 | | PICTURE SPEAK | |  | | FRONT RUNNER: The Lalu charisma endures | | Everybody loves a good though not necessarily fair election. But when there are two in quick succession it tends to become a bit of a yawn. Not in Bihar though. The assembly elections held seven months ago returned a hung Assembly. A new incumbent at the Patna Raj Bhavan and endless pleas to the Supreme Court failed to break the stalemate. Now, even as the apex court deliberates on a plea charging Governor Buta Singh with dissolving the Assembly to prevent the NDA from staking claim to form the government, election strategies are unfolding in Bihar. Alliances have been put in place for a multi-cornered contest and at the moment it appears once again that there will be no clear winner. The front runner, of course, is the four-party alliance led by Lalu Prasad Yadav who is being credited with the moves that led to the dissolution of the Assembly and the second elections. The main challenger is the NDA consisting of the BJP and the JD(U) of Nitish Kumar. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP leads a third alliance that consists of the CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP, of which the last two have a negligible presence in the state. And completing the picture is the influential CPI(ML). In his inimitable style, Lalu called the UPA alliance consisting of the RJD, Congress, NCP and CPI(M) as "fool-proof" and "perfect". The others, he said, were merely "shops" that would down their shutters once the elections were over. | | PICTURE SPEAK | |  | | SETTLING SCORES: Kumar (second from right) feels he will get justice this time | | Kumar, who believes he was cheated out of chief ministership in February, asserts that people are anxious for a change and would not only throw Lalu out forever but also marginalise Paswan for sabotaging the February poll verdict that was clearly against the RJD-Congress combine. Paswan's 29 MLAs held the key to government formation after February's hung verdict, but the Union minister did not wish to take sides between the RJD and the NDA and insisted he would support any party that put up a Muslim as chief minister. There are other fringe players-the CPI(ML), sp and BSP-all determined to defeat the existing formations. The SP and BSP would like to carry over their tussle in Uttar Pradesh to Bihar by weaning away the secular votes. | | INTERVIEW | LALU YADAV | | | "It is RJD-UPA vs the rest"
Union Railways Minister Lalu Yadav spoke to Senior Editor Farzand Ahmed about his poll alliance and how he sees the contest this time. Excerpts: Q. Q. What were the criteria for giving tickets?
A. Winnability is the sole criterion and not showing strength through demonstrations. Q. Is there a craze for RJD tickets?
A. Our ticket guarantees victory but the main reason is the MLA Development Fund. But they don't realise that this fund is also the main cause for defeat as people think this is the MLA's personal money and demand a share. Refusal breeds anger and results in defeat. Q. How about alliances this time?
A. Only our alliance is smooth and perfect. The rest are day dreaming. There is no political front except ours. Q. How do you see the fight this time?
