By-elections seldom raise political temperatures to fever pitch, with local issues determining the voters' choice. But the polls held recently in 16 assembly seats and one parliamentary constituency across six states were different. In Kerala, where assembly polls are due next year, political parties treated the by-polls as a barometer of the popular mood. The high voter turnout and the subsequent rout of the ruling Congress-led UDF is perhaps a signal that the coalition's days are numbered. In Haryana, voters put their faith in the Congress Government of B.S. Hooda, though it may amount to nothing more than the fact that at four months, the Government is too young to start worrying. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress' dreams of gaining a foothold remained just that even as the Samajwadi Party resorted to questionable tactics to win three seats. Karnataka gave a surprise gift to Mulayam Singh's party, which not only opened its account in the south but also inched towards being recognised as a national party. Revolving door governments will continue in Goa as the near sweep by the Congress and its allies notwithstanding, the new regime's majority remains wafer thin. In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP retained its seat despite a high-pitch campaign by the Congress. It is easy to argue that by-polls have no relevance at the national level. In the era of coalition governments, they do.

UTTAR PRADESH
Soft Target, Safe Victory
The Congress suffers a meek defeat at the hands of Mulayam, who is not only inching to a majority in the state but also emerging as head of a national party

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VICTORY MARCH: Mulayam is being accused of using state power to win

If the road to Raisina Hill goes through Uttar Pradesh, the Congress' plans of staging a comeback in the Hindi heartland may have to be deferred a little longer. Consider the facts. In the recently held by-election in Allahabad, the birthplace of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, the Congress candidate could only muster a pitiful 660 votes, while in three other seats all its candidates lost their deposits. The best that a Congress candidate could do was in the Khairagarh constituency in Agra where he polled 11,663 votes-and still managed to come in fifth. Sonia Gandhi's party can, however, draw comfort from the fact that the BJP fared equally bad. The party contested in all the four seats where by-elections were held and lost its deposits in three of them. Consolation came in the form of a second place in Varanasi North.

By-elections are seldom a barometer of popular sentiment. But for Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party (SP), it has been a good week. While the SP won three seats, an ally, the RLD, picked up the fourth. The three wins have brought the SP closer to an absolute majority in the 403-member House. Currently, it has 195 MLAs. In the south, meanwhile, glad tidings poured in when S. Bangarappa, former Karnataka chief minister and a recent convert to the Samajwadi cause, won a by-poll to the Lok Sabha from Shimoga. It was significant because the victory meant that the SP had met the Election Commission criterion of being a national party. As laid down by the commission, it now has elected representatives from three states-Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Karnataka.

The trouble with Mulayam, however, is that nobody is willing to give him credit even when it is due. Not the least his political opponents. Says state BJP spokesperson H.N. Dixit: "Mulayam has perfected the art of rigging elections just as his natural allies, the Marxists, have done in West Bengal." The Congress tried to underplay the import of the crushing defeats, saying that in an unequal fight, only one side could win. The party was alluding to Mulayam's alleged use of state power to ride roughshod over the opposition.

As the dust of the electoral debacle settled, Congressmen were out looking for a fall guy. Most party leaders were pointing fingers at Salman Khurshid, the state Congress chief, and were waiting for word from the high command about his continuation in office. What no one is ready to admit publicly, though a few Congressmen conceded privately, is that the Congress rout took place despite a high-voltage and, sometimes undignified, campaign by Rahul Gandhi against the SP in general and Mulayam in particular across the state. The young MP from Amethi presumably had forebodings of the disaster and carefully kept away from campaigning in the constituencies that went to the polls.

Mulayam, however, sees the verdict as the beginning of the emergence of a strong national alternative-his dream Third Front-a fact he wants the Left to take note of. Since he took over as chief minister in August 2003, by-polls have been held in 18 constituencies spread over four phases. Of these, the SP has won 14, the BJP one and the Congress none. The most sensational victory came in December 2003 when the party won the Harora by-poll after Mayawati (BSP) vacated the seat on being elected to the Rajya Sabha.

Yet, it is Mayawati and her party that could stand between Mulayam and the coveted chair when the state readies for elections in 2007. Though the BSP did not win any seat in the recent by-polls, its candidates came a close second in three seats. If the polls had been free and fair, say party leaders, the party could have won three of the four seats. The argument is not being brushed aside considering that in the Hainsar bazar constituency in Sant Kabir Nagar, the BSP candidate lost by 94 votes despite Mulayam having stationed more than half-a-dozen ministers in the constituency.

With the by-elections pointing to the marginalisation of the two national parties in the state, the next election may well be a direct fight between the SP and the BSP. Mulayam is surviving in office with the support of 37 MLAs who had defected from the BSP. If the courts uphold their right to continue as MLAs, the next election will not come until 2007. But if they are disqualified under the anti-defection law, the polls could be sooner than Mulayam would want them to be.

-By Farzand Ahmed

GOA
Back with a Whisker
As the Congress-NCP alliance wins four of the five seats, the BJP, despite its righteous stance, is left to ponder on its second loss in four months

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MAKING A STATEMENT: Rane (right) takes oath as chief minister

There is a simple rule in Goan politics: no government completes a full term. Party-hopping, a favourite hobby among the state's MLAs, has sent governments with wafer-thin majorities spinning out through a giant revolving door ever since Goa achieved statehood in 1987.

