Even before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh landed in Srinagar on November 17 he had taken one of the biggest steps by an Indian leader to reduce tensions in the Valley since terrorist violence spiralled out of control in 1989. By announcing the scaling down of troops in the Valley, Manmohan signalled that he was ready to smoke the peace pipe provided Pakistan kept puffing it too and stuck to its commitment made to India on cross-border terrorism.

PICTURE SPEAK

PIPES OF PEACE: (From left) CM Mufti Sayeed, Manmohan and Ghulam Nabi Azad at the rally

Manmohan continued to surprise Kashmir experts with his bold gambit, using the visit to make significant statements not just for Pakistan and the world but also to address contentious issues that have beset the Valley. For separatist groups, including the Hurriyat, the prime minister sent a clear message that while he was willing to talk to everyone unconditionally, there would be no further cajoling to bring them to the negotiating table. Nor would they be allowed to place conditions like a visit to Islamabad.

He also made it abundantly clear to Pakistan that General Pervez Musharraf's recent proposals on Kashmir would not go far. "I made it clear to President Musharraf that any redrawing of the international border or any proposal which smacks of further division was not acceptable to us," Manmohan said.

The prime minister's stand on the Hurriyat is at variance with what Home Minister Shivraj Patil had said earlier. During his first visit to the troubled region, Patil said the Government would consider the Hurriyat's request to visit Pakistan if the separatists applied through proper channel. "If we are to progress on the path of peace and reconciliation, it is important that those people holding the guns should be taken into confidence," says Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who heads the moderate faction of the Hurriyat. "Our Pakistan visit would have pushed forward the peace process." The Hurriyat's desire to adopt a mediatory role between India and Pakistan has also been looked upon bleakly by Delhi.

At the public rally in Srinagar, Manmohan promised a fresh impetus for the economic development of the state. He dangled a figure of Rs 24,000 crore to be invested over the next four years for the overall infrastructural development of Jammu and Kashmir. Says a senior PMO official: "The prime minister indicated that his Government was keen on having a long-term engagement in improving the political and economic framework of the state. He was not pushing for overnight political solutions."

PICTURE SPEAK

SIGH OF RELIEF: Soldiers get ready to pull out of Anantnag

Later in the evening, Manmohan announced the setting up of a special high power advisory council to evolve "an integrated and holistic" view of the state's long-term economic and social development. The Government gave details of the prime minister's plan, including the creation of 24,000 government jobs and employment opportunities for some 14,000 women through anganwadis. All villages in the state would to be electrified by 2007 and the 240 MW Uri II and 330 MG Kishanganga hydro-electric power plants would be completed to meet the shortage of power supply. Also, the sewerage and drainage systems of Srinagar are to be modernised, the airport upgraded and the Dal Lake cleaned up. There are plans to boost tourist traffic too.

The visit wasn't without hiccups though. Hours before the prime minister arrived, security forces killed two militants who had taken positions near the Sher-e-Kashmir stadium, the venue of the rally. Security experts are concerned that the militants were able to breach the prime minister's security circles. Professor Riyaz Punjabi of JNU says, "The integration of fundamentalist in the nationalist structure is worrisome. The fundamentalists are all over the place, even in the secretariat."

However, it didn't deter Manmohan from going ahead with his peace overtures. "If violence goes down and if infiltration (of militants) ends it will become easier for me to reduce forces further," he declared. Even as Manmohan was addressing the rally, the first batch of troops pulled out from Anantnag. It was a welcome sight for those in the Valley. Mohammed Shafi, who sells army uniforms in Anantnag, felt the reduction in troops would "certainly improve the situation". But the army has clarified that reduction does not imply it would be less effective in countering terrorism. Lt-General Nirbhay Sharma, commander of 15 Corps, says, "We are not going to lower our guard."

PM'S SIGNALS

TROOPS WITHDRAWAL: Army presence in the Valley will be scaled down. There are five lakh troops in J&K. About 40,000 will be withdrawn. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT: Rs 24,000 crore to be invested in infrastructural development of the state over the next four years. PEACE TALKS: Government willing to talk to all factions, including the Hurriyat, without any preconditions. BORDER REDEFINITION: No redrawing of the international border. Any proposal that involves further division is not acceptable to India. UNEMPLOYMENT: Creation of 24,000 government jobs and employment for 14,000 women in anganwadis.

Following the prime minister's announcement on reduction of troops in Jammu and Kashmir, both the director-general of military operations and the director-general of military intelligence have been working closely on the technicalities of the scaling down. Though the army refuses to confirm, it is expected that 40,000 troops will be withdrawn in a phased manner over a period of two months. The withdrawal will begin initially in areas south of the Pir Panjal. There are about 5,00,000 troops deployed in Jammu and Kashmir along the Line of Control, the Actual Ground Position Line in Siachen and in the Counter Insurgency grid.

According to Army Headquarters, the pullout of troops will begin initially from civilian populated areas. Around 2,000 personnel will be withdrawn soon from Sharifabad in Srinagar and Awantipura in Pulwama district. "But we will be constantly reviewing the situation. If violence levels increase, then there will be re-adjustments," says an army official. More importantly, since the ceasefire call early this year by both India and Pakistan, there has been relative quiet along the loc.

The troop withdrawal is as important diplomatically as militarily. Clearly, Manmohan has embarked on a Kashmir strategy fraught with dangers. He concedes there is a risk but defines it as a "low" one. But while dealing with the Valley it may be wise for the Government to keep in mind Murphy's First Law: If anything can go wrong, it will.

-with Lakshmi Iyer and Murali Krishnan

RELATED STORIES:

The New Roadblocks

Index