It is unlikely that the Karachi-born career banker Shaukat Aziz ever imagined before 1999 that he would one day be sworn in as Pakistan's prime minister. And that too as the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) representative of a constituency-Attock, near Rawalpindi-with which he has almost no ties. But such are the vicissitudes of Pakistani politics that after the army takeover in 1999, Aziz seemed almost destined for this fate.

PICTURE SPEAK

MAN AND MENTOR: Aziz was handpicked by Musharraf (right) to head the Government

Picked personally by General Pervez Musharraf from Citibank to head the Federal Finance Ministry in 1999, Aziz, who will become the first Pakistan prime minister in more than a decade to visit India, is widely considered as Pakistan's economic whiz. He is credited with having provided macro-economic stability to an almost bankrupt economy. Under his tenure, growth reached over 6 per cent, Pakistan's forex reserves touched record highs and the stock indices broke all previous records. While some analysts attribute this turnaround to the effects of 9/11 and the position Pakistan found itself in rather than Aziz's brilliance, there is no doubt that he won the trust and support of local business community as well as international donors such as the IMF.

More importantly, he continued to enjoy the backing of Musharraf and the army. So when Zafarullah Jamali quit as prime minister in June after a prod from the presidency, Musharraf made it quite clear who he wanted as a replacement. Aziz, a PML-backed senator, was elected to the National Assembly and promptly chosen leader of the House.

WHAT TO EXPECT DURING THE VISIT

ON KASHMIR: While progress will be reviewed, no radical moves as recently proposed by General Musharraf. ON ECONOMIC TIES: Aziz may propose expansion of ties, boosting prospects of the gas pipeline from Iran. ON PEACE WITH INDIA: Aziz will make the right noises but India knows it is not him but the army that calls the shots. ON REGIONAL COOPERATION: As the chairman of SAARC, the Pakistan PM is likely to push for greater cooperation.

There were many expectations from the new prime minister. For the business community, he was the competent technocrat they have always wished were in charge. For many ordinary Pakistanis, he was the modern face of civilian Pakistan, untainted by the corruption of the political system. It was clear from the beginning as well that, given his credentials, Aziz's focus would be on the economic uplift of Pakistan, which most people identify as the top priority for the country.

Two months down the road, however, some of the sheen seems to be wearing off for Aziz. For one, till last week there had been no explicit laying out of Aziz's dynamic vision of the way forward for Pakistan. Also, there are reports that his rise is a result of an understanding between Musharraf and veteran politico Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain that Aziz would have no say in political matters. Even Aziz has been careful to sidestep controversial issues such as ties with India, nuclear weapons and the army's role in politics, which are considered Musharraf's domain.

Added to this is the perception that Aziz has no roots among the masses, and, therefore, "serves at the pleasure of the president". Even if Aziz were willing to be more of an "awami" leader-which by nature he is not inclined to be-his close escape from the attempted suicide attack on him during his election campaigning has ensured that he is less disposed to putting himself in potential harm's way by mingling with the masses. All this paints Aziz as a distant, inaccessible prime minister. The prime minister also faces a test of his nerves if the still fractured opposition gets its act together and launches street protests-as it has been threatening-against the army's continuing role in politics. Parliament and the Senate have both voted to allow Musharraf to retain his army uniform as president beyond December 31, but the matter is still far from settled.

PICTURE SPEAK

BORDERLINE: Musharraf's proposals on the border settlement are unlikely to move beyond the drawing board

Aziz, however, has a couple of important aspects going in his favour. It is still too early in his term to pronounce judgement on him. For another, he is also a shrewd operator who rose to the top of his chosen profession by hard work and considerable charm. These are all qualities that will serve him well in Pakistan's toughest job. Having accepted the parameters of his appointment, he is likely to speak in a voice that represents the unified voice of the Pakistani establishment, particularly the military. And, unless he missteps, his aloofness from overt party politics may also insulate him from intrigues.

Aziz's focus on the economy will also mean that he is likely to push for better economic ties between Pakistan and India. This bodes well for the opening up of trade and the negotiations for the multi-million dollar gas pipeline from Iran, across Pakistan, to India. As a pragmatist, he knows that the economic revival of Pakistan is intrinsically tied to the absence of tensions on its borders and to greater regional cooperation. It would be naive, however to believe, that he could push forward the peace process with India over the objections-if there are any-of the army establishment. His visit to India on November 23 and 24 is largely as chairman of SAARC and bilateral issues may only be on the sidelines. Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri has said he would not be bringing any proposals on Kashmir that Musharraf announced recently.

For now, Musharraf and the army are fully behind Aziz. But the prime minister knows that he must prove India's flexibility over the Kashmir issue before offering radical progress in bilateral relations. And perhaps also to retain the confidence of the establishment in himself.

Index