PICTURE SPEAK

MAN OF THE MOMENT: President Bush

After 50 years of indifference, suspicion and even ridicule, both sides are setting aside yesterday's battles and focussing on a basket of new issues that would lockstep the two countries into a strategic and economic partnership that would redefine not just sub-regional politics, but also the balance of power in Asia and even global affairs. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told India Today: "President Bush seems extremely bullish about America's relations with India." That seemed apparent when Bush told a packed gathering of the Asia Society in Washington DC on February 22: "India is a natural partner and we have shared common interests. I look forward to discussing ways to advance our strategic partnership when I visit India."

ON THE PREZ TRAIL

Wednesday, March 1 Arrives in Delhi late in the evening. Thursday, March 2 Official visit begins with ceremonial reception at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Rashtrapati Bhavan. Meets President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. Summit with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at Hyderabad House. Issues joint declaration and addresses joint press conference with the PM. Manmohan hosts lunch in his honour. Meets Congress president Sonia Gandhi. Call on by leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani. Visits Humayun's tomb. President Kalam's banquet at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Friday, March 3 Leaves for Hyderabad. Visits Indian School of Business, Agricultural University and possibly a knowledge centre in the city. Visits a district to see rural development initiatives. Returns to Delhi in the evening. Addresses captains of industry at a public meet. Saturday, March 4 Leaves for Islamabad. (Tentative programme)

When US Air Force One carrying the President and First Lady Laura Bush touches down on the evening of March 1, his packed schedule will enunciate the full scope of the engagement between the two countries. While the pomp and circumstance would be on display, the visit is expected to be businesslike, with the President wanting to achieve as much as possible in the two days he is in town. "There are unlikely to be adverbs and adjectives but just plain let's get on with it," an Indian official said.

US PRESIDENTIAL VISITS     JUST FIVE AMERICAN HEADS OF STATE HAVE COME TO INDIA IN 59 YEARS

DECEMBER 1959 DWIGHT EISENHOWER: It was the first visit by a US President and America's discovery of India. When Eisenhower reached Delhi, Jawaharlal Nehru rolled out a red carpet, impressing him with Indian hospitality. JULY 1969 RICHARD NIXON: The brief visit in the middle of the cold war was riddled with false starts and mistrust. Both Indira Gandhi and Nixon were cold to each other, and the Indo-US ties touched an all-time low. JANUARY 1978 JIMMY CARTER: Even special gestures, like renaming a village in Haryana Carterpuri, didn't thaw the frosty relationship that marked the visit. Carter tried an iron fist on the nuclear issue but failed. MARCH 2000 BILL CLINTON: Shadowed by the 1998 nuclear tests that saw Delhi being hounded by the US, the visit helped ease relations. They inked a vision statement that marked US' recognition of India as a global player.

On March 2, after the ceremonial welcome at Rashtrapati Bhavan, Bush is likely to pay homage at Rajghat before engaging in a summit with Manmohan that would be followed by a sumptuous lunch. The best case scenario is the two leaders inking the nuclear deal that will endorse India's plan to separate its military and civilian nuclear reactors and will contain an explicit commitment from Bush to get the House of Congress to amend the law and allow supply of civilian nuke technology to India. Bush is also expected to announce a major energy initiative that would focus on clean coal and hydrogen fuel technology.

In the afternoon, he is scheduled to meet leaders across the political spectrum. Bush is also expected to announce a major agricultural knowledge initiative between India and the US that seeks to usher in "a second Green Revolution". It hopes to recapture the co-operation between the two nations that brought the Green Revolution in the '60s and self-sufficiency in food grains for India, but in "21st century style".

