They all sound like Louis XV of France: Apres moi le deluge. Beyond the leader, there is nothing except his shadow-or his family. Indian politics is fast evolving into a singular story, biologically at least, in which the paranoid helmsman has become the least democratic entity in one of the world's most volatile democracies. He is the party. He is the policy. He is the ideology. Across the political spectrum, the heir is no longer apparent, unless he is a genetic extension of the paramount leader. It is not the Congress story alone. Rather, it is the colonisation of Congressism. In the BJP, anti-Congressism's boldest expression, the idea of succession has reached a biological deadend. When in doubt, it takes refuge in two familiar old men. One of them is back as president for the fifth time in the BJP's 24 years of existence, but, hello, is anybody out there beyond L.K. Advani? The so-called Generation Next has not happened. They failed the party, and the party failed them too. It took only six years in power for the party to repudiate a historic mandate and to suspend elections within. Power led its leadership to a grand illusion. Defeat closed its mind.

In India's Grand Old Party, it has always been the case: politics as a family enterprise, with the faithful looking up to the only Leader who could deliver. It is a party defined by the temptations of the Dynasty, and the Family is back after an extended term in wilderness. In Sonia Gandhi's Congress, the next big question is a simple one: who is the next Gandhi? Leaders with other mundane surnames are too servile to complain.

In the merciless heartland, the politics of social justice-call it Mulayam or Laloo-has already become a one-leader vaudeville with family as the supporting cast. From the Abdullahs and the Muftis in Kashmir to the Karunanidhi clan in Tamil Nadu, the scenario is more or less the same, with minor cultural variations in the script. Between J. Jayalalithaa and her cardboard double, there is no space for another leader to make an appearance; there are only eternal submission and fear. The communist parties are the lone exceptions. There, it is still the dictatorship of the politburo.

It is the age of the chosen leader, not the elected leader. The fear of the unknown and the instinct of survival ensure that the chosen one chooses the family-or divides and rules. Ideology is dead. And ideas are far from the leader's mind. The alternative to the leader is the leader himself. The next leader in any of the political parties in India won't be chosen by inner-party democracy, but by ancestry or desperation. After all, democracy is such a wonderful thing-as long as it is not applied in-house.

1 Bharatiya Janata Party
L.K. ADVANI President
EST: 1980 PRESIDENT FROM 2004

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BACK TO THE FRONT: Advani

Of the 24 years of BJP's existence, it has had one man at its helm for over 10 years: L.K. Advani. The other patriarch, A.B. Vajpayee, comes a close second, having held the job for six years. Last month, after the Maharashtra drubbing, the BJP office bearers once again selected Advani as their chief; and later it was ratified by the party's National Council. That is how democracy works in the BJP.

Until last month, a smug BJP scoffed at the Congress' dynasty politics and pointed to its second-rung leadership. But at crisis time, none of its own Gen Next made the grade. The reason is simple: a six-year stint in power saw the rise of individual aspirations rather than ideology. An I-Me-Myself brand of politics flourished under M. Venkaiah Naidu's rule where each of his contemporaries saw himself or herself as the next best thing. Advani's comment soon after the Lok Sabha debacle that the next general elections could be fought under a new leader merely made things worse. Instead of multiplying the numbers, it has brought the leadership equation back to just one.

2 Indian National Congress
SONIA GANDHI President
EST: 1885 PRESIDENT SINCE 1998

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THE NEW MRS G: Sonia

In the Congress, power flows down from the apex of the pyramid rather than up from its base, in an exact reversal of democratic process. The result is a prime minister by nomination, chief ministers by nomination and even a party organisation by nomination.

It speaks volumes for the Congress mindset that its leaders hail Sonia, the product of dynasticism gone overboard, as a leader with strong democratic instincts, as one who believes in decentralisation and delegation. They take the patron-client relationship between the supreme leader and the rest as part of the natural order of things. No one expects Rahul Gandhi, a mere MP, to take the trouble of visiting an AICC general secretary. The latter must go and see him at 10 Janpath.

Coteries are already building up around Priyanka and Robert Vadra, and Rahul. Will marriage to Veronique, a foreign national, compromise Rahul's political career? Will Sonia overcome her reservations about her son-in-law and anoint her daughter as successor? The party may prefer the charismatic Priyanka to moody Rahul, but will accept Sonia's choice. No one would dream of asking the party worker how he feels about it.

3 Rashtriya Janata Dal
LALOO PRASAD YADAV President
EST: 1997 PRESIDENT SINCE 1997

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IT RUNS IN THE FAMILY: Laloo and Rabri Devi

Laloo Prasad Yadav assiduously preaches what he does not practise. Having attacked dynastic politics during his years of anti-Congressism, he has now institutionalised it at home. It was his wife who succeeded him as chief minister rather than his second-in-command Raghuvansh Prasad Singh or even his close confidante Kanti Singh.

Rabri Devi continues in power and the RJD looks more and more like a family concern. Laloo's brothers-in-law Sadhu and Subhash Yadav are party MPs. But in terms of a successor, Laloo is likely to choose from among his nine children. The eldest, Misa Bharti, may be the one on whom the mantle will fall. While her political tutelage is under way, her husband Sailesh Kumar has shown little interest in politics and is not likely to do a Chandrababu Naidu on his father-in-law. Laloo's two oldest sons Tej Pratap and Tarun Kumar could well be in the running a decade from now. But one thing is clear: the next RJD boss will be from the family.

4 Samajwadi Party
MULAYAM SINGH YADAV President
EST: 1992 PRESIDENT SINCE 1992

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HEARTLAND HERO: Mulayam

The SP appears as much family-owned as the Congress-ironical, considering Mulayam Singh Yadav's professed loathing for dynasty. His son Akhilesh, an Australia-educated computer scientist, is an MP from Kannauj. Mulayam's brother and PWD Minister Shivpal beams from hoardings all over Lucknow as the SP's own lauh purush. In Mulayam's absence, he becomes the de facto chief minister. Away in Delhi, it is cousin Ram Gopal Yadav who leads the party in the Lok Sabha.

The SP has outsourced some of its jobs-fund management, corporate communications-to General Secretary Amar Singh. The Thakur neta, who appears along with Mulayam at rallies and on posters, is the alternative power centre. The party rank and file may not have much faith in his high-flying business or his Bollywood buddies but he wields much clout in Parliament. When crunch time comes, Mulayam may well opt for the troika of Shivpal, Amar Singh and Akhilesh to succeed him and spare himself the trouble of making a choice.

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