It is a question of what is right and what is left. Every budget inspires the Left to see red over reforms and liberalisation. This time, being part of the ruling UPA, its high-decibel rhetoric assumes added importance and raises visions of the tail wagging the dog. In fact, the pre-budget attacks of the Left contained a surfeit of canine references but whether the bark turns into bite remains to be seen.

PICTURE SPEAK

BANNER OF PROTEST: The Left gets tough on reforms

This time around, the Left's ire over the UPA's pursuit of reforms has led to the Third Front bogey being revived, a warning that necessitated hasty conciliatory efforts-soothing phone calls and placatory meetings-by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Sharp differences have emerged on the political front as well, with the Left piqued at the Congress' strategy in Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh which adversely affects secular leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav. The result has been an escalation of the verbal attacks that threatens to cast a shadow over Budget 2005.

The most serious threat was contained in the draft political resolution of the CPI(M) which warned of the Third Front alternative if the UPA continues in its "anti-people" mode. The CPI was not far behind with party General Secretary A.B. Bardhan predicting "dark days ahead" for the UPA. For added effect, CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet declared that the Government could not "survive for a minute without Left support". Clearly, the Manmohan Government's reforms agenda has the Left worried about what Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has up his sleeve. As the RSP's Abani Roy says, "Why should we support this Government? First they make decisions and then they consult us." However, it is the political equivalent of the "Good Cop-Bad Cop" strategy that seems to have diluted the Left's anti-UPA campaign, with a clear differentiation between the Government and the Congress leadership. "There is a disconnect between Congress President Sonia Gandhi's vision and the policies of the Government," says CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP Nilotpal Basu.

PICTURE SPEAK

NO CAMARADERIE: Sonia, Jyoti Basu, Surjeet and Manmohan

Despite the raised hackles, political scientist Ashish Nandy says he sees no immediate danger to the UPA. But he expects trouble in the long run: "Rhetoric has a way of catching up with you. A message percolates down and then it is beyond control." The Left, he says, has a dual compulsion. "It must play to its own constituency. It cannot afford to look like the b-team of the Congress. It must indulge in this kind of posturing against liberalisation even while pursuing economic reforms in West Bengal." The Left's other need is a weak Congress, observes Nandy. Keeping the BJP out of power is its top priority, but keeping the Congress weak by harping on the Third Front alternative is also important. The Left is also aware of a section of the Congress that does not subscribe to Manmohanomics and would be happy if its lobbying can rein in the headlong rush to liberalisation.

Adding to the heat and dust over reforms and the FDI are the differences on the political front that have emerged with the current state elections. The comrades have little stake in Bihar and Jharkhand but have been vocal in their criticism of the Congress strategy which aims at a long-term revival of the party in these states. The Left has flayed the Congress' flirtation with former NDA allies Ram Vilas Paswan and Mayawati. But it is actually more worried about a resurgent Congress in the north. As part of its strategy to hedge its political bets in the long term, the CPI(M) is pressing for the strengthening of a Third Front, a vision that would be handicapped if the Congress were to emerge stronger in key northern states. Even here, the Left has problems. "Our concept of the Third Front differs from Mulayam's. We want a common policy platform and not just a political formation," says Basu.

GRIPES OF WRATH

ECONOMY: FDI hike in strategic sectors like telecom and airports. Proposed increase of FDI in banks and retail sector. LABOUR: Proposed labour law reforms and disinvestment of PSUs. PATENTS: Ratification of the Patents Ordinance promulgated in 2004. SUBSIDIES: Proposed pruning of subsidies, overhaul of targeted public distribution system through a "food coupons" scheme. POLITICS: The Congress' strategy in states such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh where it has spurned ties with parties such as the RJD.

In the immediate context, however, the focus is on next week's budget and its political fallout. Congress leaders say it gets the Left's message loud and clear: don't push us too far. But there are clear areas of economic policy that could see the Left in conflict with the Government in the budget session of Parliament. They have already criticised the hike in FDI in telecom and airports and are also vehemently opposed to domestic airlines plying foreign routes. They have sharpened their opposition to the proposed FDI in banks and the retail sector, disinvestment of PSUs, further opening up the insurance sector, labour reforms, pruning of subsidies and the Patents Bill. In a recent article, CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury contested the prime minister's claim that liberalisation had boosted the economy.

So far, the Left has refused to ratify the patents ordinance, which could well lapse as a result, unless the BJP agrees to bail out the Government. However, says a Union minister, the Left may agree to a couple of face-saving amendments and pass the bill, particularly with the Swadeshi Jagran Manch coming out strongly against it. But more reforms are in the pipeline and the Left is beginning to get distinctly uneasy. Going by current calculations, the muscle flexing by the Left can only gather momentum. It is no accident, say Congress insiders, that the CPI(M) is holding its Party Congress in Delhi for the first time, within shouting distance of South Block. Post-budget, the barking could well acquire a more menacing tone. But the overarching political priority, to keep the BJP out of power for as long as possible, could once again see the red light turn amber.

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