India-Pakistan relations seem shackled to history. In less than a week, the peace bus will ferry passengers between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, a historic step forward in the ongoing lovefest between the two former enemies. The two countries are currently engaged in an engrossing cricket series, minus the earlier bitter rivalry between fans. People-to-people contacts have never been higher and the groundswell of public opinion more in favour of peace. Yet, old mindsets remain, most visibly in the area of defence expenditure and strategic one-upmanship. Last week's announcement by the Bush Administration that it would sell an unlimited number of F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan has brought that back into public focus.

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Our 1981 cover on Indo-Pak arms race

For one, it symbolises a shift in the US strategy towards the subcontinent. The F-16 offer to Islamabad, its frontline ally, is meant to give President Pervez Musharraf a shield against his anti-US opponents in Pakistan. They have used the denial of the advanced F-16s to Pakistan as an example of the US being selective in its support for Musharraf. The larger symbolism relates to India. By offering Delhi the option of buying F-16s or F-18s, the first time the US has done so in the case of its frontline fighter aircraft, it is signalling a new relationship. The offer includes a range of technology hitherto denied to India. This marks, for the first time, a relationship shorn of the traditional hyphenation with Pakistan.

In military terms, however, the F-16 offer to Pakistan is sure to trigger another subcontinental arms race. Indian defence strategy is based on air superiority. Pakistan's acquisition of an estimated 80 F-16s alters that balance. With parity in the skies, India will be forced to buy more fighters than it requires, considering that both are nuclear powers and any possible war will involve conventional weaponry and be short, sharp and dirty. For that, India needs to maintain strategic superiority in air combat.

The defence expenditure of India and Pakistan has been on the rise recently, the peace process notwithstanding. Both countries have been on an arms-buying spree, especially after the Kargil War. This year, India will go for arms purchases estimated to cost $15 billion (Rs 65,000 crore). The F-16 will be just one of the contenders in the planned air force acquisition of 126 combat aircraft, with fighters from France, Sweden and Russia also in the fray.

This means a diversion of huge expenditure that is desperately needed to fund development projects. Despite their recent economic upswing, both India and Pakistan are near the bottom of the human development index. The litmus test of just how serious both sides are about a durable peace will be a reduction in arms expenditure, not the reverse. It is time to discard the baggage of history and confine future battlegrounds to the cricket pitch.

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