India is trying to put pressure on the King by asking China not to fish in troubled waters. Delhi does not want Beijing to provide arms to Kathmandu. On a parallel track, India is working on a strategy to unite political parties in Nepal and mount international pressure on the King to restore democracy in the Himalayan kingdom.

Sources say Delhi was aware that the Palace was not happy with Indian Ambasador S.S. Mukherjee's tough stand on providing military aid only after democracy was restored. But definitive signals came in July when Minister of State for External Affairs Rao Inderjit Singh visited Kathmandu to seek Nepal's support for India's bid for a seat in the UN Security Council. Nepal offered to support India's Security Council bid in return for arms supply. But in a one-on-one meeting with the minister, Gyanendra minced no words and expressed his displeasure over Mukherjee's role. He even suggested that Delhi should think of a better option than Mukherjee as its ambassador to Nepal.

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EYE OF THE STORM: (From left) The King, Mukherjee and Manmohan Singh

Though it is the sovereign right of any state to declare a foreign diplomat a persona non grata, the situation has not reached a point where Kathmandu asks Delhi to recall its envoy. It is an extreme step and would be inconceivable in the context of Indo-Nepal ties. In any case, South Block has rubbished Gyanendra's suggestion. "There is a constant propaganda against our ambassador but he is acting in India's best interests and we haven't received any formal request for his recall," a South Block source told India Today.

Mukherjee's tough stance and his statements that the King was making no genuine effort to bring back democracy has irked the Palace no end. Sources say he advised Delhi that India should strengthen political parties in Nepal and isolate Gyanendra by increasing international pressure for the restoration of the democratic process.

The envoy has only articulated the assessment of the Foreign Office that the situation in Nepal is going from bad to worse. Though Gyanendra promised to improve the security situation and restore democracy, he has not delivered on either of the promises. However, Mukherjee, when contacted in Kathmandu, didn't want to comment on Nepal gunning for him and on accusations that he had been hobnobbing with the Maoists there.

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MASS MOVEMENT: A pro-democracy demonstration in Kathmandu

India's Nepal policy has undergone a significant shift in the past six months. While it had earlier maintained that constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy were the best bets for the Himalayan kingdom, it is now openly talking about an alternative to the King. However, the opinion is divided. Some want Nepalese political parties to pursue the road to a republic where the King is completely isolated. Others want to engage with the King and the Royal Nepal Army (RNA). Their reasoning is that that if India can do business with President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, who also seized power by dismissing a democratically elected government, then Gyanendra has done nothing different.

Adding fuel to the fire is an amendment to the constitution of the Nepali Congress. The party has added "inclusive democracy, supremacy of Parliament and democratic socialism" as its goals while making no mention of constitutional monarchy. Palace backers in Nepal maintain that this has been done at India's behest because shortly after the resolution was passed on August 31, the Maoists announced a three-month unilateral truce. This was followed by a concerted campaign by political parties, in which seven prominent groups wrote to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan stating that the government led by the King was not legitimate. The campaign led to Gyanendra cancelling his trip to attend the UN General Assembly session.

On his part, the King wants to demonstrate that he can do without India. Sources reveal that China recently cleared a deal worth Rs 100 crore to supply arms and ammunition to Nepal. The deal was reportedly clinched during the visit of Nepal's Foreign Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey to Beijing recently. "Our first source for arms was India. If they were not available from India then we have to look towards other countries," remarked a Nepalese diplomatic source.

Compounding Delhi's worries are intelligence reports indicating that some officials close to the Palace want to ignite anti-India passions. The controversy about the RNA declaring defective the INSAS rifle, which is being used by Nepalese troops, is part of a larger conspiracy to malign India. "Our army has been using the INSAS rifles and found nothing wrong in them. It was just aimed at discrediting India," explains an Indian official. The King too has hardened his stance. Last week, three visiting Indian politicians were prevented from meeting deposed prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.

INDIA'S WORRIES

CHINA CARD: China is cosying up to Gyanendra, which could compromise India's strategic foothold in the Himalayan kingdom. MIGRANTS: India has a 1,880 km border with Nepal. Some one million Nepalese have moved to India because of violence and instability. ANTI-INDIA SENTIMENTS: Some officials close to the Palace are whipping up anti-India sentiments. Has even suggested change of envoy, which could have serious bilateral ramifications.

The worsening economic situation in Nepal has already triggered a fresh wave of migration into India, forcing the UPA Government to review its border policy. While the 1,880-km long Indo-Nepal border is being patrolled extensively, the Home Ministry is working on a strategy for a more regulated border regime. "We will have to move away from having an open border given the security ramifications. We plan to have border check posts and regulate the entry of Nepalese nationals," a senior official says.

Another worry for India is the role of Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI in this whole game. Islamabad is trying to capitalise on the crisis by offering arms to Nepal. Concerns have also grown about the presence of known India baiters like Salim Mian Ansari, who has been given a berth in the cabinet by Gyanendra.

While India debates its Nepal policy, it will have to factor in the new geopolitical dimension-that of China trying to increase its influence in Nepal affairs. India's concerted campaign against the King's royal coup and the western nations' growing disenchantment with Kathmandu over human rights concerns has prompted China to quietly extend support to the King and offer him the much needed arms supply. The situation is delicately balanced and India will have to exercise some tough options to checkmate the King.

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