PICTURE SPEAK

TOUGH CHOICE: Manmohan and Ahmadinejad (above)

The issue of the Iran vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board meeting in Vienna continues to hang like a Damocles' sword over the UPA regime. It is a potential political minefield for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who faces a tough choice between diplomatic pragmatism-needed to demonstrate that India will act as a responsible nuclear power-and giving in to compulsions of running a coalition government. The alliance is threatened by the left parties, which have been relentlessly baying for the Government's blood since the earlier vote against Iran in September.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had lobbied with India prior to the vote in September. This time the Iranians are keeping everyone guessing. As hectic diplomacy continues in Vienna and New York to find a diplomatic solution ahead of the IAEA meeting on November 24, Delhi is working on a strategy to build consensus. For India, a crucial element will be to see that a proposal being mooted by Russia, and supported by the EU-3-comprising Germany, France and the UK-seeking Iran to continue conversion for peaceful use of nuclear energy goes through. India's support for the resolution, despite some reservations, is based on the premise that the intervening period will be used to address all outstanding issues. India favours keeping the door open for dialogue and avoiding confrontation. The Russian proposal seeks to address Iran's main demand that it be allowed the right to conversion. It entails using enrichment facilities in Russia through a joint venture with Iran. All efforts are directed at getting Iran on board the proposal. If that happens, a face-off will be averted. "We are waiting for the response. Intensive discussions are being held, preliminary soundings have been made and the dg of IAEA is likely to go to Russia for discussions," a diplomatic source told India Today. The US too seems to be inclined to give diplomacy a chance. "We are concerned about Iran ... but our belief is that Iran should come to the negotiation table," said US Ambassador to India, David C. Mulford.

The September vote had stirred a political hornet's nest when India voted along with the US and the EU against Iran. The Left and the Opposition accused the Government of giving in to US pressure. Manmohan had personally cleared the decision to vote with the US and the EU-3 to refer Iran to the Security Council on the suspicion of pursuing a nuclear programme. Officials, however, insist that there was no change in India's stand and they had adopted a realistic posture to gain more time for diplomacy. "We don't want any confrontation as instability in the region will create problems for us. We believe that a diplomatic solution will be found," a senior mea official said. South Block sources say that India's Iran vote was dictated by national interest.

INDIA'S OPTIONS

THE STRATEGY Will prefer that a vote does not take place. This could lead to differences with the Left, which is unlikely to change its position. India does not want another nuclear power in its neighbourhood and wants to be seen as a responsible nuclear power. THE PROBLEMS Left parties mounting pressure on the Government to change its stand on the Iran vote, calling it a sellout to the US. A compromise may weaken India's case for recognition as a nuclear power, can pose problems for the Indo-US deal.

The Government may not admit it openly, but its decision was influenced also by the US offer to let India into the nuclear-haves club, which it has always aspired to. Apart from that, it is not in India's interest to have another nuclear state in its neighbourhood in violation of Tehran's international commitment under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Now, the economist in Manmohan is also keen to see a diplomatic resolution. The presence of more than four million Indians in the Gulf could have a serious impact on the Indian economy if the Iran nuclear issue plunges the region into another war at some stage. Even as quiet but frenetic diplomacy continues, Tehran is keeping its cards close to its chest. While Delhi has engaged with Tehran through diplomatic channels, it first proposed the visit of its Deputy Foreign Minister Mehdi Safari and then postponed it. "We are talking to the Iranians, but so far we haven't heard of a firm proposal," said an official. Sources believe that it may be because Iran is still unsure about its strategy, even as a section in Tehran is in favour of going along with the Russian formula and keeping the matter within the IAEA. This view was also favoured by the NAM troika of Malaysia, South Africa and Cuba, which recently held discussions in Tehran. On the other hand, the hawks in Iran want to turn the nuclear stand-off into an issue of national prestige.

PICTURE SPEAK

SEEKING CONSENSUS: Members of the Left-led forum at a seminar

Even as diplomatic efforts are on to douse the fire, politically the issue can trigger friendly fire in the coming Parliament session, as the left parties-badly needing a political issue-have gone full steam on the Iran vote. The Left-led forum has joined hands with the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (Secular). It has gone on a spree organising seminars across Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, singing a pro-Iran chorus.

According to its members, Iran is a "self-respecting" country which had been singled out by the US at the IAEA meeting in Vienna on September 24. The UPA Government's "mistake" was to break away from the path of non-alignment and vote against Iran, they say. The left parties have warned the Centre that when it "gets" another opportunity on November 24 to "redeem" its position, it should use it.

The Left is treating the issue as a litmus test of the Government. Both Prakash Karat and A.B. Bardhan-general secretaries of the CPI(M) and CPI-have taken the issue as critical in light of their support to the UPA. "The Government will have to pay a price if it ignores our demand. If it votes against Tehran even next week, then the consequence may be severe," Bardhan said. Karat was more tactful. "If the Government takes a stand against Iran at the next IAEA meeting, the Left will raise the matter in Parliament," he said.

At the UPA-Left Coordination Committee meeting after the panel resumed last month, leaders of the left parties presented a paper to Manmohan and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi on what should India's position be on the issue. The document says: "Senior US public figures have gloated over the Indian vote against Iran as an abject example. Conceivably, one American objective has been fulfilled on the world stage. The US triumphalism has been extremely damaging to India's global standing." The BJP has also asked the Government to take the Opposition into confidence.

The bigger challenge for the Government is to handle the Iran issue in a calibrated manner. Moreover, it should seek to widen the debate by bringing in the issue of the illegal network of Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan before the IAEA. While the Left treats the issue as a litmus test for the UPA alliance, the Government will have to ensure that political expediency does not prevail over diplomatic realism.

-with Satarupa Bhattacharjya

Index