the cabinet at a time when the rivals seem to have an advantage can be a nightmare.

JHARKHAND

Chief Minister Arjun Munda is having a harrowing time deciding whom to drop and whom to retain. Sources close to him say if he drops BJP ministers then he would be directly challenged by his main rival, former chief minister M. Babulal Marandi-the lone BJP winner in the Lok Sabha polls. But the real threat is from eight mercurial JD(U) ministers, five of whom belong to the former Samata Party.

These were the same ministers who had rebelled against Marandi and sat on dharna in Ranchi and Delhi to have him removed. As a part of the strategy they first joined the Congress-RJD alliance and even elected Speaker Inder Singh Namdhari as the chief ministerial candidate. However, once Marandi was removed, they returned to the BJP-led alliance. Afraid of these rebels, Munda is moving cautiously and thinking of removing only three Samata ministers in consultation with JD(U) leaders George Fernandes and Nitish Kumar.

WEST BENGAL

To facilitate the trimming, partners of the ruling Left Front, Forward Bloc and the RSP have dropped one minister each-food minister Kalimuddin Shams and irrigation minister Amalendra Lal Roy. But axing CPI(M) ministers was not a less-than-peaceful task. While Mohammad Salim resigned as minister of minority welfare after being elected to the Lok Sabha, two other CPI(M) ministers, Dhiren Sen and Anju Kar will resign. It was after the CPI(M)'s sweep in the recent Lok Sabha that many partymen felt emboldened to drop comrades.

JAMMU AND KASHMIR

Jammu and Kashmir has one of the highest number of ministers per MLA. But the state is all set to duck the new law. Under Article 370 any law passed by the Union Government cannot be automatically implemented in J&K unless it is ratified by the Assembly. The Mufti Mohammed Sayeed Government is not at all inclined to ratify the Amendment. "We are not keen to implement this law because of both political and security compulsions," says Deputy Chief Minister Mangat Ram Sharma. Both the PDP and the Congress are ruling with a wafer-thin majority forged by roping in a number of small parties and independent MLAs. "Enforcing such a revolutionary law would not be prudent for the stability of the coalition government engaged in the tough task of steering the state out of the woods," says the PDP's Vice-President Mehbooba Mufti.

Ironically, the Congress, which supported the cabinet-limitation law, is tip-toeing on the issue in the state. "Only a minister gets bullet proof car and enough security to be able to move around among the people which is crucial to defeat militancy," Sharma adds.

PUNJAB

Chief Minister Amarinder Singh is yet to work out a criteria for pruning his Cabinet. Before the Lok Sabha polls, he had announced that performance in their assembly segments would be the sole criteria for a place in the new-cast ministry. However, with the party routed in 11 of the 13 Lok Sabha seats, Amarinder faces a dilemma: all but five of his ministers have ended up with a poor performance. Most of those who could not get the party a lead in their assembly segments are Amarinder loyalists.

HIMACHAL PRADESH

When Virbhadra Singh came to power in March 2003, all the ministers were given cabinet rank to balance the claims of rival and state PCC chief Vidya Stokes. With the decline of Stokes, Singh has now hinted at pruning and reconstituting the ministry, with eight ministers of state.