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INDIA TODAY
    CURRENT ISSUE MARCH 13, 2006
 
   INDO-US RELATIONS: THE BUSH VISIT
 
The Giant Leap

Signing of the nuclear deal between India and the US marks a turning point in bilateral ties and heralds a new era of opportunity on a range of issues. The inside story on how the deal was struck despite stiff resistance. Plus an analysis of the gains for India and the hurdles ahead.
 
  PICTURE SPEAK
ON TERRA FIRMA: Bush and Manmohan head to announce the nuclear deal in Hyderabad House
Right from the moment he stepped off Air Force One at Delhi airport, US President George W. Bush made it clear that he wanted his maiden visit to be a resounding success. With even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh breaking protocol to personally receive him and First Lady Laura Bush, the US President exuded an endearing warmth and an almost rustic simplicity that bowled over his hosts. He startled and charmed Manmohan by giving him a friendly Texan hug. When M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser and a key negotiator of the Indo-US nuke deal, was introduced to him, the US President told him with a smile: "Hope you can close the deal." Kapil Sibal, Union Minister of Science and Technology and Bush's minister-in-waiting for the trip, observed: "He has the great ability to put everyone instantly at ease," adding: "He knows what he wants and how to get it."

That was apparent on Thursday morning when Bush and Manmohan sat down for a one-on-one without even note-takers at Hyderabad House, the venue of the summit. Aides from both countries had worked through the night to find a way to seal the pathbreaking nuclear deal but there were still some sticky points. As a key negotiator said before he went in for the summit: "There are differences that still have to be solved." But instead of getting involved, Bush just signalled his officials away and, putting his arm around Manmohan, said: "Dr Singh and I are not going to discuss the nuclear deal. We are going to talk about the world. You discuss it and let us know whether you have reached an agreement. If you don't, we can always do it later."

  PICTURE SPEAK
DONE DEAL: Rice greets Shyam Saran
The two leaders then sat down for a broad sweep of the state of the world, with Bush explaining his views on issues like Iran, Iraq, South Asia and trade negotiations, and Manmohan outlining the Indian perspective. After an hour, they summoned the senior Union ministers who were waiting in the next room, including Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and Commerce Minister Kamal Nath. Bush began, by way of introduction, saying: "Dr Singh and I were discussing a much larger relationship that India and the US enjoy which will not be impacted even if we don't reach an agreement." At which point, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who had just entered, interrupted him saying: "Mr President, we have ironed out our differences. We have a deal."

The air turned electric after that as both sides knew "that history had been made", as Manmohan would say later. They each knew that the sealing of the deal signalled a giant leap in relations between India and the US, bedevilled by the vexatious nuclear issue for over three decades.

  PICTURE SPEAK
ALL EYES ON HIM: Bush reviews the guard of honour in Rashtrapati Bhawan
For the US President, there are still several major hurdles to be crossed, including persuading the US Congress to make suitable amendments in the law in order to lift sanctions against India and allow America to sell civilian nuclear technology. Given his dipping popularity ratings among the US public, Bush knows that the task of getting the Congress on board is not going to be easy but, as he has demonstrated right through his Presidency, he is not afraid of going against conventional wisdom. As he said: "Some people just do not want to change. But by signing the deal, we are sending a message that there is a different world and we have to think of different ways of doing things to meet the challenges."

1ST DAY, 1ST TAKE

  PICTURE SPEAK
MELTING BORDERS: Laura hugs children at Prayas
It took her just two takes to get the perfect shot. Then again, it's a script she has learnt to perfection.

In Delhi, US First Lady Laura Bush shot a scene for a pre-school educational TV show, Galli Galli Sim Sim, an adapted version of the animated Sesame Street. Sitting under a banyan tree, she taught the little muppet, Chamki, how to count till five. Together with co-star social activist Nafisa Ali she hit upon a simple method to teach Chamki: by merely counting the number of times the muppet giggled!

Later, Bush visited Prayas, a shelter home where she was quizzed by teenage girls on child abuse and gender inequality. Dressed in a grey pin-striped suit, she hugged both fictional characters and real. At a photo-op after the shoot when Ali yelled out to a colleague to tuck his "tummy in", the US first lady immediately responded "Okay!" In her carefully choreographed world, such orders are perhaps not unusual.

In the days ahead, Manmohan, too, will have to convince his sceptical allies that the nuclear deal was in the best interest of the nation and quell the BJP's fears about India's strategic capability being capped. That he, too, faces a stiff task was evident from the massive outburst of anti-Bush rallies staged by the Left parties. While Manmohan was holding parleys with the US President, close to 100 Parliamentarians from the Left parties, the Samajwadi Party, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Indian National Lok Dal were perched on the stairway at Central Hall protesting the visit of the US President. With fists clenched, they took imaginary punches at Bush, who they described as the "biggest killer on earth", and stalled the morning session of the Lok Sabha. Manmohan will also have to handle resistance from within his own party, and he had once joked with US interlocutors that, "I have my own Congress to face".

ON A ROLL
  PICTURE SPEAK
FOR HIM WHO BELIEVED NOT IN WAR: Bush with wife Laura at Rajghat
AN EXTENDED RED CARPET: India pulled out all the stops to welcome George W. Bush. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh broke protocol and received him at the airport. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam hosted a banquet for him in the sprawling Mughal Gardens and had Rashtrapati Bhawan lit up. The navy band specially played the Michael Jackson number We are the World.

DUBYA'S CHARMS: At the lunch hosted by Manmohan, Bush went around each table, shook hands with all the guests and charmed them with his informality. He was free with his hugs and that included the hotel staff waiting on him.