The BJP government which fell in February this year was no exception. A combination of factors, including questionable intervention by Governor S.C. Jamir who imposed President's rule soon after the BJP secured a majority, defecting MLAs and the disqualification of two of its MLAs by the high court, ensured that it lost power. The party hoped for justice in the recent assembly by-elections. It warned people of the Congress game plan to turn Goa into another Bihar. It asked the electorate to punish the defectors for their betrayal. But to no avail. The Congress-NCP alliance claimed power by grabbing four of the five seats and veteran Congress leader Pratapsinh Rane returned to the office as chief minister for a seventh term. The Congress-NCP-led United Legislature Party coalition gained a majority as its tally swelled to 21 seats in the 40-member Assembly.

The result led to a loss of face for the BJP which had tried to project itself as a clean, stable alternative to a corrupt Congress regime. But adding insult to injury was the line-up of victors. All but one of the four defectors who brought down the Manohar Parrikar's BJP government returned to the Assembly. While former deputy chief minister Digambar Kamat won from Madgao, former ministers Pandurang Madkaikar won from Cumbarjua and Antanasio Monserrate, whose dismissal by Parrikar triggered the four resignations, won from Taleigao. Another defector, Francis Pacheco, won from Benaulim on an NCP ticket. The Assembly which had shrunk to 37 seats after three BJP MLAs were disqualified finally thawed from the deep freeze of President's rule.

Though the Rane regime could at best be described as an interim government before fresh elections take place in 2007, the quibbling over the spoils has already begun. While the former BJP MLAs are camping in Delhi to retain their original berths, Pacheco is also keen to secure a lucrative portfolio though he may have to contend with whatever is offered to him.

The BJP and its allies with 18 seats-the party has challenged the disqualification of two MLAs by the Bombay High Court in the Supreme Court-say they have accepted the people's verdict and have decided to sit in the opposition. "We will play the part of a constructive Opposition," says Parrikar. He has few options.

"I don't think anyone is going to rock the boat for two years," says Congress General Secretary Vijay Sardesai. "Besides, the MLAs know that switching sides will result in a Bihar-like situation in Goa."

But as BJP state president Rajendra Arlekar says, "We don't consider this a verdict of the Goan public. Our party organisation is intact and we will strengthen it for the next election."

After failing to win the "people's verdict" in February and losing out again less than four months later, it will have to wait out two more years before it can try again.

-By Sandeep Unnithan

HARYANA
No Contest
The Congress makes a clean sweep, delivers a blow to a teetering INLD

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CAKEWALK: Hooda is on a high

From the outset, polls in Haryana were a no-contest. So predictable was the outcome for the three assembly seats-Killoi, Tosham and Hisar-that bets were placed only on the victory margins for the Congress candidates. As it turned out, they were record margins. While the widows of former cabinet ministers Surender Singh and O.P. Jindal, who were killed in a helicopter crash in March this year, cashed in on the sympathy wave, Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda rode on his newfound stature as the first Jat leader from the Rohtak belt to occupy the top post in the state. Even as the Congress touts the victory as a "resounding endorsement" of its people-friendly policies, the INLD's morale has taken another blow. Given party chief O.P. Chautala's health problems, the INLD is yet to get its act together as the main opposition.

-By Ramesh Vinayak

KERALA
Alarm Bells
The CPI(M) tightens its hold, the UDF hopes for a miracle in coming polls

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LOSS OF FACE: Chandy caught napping

That the CPI(M) would retain the two red fortresses in the northern district of Kannur was certain. What came as a surprise were the record victory margins. At Koothuparambu, the 45,000 margin was unprecedented in an assembly election in Kerala. "The seats were CPI(M) bastions. But we admit failure in our efforts to bring down the margin as compared to the previous time," says Chief Minister Oommen Chandy.

More than the LDF, the results have brought cheer and relief to former chief minister K. Karunakaran who ended his seven-decade association with the Congress to form his own National Congress (Indira). With two resounding defeats in a row, the UDF will need a miracle to win in the civic body elections which are two months away and the assembly polls in May next year.

-By M.G. Radhakrishnan

KARNATAKA
Losing Hand
The dual loss puts the Congress on alert as Gowda, Bangarappa rejoice

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BACK ON TRACK: Bangarappa celebrates his win

When the Dharam Singh Government completed a year in power on May 28, celebrations were put on hold on the advice of the aides. It would be prudent, they said, to wait for the June 2 by-election results in the Shimoga Lok Sabha constituency and the Chamarajpet assembly seat in Bangalore. As it turned out, it was one of the wisest decisions taken by the Government in recent times. The results delivered a resounding slap to the Government as the Congress lost both the seats.

For perennial party-hopper S. Bangarappa, who quit the BJP last year, the victory in his home district Shimoga on the Samajwadi Party ticket was no surprise. But the man who emerged winner without contesting was former prime minister and JD(S) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda. His party had fielded an unknown transport operator from Chamarajpet and managed to win. Victory was sweeter as the constituency was once represented by his bete noire and current Maharashtra Governor S.M. Krishna.

-By Stephen David

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