On the day of the US presidential elections, the customary rush on trains plying between Boston and Washington DC was missing. Everyone, it seems, was busy casting their vote-an unusual phenomenon that saw a record national turnout of 60 per cent for the polls. And when the robust challenger, John Kerry, conceded defeat midafternoon on November 3, President George W. Bush returned for another four-year term.

PICTURE SPEAK

Bush emerged a clear victor

When the curtain came down on the final six months of a presidential campaign that cost over $1.2 billion, Bush stood a clear winner in the popular vote that he garnered. Unlike in Florida, where his legitimacy was questioned after having lost the popular mandate, the President logged a provisional 58,541,730 votes-giving him a majority share of 51 per cent as compared to John Kerry's 48 per cent. In one stroke the ghosts of Florida and the nightmare of Bush senior's defeat after the triumphant first Iraq War had been exorcised.

If anything, it was a vote for national security. Bush had called a referendum on his war on terror and the occupation of Iraq and he got a positive vote. Across the heartland of America though, it was not the Iraq War, a botched presidential debate or the populist temptations of the Democratic challenger that swayed the electorate. Instead, exit polls showed that the fight was over moral values-with several states having to vote on the issue of gay marriages-that eventually turned the outcome of the ballot in favour of the Republicans. Moral values that the populace at large has associated with a President who has never shied away from publicising the fact that he is a born-again Christian. If anything, the mandate has also signalled an unambiguous rightward shift of the country.

ROBUST CAMPAIGN

361 mn is the amount in dollars that was raised for Bush's campaign. STUCK IN THE PAST 19 mn Americans used punch-card ballots in 30 states. LADIES' MAN 54% of married women voted for Bush. THE REPUBLICAN VOTE 58.5 mn votes won by Bush. Victory margin: 3.5 mn votes. The first Republican in 16 years to win the popular vote.

The campaign to urge people to vote-which saw thousands of volunteers spread across the country and nearly $350 million being spent on advertisements and campaign material-has also led to stunning Republican victories in the House of Representatives and the Senate, which has ensured their control of Congress. The record turnout, which normally works against the incumbent, in the final analysis worked to the advantage of Bush.

The President is expected to draw on the strength of this mandate rather than be chastened by the passionate negation that he has suffered at the hands of almost half the American populace. As a result, it is clear that the broad outlook would be "more of the same" as the administration gets ready to face the new challenges.

On the external front, this will include taking the war on terror to its logical conclusion, putting a time frame on bringing stability and peace to Iraq and putting the brakes on nuclear proliferation. To address these issues, Bush will have to garner support internationally and reach across the aisle to the Democrats. But this may be easier said than done. Internationally, the fault lines run deep and his re-election will definitely strengthen the hands of extremist elements in the Middle East. Domestically, a closely contested election is hardly the required palliative to soothe the differences that run deep.

The George Bush Agenda: What it means for the world    WATCH OUT FOR THE RE-ENERGISED REPUBLICANS

PROFILE: Son of former President George H.W. Bush and an MBA from Harvard University, Bush, 58, first dabbled in energy business. In the late 1970s he started helping his father in politics. He served two terms as the governor of Texas from 1995 to 2000 before becoming the President in 2001. Vice-President Cheney Bush with wife and daughter THE FIRST FAMILY: Sparkling, smiling, soft-spoken and very, very caring in her manner, Laura Bush is someone who fits the script. She has been one of the most popular first ladies of all time, with polls showing almost three in four Americans hold a favourable view of her. The traditional Laura, mother of twin girls, scored over her elitist counterpart Teresa Heinz Kerry in the election campaign. Vice-President Dick Cheney is another mate Bush will continue to count on. STRENGTHS Is focused, conveys clarity of purpose, does not hesitate in taking decisions fraught with risks and can rely on very experienced cabinet members. OPPORTUNITIES No longer eligible for re-elections, he can act with greater freedom. If his party retains control of the Congress, he can effect bold legislative changes. WEAKNESSES His inability to communicate with the Opposition: abrasive style alienates and provokes strong responses. Takes criticism personally. THREATS A hostile world environment, alienated allies, nuclear proliferation threats from North Korea and Iran. Waning economy and fiscal pressure. HIS STAND ON ... TERRORISM: Will stick to his aggressive strategy, while trying to regain the support of former allies in tackling the threat of nuclear proliferation by Iran. Wants to renew the provisions of the USA Patriot Act. Iraq was the sticky wicket Bush scores on Afghanistan IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN: Will continue with the existing policies in the two countries unapologetically. In Iraq, his stress would be on training Iraqi security forces in the face of spiralling law and order problem in the war-ridden country. Will try to win back allies as part of a larger umbrella whose scope would include tackling other pressing global concerns like nuclear proliferation by Iran and North Korea. Is inclined to increase funding for bunker-busting nuclear weapons. OUTSOURCING Will not initiate any legislation against outsourcing from US companies to overseas markets. Will work to defuse the existing political pressure on the issue by pushing for higher growth that generates more jobs. Outsourcing gets thumbs up Going easy on labour provisions WORLD TREATIES: Will tone down his dismissive attitude towards treaties like the Kyoto Protocol and multilateral approach to the United Nations to win over allies. May not reverse any steps, whether it is stalling the CTBT or the Kyoto Protocol. Is unlikely to get tough on labour and environmental provisions in trade with developing countries. Will continue FTA talks with a score of trading partners. SOUTH ASIA: May put greater pressure on Pakistan on the issue of cross-border terrorism and the pursuit of Al-Qaeda in the North-West Frontier Province.

The onus in both instances is likely to fall on the key appointments-some prominent members in the cabinet are likely to be axed and some elevated to cabinet rank-that Bush is likely to effect in his second tenure. Secretary of State Colin Powell may be replaced by Condoleezza Rice, the current National Security Adviser. There is talk of controversial Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld also getting a new portfolio. The buzz within the beltway is that former ambassador to India Robert Blackwill, who is in charge of the campaigns of Iraq and Afghanistan, may be given a prominent post.

CREW CHANGE

RUMSFELD Secretary of Defense There is talk of the controversial Bush aide getting a new portfolio. RICE National Security Adviser She is likely to replace Colin Powell as the Secretary of State. POWELL Secretary of State The former army chief and Bush's pointman is likely to find a new role. BLACKWILL Former envoy to India In charge of Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns, he may get a prominent post.

All of this would be dovetailed with the new global order that the Bush team has ordained in the wake of the 9/11 strategy. Not only did it endow America with a muscular foreign policy, it did not preclude it from pursuing strong bilateral relations with countries like India-which the Administration perceives as a "natural" long term ally. In its own perception the post-Cold War outlook is bringing about a recasting of the global order with Asia as the new fulcrum. And even within Europe the Bush Administration has gone out of its way to court "New Europe" to make up for the loss of old friends.

Domestically, the second term Bush Administration will be looking to shore up the economy and address the pressing issues of burgeoning healthcare costs and the social security conundrum. The latter would be crucial in shoring up support at the expense of a Democratic Party that has been at the receiving end of a thoroughly demoralising defeat in the 2004 election cycle. The resounding win in the Senate races gives the Bush Administration a historic opportunity to effect legislative changes and push through key appointments to the Supreme Court. It also offers President Bush a chance to devote more time to party building. Something he had taken up with unprecedented zeal in his first term. If successful, the Bush legacy in the US' home politics would be as enduring as the cataclysmic shifts that he has forced globally.

Next Story

RELATED STORIES:

A Fight to the Finish

At the Helm of Affairs

Who Will Be Good For India?

Index