There are times when the usually unflappable Laloo Prasad Yadav tends to get a bit restive. Last week saw one such occasion when Laloo's cabinet colleague Ram Vilas Paswan, Union minister for steel, chemicals and fertilisers, held a rally at Patna's Gandhi Maidan. It was massive by any yardstick and comparisons were even drawn to the one that Jayaprakash Narayan held in 1974 while launching the Total Revolution that culminated in Indira Gandhi clamping Emergency.

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FRIENDS TO FOES: The spat between Paswan (left) and Laloo intensifies

Laloo was worried when reports of the rally reached him. Paswan, he realised, could spoil his chances of extending his 15-year-old rule in the state. His response was a bout of mudslinging: he charged Paswan with being involved in a Rs 800 crore crane deal scandal as railways minister during the H.D. Deve Gowda regime. He not only threatened to make the documents public but also said that Paswan headed a mafia group and was seeking the help of criminals to capture power in the assembly elections due in February next year. Paswan, on the other hand, accused Laloo of trying to sabotage rallies conducted by his Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) and also harassing his party workers and leaders. He charged the Bihar Government with wilfully conducting raids on the houses of some of the LJP leaders.

Laloo and Paswan are of course friends turned foes. That they sit in the same cabinet meeting presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has not diminished the intensity of their rivalry. The LJP was at the forefront of the campaign against the Laloo-Rabri "jungle raj" during the previous assembly polls. But in the Lok Sabha polls early this year, they joined hands with the Congress against the BJP-led NDA in Bihar. The truce, however, was shortlived as Laloo walked away with the Railways Ministry that Paswan had coveted. Since then there has been nothing private-or civil-about the frequent spats between the two cabinet colleagues.

LALOOSPEAK

"For 15 years they have tried to dislodge my government." "I've signed a pact with the people to rule for 20 years." "Nitish, Sharad, Paswan are all opportunists, they'll lose." PASWANTALK "Laloo-Rabri don't deserve even five minutes in power." "A worried Laloo is foisting false cases on LJP leaders." "Tainted RJD ministers have sullied the UPA's image."

This, of course, is cause for worry for the Congress. The prime minister was abroad when the two went for each other's jugular, but on his arrival he promised to work out a rapprochement. Manmohan Singh's worry is understandable. The Congress badly needs the support of the 29 MPs of the RJD and its allies but is in no mood to antagonise Paswan either. So all that the UPA Government can do at the moment is to look the other way and hope that the problem will simply vanish.

It may not be that simple though. Ever since the war of words between the two broke out, the NDA and in particular its main constituent in Bihar, the JD(U), has been trying to woo Paswan, the militant Dalit leader, to build a broader alliance against Laloo. Former railways minister and JD(U) strongman Nitish Kumar even publicly promised to hand over the chief ministership to Paswan if he crossed over in time for the February polls. But Paswan, who has emerged as the main challenger to Laloo, has so far shown no signs of falling for such baits and seems inclined to take on the might of Laloo on his own.

Though associates in the anti-Congress crusade during the 1970s and '80s, the relationship between the two have deteriorated considerably. Last week's show of strength, Paswan believes, is proof that the people of Bihar are tired of the Laloo-Rabri regime and want to put an end to 15 years of misrule. Laloo is dismissive of Paswan's challenge: "What is new in it? He has been campaigning against our Government for the past 15 years."

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NOT IN HIS STARS: Sinha is not the BJP's best bet

This is not suggest the race is two-cornered. The BJP too is fancying its chances. It first projected filmstar-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha to lead the anti-Laloo campaign but then did a somersault when it realised the adverse socio-political implications in a state where elections are won and lost on the backward card. Besides, the BJP does not want to annoy powerful JD(U) leaders like Kumar, Sharad Yadav and Digvijay Singh who were feeling uncomfortable ever since the BJP leadership started talking of returning to Hindutva to regain its lost ground in the Hindi belt.

During the BJP National Executive meeting last week in Ranchi, state BJP President G.N. Singh wanted Sinha to lead the party's Parivartan Yatra from Champaran, from where Mahatma Gandhi had launched the Satyagraha movement. It took a while for the BJP to realise that elections in Bihar cannot be won as they are in Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan where the BJP is strong on its own and can afford to prop up leaders like Uma Bharati and Vasundhara Raje. In Bihar, where it has to bank on local allies, the party cannot afford to provoke its main ally, the JD(U). Kumar for one has been asserting that Laloo's cultivated secular-brand politics could effectively be countered by putting up a secular front against him.

TIE-UP TANGLES

SCENARIO 1: JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar is wooing LJP's Paswan who is inimical to the BJP. There could be a split in the JD(U) if Kumar responds to Paswan's call to break away from NDA and joins hands with Paswan. So it means JD(U)-Kumar?BJP. SCENARIO 2: With George Fernandes not in favour of any partnership with the LJP, it again points to a split in the JD(U) and a possible Kumar-Paswan tie-up. A split in the JD(U) would be Laloo's dream. SCENARIO 3: Another possibility is Paswan willing to concede that the BJP is the lesser evil than Laloo and join the NDA. In other words, a repeat of the 1999 pre-Lok Sabha poll combination which had wiped out the RJD. Will that spell Laloo's Waterloo then?

Besides, BJP also knows that charisma and star image alone are not adequate to defeat Laloo. In a state where society is vertically divided between backward and forward and between backward and backward (Yadav backwards vs non-Yadav backwards), it would be difficult for someone like Sinha to make a dent. That perhaps explains why the state BJP leadership has started playing safe and is refraining from projecting anyone as chief minister. Says Sushil Kumar Modi, BJP MP and Bihar election campaign committee convener: "We are yet to decide under whose leadership this election will be fought. A decision on this will be taken only after consulting our allies."

As for the Congress, it is status quo. It is a no-win situation for the party like it has been for the past 15 years. Having allied itself with Laloo, it is resigned to the fact that in Laloodom, there is no scope for the party to grow. A section of the state's leaders wants the party to break away and chart an independent course. But the high command is aware that it does not have charismatic leaders in the state unit that it can project.

In any case, the party's first priority is to keep the UPA Government at the Centre going, even if two of its major constituents are at each other's throats. The UPA's advice of restraint seems to have had no effect on Paswan who continues to rave and rant against Laloo from every available platform. With elections just months away, the internecine war in the UPA, involving two of its Bihari leaders, is only likely to get uglier.

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