A. The RJD-UPA vs the rest. The NDA is a group of communal and feudal forces which have been trying to wipe out Lalu. What's new? Despite their campaign we had emerged the single largest party last time. | | Interestingly Lalu, Kumar and Paswan are products of the same socio-political movement, represent the same social class, are in the same age group and address the same constituency of Backwards, Muslims and Dalits. And all three never skip a chance to go for each other's jugular. The trio ruled Bihar together before going their separate ways. The alliances they have made are a bit different from the past and the RJD-led front has an edge over the others. Here's an account of where the three main alliances stand this time: | DIFFERENT BEATS
Lip Service | | | | A music troupe owner had taught his parrot to say 'Vote for Lalu' in Hindi. Now the musician, whom Lalu had made the head of RJD's cultural wing, is with Kumar and the parrot is trying hard to cope. | | RJD + congress + NCP + CPI(M): Stating that he would not repeat the "mistakes of the past", Lalu conducted the seat-sharing exercise smoothly. Unlike the February polls when he allotted just 11 sitting seats to the Congress, this time he gave 51 seats to the party whose base has shrunk to 5 per cent of the votes compared to the RJD's 25 per cent. It was out of anger that the Congress also had a parallel tie-up last time with Paswan who was campaigning against the Lalu-led alliance. The result: the Congress managed just 10 seats. Lalu had allotted only three seats to the NCP last time (though it contested 31 and won three). This time Lalu agreed to allot the party eight seats. The CPI(M), a friend-in-need with whose support Lalu was able to bully the Centre to dissolve the Assembly in a bid to stop Kumar from forming the government, got nine seats though it had contested 12 in February. | | | | | Just like last time, it will be a multi-cornered contest for the 243-seat Bihar Assembly | | UPA: RJD 175 + Congress 51 + NCP 9 + CPI(M) 8
PLAYING SAFE: Lalu ignored lobbying by RJD ticket seekers and was more liberal towards allies. | | NDA: BJP 102 + JD(U) 141
DIVIDED WE STAND: The two partners are beset with infighting and fought with each other over seats. | | THIRD FRONT: LJP 203 + CPI 35 +FB + RSP 5 | | THE SPOILER: Paswan ignored all pleas of Lalu and the Congress to stay within the UPA fold. | | THE FRINGE PLAYERS. | | SP: Contested 142 seats last time and won 4. Would try to wean away the secular votes. | | BSP: Fielded candidates in 238 seats last time and won 2. Will also target the secular vote. | | CPI(ML): Will contest 70-80 seats on its own. Hopes the SP will join hands with it. | | Lalu, for the first time, overruled his controversial brothers-in-law in the matter of allotment of tickets and did not listen to any pairvi (lobbying). In the February polls despite fierce campaigning against him by foes in the guise of friends, his party had won 75 seats and came second in 95. So this time he will focus only on 175 seats compared to 215 last time. But Lalu is having nightmares because his controversial brother-in-law Subhash Yadav has declared that he would campaign against some of Lalu's most trusted leaders like Shivanand Tiwary, Shakil Ahmad Khan and Jagdanand Singh. The NDA (JD[U] + BJP): The alliance looks smooth and perfect but is divided from within. The BJP is angry over 13 seats that the JD(U) has allotted to defectors from the LJP, including dons, who had come out in support of Kumar after the last poll. The JD(U) is contesting 141 seats this time against 138 in the last election. The BJP is contesting 102 seats against 104 last time. While the JD(U) is divided between the Kumar and George Fernandes camps, a section of BJP leaders have formed the BJP Bachao Morcha (Save BJP Front) not only to oppose the dominance of certain castes in the party but also as a protest against tickets given to relatives of leaders like C.P. Thakur, Munni Lal Ram, Hukumdeo Narain Yadav and Kameshwar Chaupal. | HOP, SKIP, JUMP
End of jehad | | | | Meraj Khalid Noor, the Osama bin Laden lookalike who was with the LJP last time, has ended his jehad against Lalu, the "Bihari Bush", and joined the RJD. The hop artist began with the Congress. | | Third front (LJP + CPI +FB +RSP): Paswan has made his intentions clear by saying that he will campaign only against the RJD and NDA and spare the Congress, CPI(M) and NCP. Though he continues to be a crowd-puller he and the CPI are being accused by the CPI(ML) of preferring their association with the UPA to the creation of a grand alliance of Left and "secular" forces to take on both the RJD-Congress combine and the NDA. The CPI is not sharing the platform with the CPI(ML) also because the latter eroded its rural base in Bihar. Lalu too is angry with the state unit of the CPI for ditching him and siding with the LJP. But the CPI has reason to dump Lalu and prefer Paswan. CPI General Secretary A.B. Bardhan accuses Lalu of never supporting any alliance and of making unfair offers. Besides, the party accuses the RJD of misgovernance and says its secular tag by itself means nothing. In the complex alignment of forces in this election the one pattern that emerges is that as ever, it would be a Lalu vs the Rest fight.
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