May seems to be a pivotal month in the political fortunes of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa. Four years ago to the month, she returned to power after a five-year gap. In May 2004, her party was wiped out in all the 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. Last week, the tables turned again with the AIADMK's victory in two crucial assembly by-polls.

PICTURE SPEAK

SWEET VICTORY: Jayalalithaa's star is rising again

At her residence in Poes Garden Jayalalithaa beamed at the assembled journalists, a rare enough sight. "This is a happy augury for 2006," she said, distributing jalebis among the crowd. The results have thrown open possibilities of political realignment in the state, with Jayalalithaa holding all the aces as Tamil Nadu approaches another assembly polls.

If the AIADMK chief has her way, at least one prominent member of the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) could align with her party in the coming polls. The PMK, perched perennially on the wall, is a likely candidate. For S. Ramadoss, PMK's Vanniyar leader, aligning with the AIADMK would mean sacrificing his son Anbumani's cabinet berth in the UPA Government at the Centre, which is supported by the DPA. But the Gummidipoondi and Kanchipuram constituencies, where the by-polls were held, have a predominant Vanniyar population. That would be reason enough for Ramadoss to consider changing loyalties.

Jayalalithaa refuses to say anything on future coalitions. Instead, she prefers to revel in how she beat the mighty opposition. "We were fighting against a seven-party coalition but I never felt lonely. I always knew that the people were with me," she says, hastening to take a dig at the Kanchi muth and the BJP that opposed the arrest of Shankaracharya Jayendra Saraswati in a murder case last year. "In Kanchipuram, though, there was an eighth party against us."

FUTURE WATCH

The PMK, a key constituent of the DPA, might ally with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. Fear of division of the Vanniyar vote might make it switch loyalties. Other than M. Karunanidhi, the DPA's only star campaigner is MDMK leader Vaiko. But the DMK is not keen on projecting him. This could lead to friction within the alliance. The DMK is likely to face more trouble as other DPA constituents become more demanding. There could be a repeat of the Congress' demand for a coalition government in the state in case the DPA comes to power. The launch of actor Vijaykanth's political party sometime in September would add an interesting ingredient to the possible reconfigurations.

Her arch enemy M. Karunanidhi attributed the AIADMK victory to money power, and went a step further, hinting at a furtive understanding between the AIADMK and the Election Commission. The DMK leader, who was all praise for the EC special observer P.J. Rao till the election eve, alleged that the AIADMK had made an arrangement that "you (EC) pretend to beat me and I would pretend to cry and get things done".

The AIADMK's victory is no mean feat, considering it vanquished the DPA, which seemed invincible just a year ago. The primary reason for the AIADMK's victory is its meticulous planning. Twelve ministers were stationed in each constituency to monitor election work. The DMK did press into service Union ministers and former state ministers but they could not match the might of the ruling party machinery.

The campaigns also made a difference. Jayalalithaa campaigned for six days but Karunanidhi confined himself to one meeting in each constituency due to ill health. In his absence, the DPA's only star campaigner was MDMK leader Vaiko. But the DMK, which is not happy with Vaiko's growing popularity, was not keen on projecting him. "This is something the DMK will have to contend with," says political commentator Cho Ramaswamy. "Karunanidhi could face more trouble as the DPA constituents become more demanding."

However, Jayalalithaa's political future is not all rosy. The ruling party registered an impressive show because it could concentrate its resources in just two constituencies. In the assembly polls it would not be possible to focus so intensely on the 234 constituencies simultaneously. The by-election results are no indication that the assembly polls will be equally one-sided, but it definitely means that an interesting battle lies ahead, especially if they are held in May.

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