GUEST COLUMN: ROBERT BLACKWILL

Forging Fresh Bonds Shared agendas will cement ties between India and the US and push it to higher standards   PICTURE SPEAK Robert Blackwill US EXPORTS TO INDIA GREW BY 25 PER CENT IN 2004 AND ARE NO LONGER “FLAT AS A CHAPATTI”. THE US IS ALSO THE LARGEST CUMULATIVE INVESTOR IN INDIA. As President George W. Bush prepares to visit India and intense bilateral discussions continue on the implementation of the historic July 18 civil nuclear agreement, let us examine from an American perspective the farther horizon of US-India relations. Imagine a matrix, with America's most important national security concerns along one side, and the world's major countries along the other. Think first of the vital national interests of the US: prosecuting the global war on terror and reducing the staying power and effectiveness of the jehadi killers; preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including to terrorist groups; dealing with the rise of Chinese power; ensuring reliable supply of energy from the Persian Gulf; and, keeping the global economy on track. Now, consider the key countries of the world. Which of them share with the US these vital national interests and the willingness for their own reasons to do something about the challenges posed over the extended future? India may lead the list in the long haul. With respect to terrorism, India in the past 15 years lost more people than any other nation in the world. Though cross-border terrorism has now receded somewhat in Kashmir, India remains an abiding target for terrorists and their supporters. New Delhi will need no urging from Washington to be with the US in word and deed to the end of the global war on Islamic extremism. At the same time, we need to discuss what is the right balance to counter terrorism between covert action and military activities on the one hand, and the competition of ideas on the other. These terrorist outrages will not continue indefinitely. We know this from The Ramayana, and many other holy books. Good does triumph over evil, although it sometimes takes more time than we would like. US-India cooperation will bring that moment closer. Weapons of mass destruction are a pressing shared danger as well. Picture this: a group of terrorists has obtained a nuclear weapon and are debating where to detonate it. The number one target would almost certainly be in the US. But what would be the second most likely destination? New Delhi and Mumbai will remain pre-eminent potential WMD targets for these mass murderers because of the hateful place India occupies in jehadi ideology. This, too, will surely put India and the US together. In addition, India is properly attentive to the rise of Chinese power. Let me make clear that this will not lead to joint US-India containment of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Worrying that this could be self-fulfilling, no Indian politician of any consequence supports such a policy. But it does mean that behind New Delhi's elevated rhetoric regarding relations between India and China, Indians understand that Asia is being fundamentally changed by the weight of PRC economic power and diplomatic skill. Which US ally, except for Japan, thinks about China in such a prudent and strategic way? As for the protection of energy security, both the US and India are hugely dependent on sources from the Persian Gulf for their energy needs. About a quarter of the crude oil imported by the US is from the Middle East. India, meanwhile, imports nearly 75 per cent of its crude oil, much of which also comes from that region. Securing this energy at reasonable prices is at the top of both nations' agenda. And then, there is world economy. US-India trade figures are currently small. But India today has a larger middle class than the combined population of France, Germany and Britain. And that middle class is rapidly increasing. The US is India's largest trading partner. US exports to India grew by 25 per cent in 2004 and are no longer, as I used to say while US ambassador to India, "flat as a chapatti". The US is also the largest cumulative investor in India, in both foreign direct and portfolio investment. More than 50 per cent of America's Fortune 500 companies now outsource some of their information technology needs from Indian companies. Both India and the US need high and sustained rates of economic growth in order to reach their domestic goals and promote vital national interests, so the prospects of rapid expansion of US-India trade are exceedingly bright. Not only do these five vital national interests coincide, but we share common democratic values as well. The policies of the US and India are built on the same solid moral foundation. This has now become an even more central common element, given the march of freedom across the Greater Middle East. In sum, I cannot think of another nation with which the US shares in such a comprehensive way, and with the same intensity, these vital national interests and democratic principles, and the enduring determination to promote and defend them. This does not mean that Washington and New Delhi will always agree on specific policies or tactics. But US-India collaboration should reach an ever higher standard over the years. If we follow Krishna's wise words, "Be thou of even mind", we will view President Bush's upcoming visit to India in this uplifting strategic framework. US ambassador to India during 2001-03, Blackwill is president of Barbour Griffith & Rogers International, a Republican lobbying and consulting firm in Washington DC, and counsellor to the Council on Foreign Relations.

