Nearly a year ago after watching India at the Champions Trophy I had said that India required a "five-year coach" in order to establish a platform for consistent and reliable performance. For too long India has looked backwards to former halcyon days rather than forward to learn, grow and renew.

By the mid-1970s the signs were clear when India was defeated 6-1 by Australia in Montreal. Interestingly, Australia's coach in 1976 was from the subcontinent. Merv Adams was educated at Martiniere College in Lucknow. He taught the Australians how to play against India and Pakistan. Unfortunately, that young and ambitious Australian team did not compete in Moscow four years later where India had its last Olympic success in a tournament in which the world's best four teams were not present (Germany, Holland, Pakistan and Australia).

With due respect to outstanding players who were in that Indian team of 1980, the gold medal was an aberration which subsequent results confirmed. Since then India has finished 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 7th at the Olympics and its World Cup form has been 5th, 12th, 10th, 5th, 9th and 10th. Hardly suggests an Athens semifinal.

Despite a few patches, India has continued to be erratic since August 2003 and it will be a major shock if they make it to the semifinals in Athens. It is not impossible, as India has gifted players. However they lack in organisation, discipline, structure, tactics and consistency. The appointment of "new coaches" less than a month before Athens might have the uplifting effect of being fresh but there isn't enough time to consolidate anything.

Indeed, I know of no coach of any substance who would take on the job at such a time. Hence the appointment of a couple of previously "unknown and untested" club coaches from Germany. To the cynic this is the perfect coaching job for if the team does well you are a guru and if it fails you never had enough time. The great myth of coaching is that the coach somehow moves the pieces on the chessboard to bring about some special moves that can make all the difference in the tense cauldron of competition.

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That does not happen very often- the players make all the critical interventions, decisions and judgements. From outside, the coach can only have a small effect once the game starts. The critical part for the coach is the preparation in the months and years spent on training, playing and building a team with flexibility and depth. Over time the coach can refine technique, eliminate bad habits, teach strategy and develop tactics and scout opponents. These new coaches cannot possibly know their opposition well after only a few weeks in the international game.

Experiencing and learning from the highs and lows of competition help build a resilient unit that can handle the pressures of the Olympics. It takes more than a couple of weeks. This is what India has consistently failed to do and it is the principle reason why its abundant talent hasn't been enough for the past 29 years since the great Ajitpal Singh led India in Kuala Lumpur.

A hockey medal at the Olympics is difficult to win given that you must win a number of games consecutively to assure yourselves of a semifinal berth. India must defeat South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina and also take points off Australia (my tip to win gold) or the Netherlands. India can, of course, beat all these teams on occasions but to beat three or four of them in a week will be difficult.

So what might happen in Athens? The first game will perhaps be the most crucial as a win or draw would boost confidence and reassure. India meets the Netherlands, the current Olympic champions and winner of the last two Champions Trophies. They have the world's most dangerous goal-maker in Teun de Nooijer, very good penalty corner specialists, a tough and solid defence and loads of experience. Just could be they will underestimate India and they are often slow starters.

South Africa should be accounted for two days later but they are always very determined and are the sort of team that can upset anyone. Gregg Nicol has a great scoring record but India ought to prevail.

By the end of Thursday, August 19, India's fate could be sealed. They will have met the Netherlands and Australia. It is hard to see India upsetting the Aussies who have depth and flexibility and have prepared meticulously. Again India's best hope is that Australia might be too relaxed as they have recently defeated India easily.

Given that they handle New Zealand, India would still have another tough hurdle ahead. Over the past decade while their women's team has become world champions, Argentina's men have made consistent progress. They will cause upsets in Athens and India should not feel comfortable about having to beat them for a semifinal place. All Indians would remember playing Poland in Sydney.

Even after assuming a semifinal berth, the road to a medal would be difficult as it would entail a likely meeting with Germany, Spain, Pakistan or Korea. All those teams present different and difficult challenges.

There is no doubting India has some quality players. At times Devesh Chauhan has shown himself of the highest quality. Dilip Tirkey is a world-class defender although occasionally prone to clear recklessly while Ignace Tirkey is very solid. Deepak Thakur and Gagan Ajit can be brilliant but sometimes go missing. Dhanraj Pillay, 35, the best Indian of his time, will not be able to make the difference he once did.

The midfield might not have the method and organisation required. Their opponents will find their way to goal too often and not enough scoring chances will be created. Viren Rasquinha and Vikram Pillay are reliable but can they defend and penetrate as modern midfielders must? I was disappointed that I never saw more of Tejbir Singh who usually impressed when on the field. I thought Kanwalpreet Singh should have been replaced earlier. The tragedy of Jugraj Singh exemplifies India's lack of preparation. In every position, there must be backup plans and alternatives in place. However good Sandeep Singh may be, he will not likely have the exposure to allow him to score reliably from penalty corners.

To make the semifinals would be a great performance by India but in some ways it would, unfortunately, mask the long-term issues, which if not addressed soon will see the game slide further to oblivion in the place where it had its greatest era. This clever, diverse and proud country should not let this happen.

Many of us, who love the game dearly, want to see India's players utilising their abundant talents more effectively. The game needs this to be so.

If it does not happen soon then, in the words of Shakespeare, we will be watching the final decline of the game's most beautiful flower: For sweetest things turn sourest by their deeds;/

Lilies that fester smell far worse than weeds.

That is not a pleasant thought.

Ric Charlesworth represented Australia in 227 matches in 16 years.
An Olympic silver medallist and World Cup gold medallist, he then coached
the Australian women's team, who were world No.1 for eight years,
won two World Cups and two Olympic golds under his charge.