It would involve scaling up research in Indian agriculture universities by supporting collaborative ventures with American research centres. The focus would be on helping Indian farmers prosper by ensuring the latest knowhow from agricultural research and also setting up infrastructure to help them boost yields, reduce wastage of agricultural produce, bring in quality and standardisation, and incorporate the latest in packaging.

WHAT TO EXPECT

A declaration on civilian nuclear deal is at a critical stage. US under-secretary Nick Burns is in Delhi to thrash out the final deal. Indo-US initiative on energy that will entail an US invitation for India to join a clean coal initiative and cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector. The US is likely to upgrade its diplomatic mission in Delhi and announce relocation of 13 diplomatic positions to India. Reigniting the Green Revolution, Indo-US agricultural initiative to focus on collaborative programmes and improving agricultural research. Half a dozen agreements on space cooperation, trade, science and technology, and establishment of a joint study group to explore the possibility of a preferential trading arrangement.

The same night, President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam will host Bush and Laura at an elaborate banquet that will have on its menu some of the US President's favourite Indian dishes. On March 3, Bush departs for Hyderabad to engage in a range of activities that include visiting a hi-tech centre, a life science laboratory and kicking off an HIV-AIDS initiative. Hyderabad was chosen over Bangalore because, as a US official explained, the city has come to represent more than just hi-tech. As an aide joked: "The President doesn't want to be Bangalored-especially since call centres had become an election issue."

BUSH BIO

Born on July 6, 1946, in New Haven, Connecticut. A Yale graduate with an MBA from Harvard Business School. Met wife Laura at a barbeque party in Texas-it was love at first sight. Father of twin daughters, Jenna and Barbara. Elected 43rd US President in 2001 and re-elected in 2005. Is in bed by 10 pm. Loathes social life within the Beltway. His favourite hobby is cross-country cycling and jogging. A born again Christian, gave up alcohol. His favourite toast at official dinners is orange juice. Values loyalty immensely. Particular about taking annual holidays. Prefers the ranch in Crawford, Texas to the starchy environment of the White House.

Hyderabad has a diverse Muslim population that Bush would like to be seen engaging with and, more than Bangalore, it has also become the hub of bio-tech and life sciences research. US investors see huge potential in India's bio-tech industry and Bush hopes to highlight that when he visits some of the laboratories. He may also decide to visit an agricultural research establishment in Hyderabad.

The President then returns to Delhi in the afternoon and holds what is considered the gala event of the visit. Given the mounting criticism from the Left parties over his visit and the protest rallies being planned, Bush's aides decided against him addressing a joint sitting of Parliament as President Bill Clinton had done in March 2000. Instead, at a high-powered function on the evening of March 3, Bush is likely to address Indian political leaders, corporate honchos and opinion makers. The Indo-US CEO Forum of top businessmen will unfurl plans to enhance the scope of economic relations between the two countries. After years of stagnation, trade between the two countries has registered a steep growth.

If the nuke deal doesn't go through during this visit, Bush and Manmohan plan to make economic ties the cornerstone of bilateral relationship. Says Francine Frankel, founding director, Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania, "The plan appears to be to showcase not just trade initiatives but also other agreements on R&D, cybercrime, terrorism and defence, and bill the visit as a celebration of the natural ties coming into being. So, even if the nuke puzzle fails to be resolved, the visit could still be termed a success."

For India, that had seen a 22-year drought of US presidential visitors before Clinton made his historic trek in 2000, the visit by another American head of state within six years is a measure of just how far down the road the two countries have travelled together in recent times. When Clinton came calling, relations between the two countries had touched a nadir after India's 1998 nuclear tests. America had imposed stern sanctions and the air was chillier than a Washington winter. Clinton's visit was meant to signal the return of spring in relations. Clinton was all style and charmed India. But in retrospect, very little of substance emerged. The contentious nuclear issue remained a giant wall that the Clinton presidency wasn't willing to pull down or scale over.

Nor was Bush in the first term of his Presidency, although his close aides had advocated making India the countervailing force against China in Asia. Sunil Khilnani, professor and director of the South Asia Studies Program, School of International Advanced Studies at the John Hopkins University, says, "Nobody will state it so bluntly, but there are a lot of policy wonks in the administration who see India as a bulwark against China in the long term."

Preoccupied with 9/11, the war in Afghanistan and then in Iraq, Bush remained appreciative of India's support in curbing global terror. But the US State Department under Colin Powell, who was more inclined towards Pakistan, moved with glacial pace on the trinity of contentious issues-nuclear, hi-tech and space. But in Bush's second term, with Condoleeza Rice as the new US secretary of state, the rpm of negotiations moved into overdrive. On her first visit in March last year, Rice told India Today, "The US is committed to helping India become a major power in the 21st century."

Bush had homed in on energy shortage as a major global concern. When oil prices threatened to hit the roof, Bush talked only on energy security when he met Manmohan for the first time on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2004. He saw India and China as major consumers of oil and, therefore, competitors to a scarce resource and told Manmohan: "We need to help you with nuke energy." Days before his summit with Manmohan in July last year, Bush got Rice to put together a high-power group to work out a way of bringing India into the international nuclear fold so that it could buy civilian nuclear reactors from the US and other countries, as well as much-needed nuclear fuel. Neither side was sure whether they would be able to deliver on the expectations that had built up in the preceding weeks. It was only a midnight manoeuver initiated by Rice and complemented by the then foreign minister, K. Natwar Singh, that had paved the way for the breakthrough agreement on July 18.

The deal demonstrated Bush's commitment to radically transform relations between the two countries by removing the nuclear irritant that had bedevilled relations for decades. It was an audacious coup that was typical of Bush. Even old friends like Russia and, more recently, France have never dared go so far. French President Jacques Chirac had last week asserted that the US nuclear deal had to go through if India and France had to fructify the recently announced framework nuclear agreement between the two countries.

There is, however, a sense of deja vu. Days before the visit, doubts remained as to whether the two sides would be able to work out "the terms of nuclear endearment", as Naresh Chandra, former Indian ambassador to the US put it. Both leaders faced tough resistance from determined groups in their own countries.

In India, the nuclear maharajas, as the Department of Atomic Energy scientists are called, who had gained a measure of self-reliance despite the technology denial regime, openly balked at the scope of the demands being made by American negotiators. In the US, Bush came under strong criticism from the Ayatollahs of non-proliferation who believed the President was dismantling the carefully constructed nuclear restraint regime by making an exception for India and, therefore, committing "nuclear harakiri".

Meanwhile, in sotto voce, officials in the Bush administration are hoping that the President's visit to India will generate the right kind of momentum to first arrest and then ratchet up his popularity ratings that have taken a beating in the aftermath of the Iraq war. It is, therefore, not surprising that the US administration is demonstrating that extra keenness to clinch the nuclear deal and win favour with its Indian counterparts. Says a senior US policy wonk: "In the short term, most of his foreign policy initiatives will go awry. And I think, he would like to leave with one major foreign policy achievement-that he delivered India to the US, like Nixon did with China in the 1970s."

Nicholas Burns, the US under-secretary of state and a key interlocutor, flew down from Washington on February 22 in a last ditch effort to iron out differences. Before he arrived, he asserted in an interview to Newsweek: "We are 90 per cent of the way over there. We have just 10 per cent to go."

Indian officials, though, were not so optimistic: "There are still plenty of loose ends to tie up and we are not sure if this can be done before the President arrives." Bush in his speech at the Asia Society maintained a tough posture, stating: "We need a credible and defensible plan from India (of separation between civilian and nuclear facilities)." Hinting that the two sides may not be able to resolve differences before he arrived in India, Bush said, "We have to be patient, ambitious and practical." C.N.R. Rao, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee to the Prime Minister and an Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) member, pointed out: "Even as the marriage is being negotiated, the divorce clause is being kept."

Experts are convinced that if the nuke deal does not come through it would be, in the words of K.S. Bajpai, a former Indian ambassador to the US, "a major dampener. It would signal triumph for the nuclear diehards in India and the NPT Ayatollahs in the US. The momentum will go out of Indo-US relations and it will take a long time to regain it". The hour of reckoning is nigh.