OFFICER DOGS: The 17 German Shepherds and Labradors of the K-9 unit of the presidential security detail have each been allotted a $200-a-night hotel room and referred to by rank, not breed-sergeant major, lieutenants and second lieutenants.

OH! TAJ: Bush conceded he couldn't take Laura to see the Taj Mahal and was gently chided for this by Manmohan over lunch.

The Prime Minister, though, was convinced that the deal was, as an aide put it, "India's best chance in a generation to get out of the sanctions box. So, it was the right call to take". He laid out a strategy that would get the backing of not just his party and its allies but also stave off criticism from the BJP that he was compromising the country's strategic interests.

Days before the summit, he surprised US negotiators by briefing Parliament that India had decided to place 65 per cent of the country's 22 reactors under international safeguards. He then firmly said the fast breeder reactors would not be on the civilian list, something India's nuclear establishment had been vociferously demanding and even showed open defiance about in recent weeks. The US negotiators expressed unhappiness over Manmohan making such a firm declaration before the deal was finalised and it was left to Narayanan to explain to them that the Prime Minister was convinced he could not enter into a deal unless the party and the people were behind it.

  PICTURE SPEAK
SEEING RED: Left activists raise the decibel in an anti-Bush rally in Delhi
Bush, too, had to mow down resistance coming not only from the Ayatollahs of non-proliferation, who had carried out an elaborate public campaign against the deal, but also from his own administration. Many of them had balked at the idea of giving India a unique status and feared that it would lead to the unravelling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that has 180 members on board.

But Bush, as an aide revealed, was adamant. His approach was simple: The deal was good for both countries. It was mutually beneficial. Energy is a key concern for both nations. India and China have begun to compete with the US for dwindling oil resources, resulting in prices shooting up to debilitating levels. A big way out would be to assist India with civilian nuclear technology to meet part of its energy demand with renewable fuels and ease the pressure. For India, the deal would be a tacit recognition that it was a nuclear weapons power apart from ending decades of isolation. It would also result in the dismantling of the technology denial regime set up by the US and enable it to have access to critical hi-tech knowhow.

THE SEPARATION PLAN
How India may separate its civil and military facilities
KOTA: Four reactors generate 740 MW, two more under construction

KAKRAPAR: Two reactors generate 220 MW each, two more under construction

TARAPUR: Three reactors generate 860 MW total, one more under construction

KAIGA: Two reactors generate 220 MW each, two more under construction

NARORA: Two reactors generate 220 MW each

MUMBAI: Two reactors producing weaponsgrade plutonium

KALPAKKAM: Two reactors generate 220 MW plus a prototype fast breeder reactor
KUDANKULAM: Two reactors generate 1,000 MW each, two more proposed
PLAN 2014
India must separate 14 civil and 8 military nuclear reactors by 2014

IAEA to work out India-specific safeguards

India has right to designate future reactors as civilian

US laws will be amended for Indian N-deal

The main concern for Bush's negotiating team was, as one of them put it, "not so much about item A and B, but how to make out a case for the Congress to make the amendments". US negotiators were stunned by the flak coming from India's nuclear establishment as the negotiations reached a critical mass. They now deny that the fast breeder reactors were ever a make or break point for the negotiations and say that "half the things that were put out saying that this was what the US was demanding of India was just not true". Frustrated at one point by the seeming Indian intransigence, a senior official approached Bush and began talking about the problems. But the US President is reported to have told him: "Stop right there. I am not going to get into a discussion with this. Don't tell me why it can't be done. Just do it."

THE OTHER DEALS
TRADE & INVESTMENTS: The CEO Forum sets target to double trade by 2009, hold an investment summit and facilitate FDI.

AGRICULTURE: Three-year financial commitment to support agricultural education and share research.

CLEAN COAL: Joint efforts for clean coal zero emission project, develop tech to reduce fossil fuel dependence.

R & D: To generate collaborative partnerships in science and technology and IPR regulation.

LOGISTICS SUPPORT AGREEMENT: To protect free flow of commerce and safety of navigation.
FISSION FACTS
65% or 4,375 MW of installed capacity to be open to international inspection
35% or 2,355 MW of installed capacity to be kept for military use
REACTORS THAT MAY COME UNDER SAFEGUARDS
PROPOSED MILITARY REACTORS

Both the leaders had told their negotiators to "be flexible". But despite an intense round of negotiations, that saw US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns fly down to sew the deal before the President arrived, there were "several loose ends to be tied up". In a cliffhanger that went like one-day cricket "right down to the wire", as Narayanan put it, the negotiations continued even as the President's flight took off from Washington, DC. Narayanan was woken up by Stephen Hadley, his US counterpart who was on board the flight, at five on Wednesday morning, saying: "We still need to work out some things."

 

After his arrival, the two teams worked through the night to sort out the differences. One of the major hurdles was, as one negotiator described it: "The ghost of Tarapur stalking the room." Tarapur was a reactor that India had built with US collaboration in 1969 with an agreement that it would have assured fuel supply from America. But after the 1974 nuclear tests, the US initially denied India fuel supply and then made it sweat every time it ran out of fuel. The US has put into the current deal several insurances that would prevent such a recurrence.

The other major concern expressed by scientists was the question of safeguards being in perpetuity for the reactors designated as civilian. They wanted the safeguards to be conditional. But US negotiators put their foot down and said they would not be able to sell it to the Congress or to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (a loose grouping of nations set up to ensure that the sale of civilian nuclear technology only went to NPT signatories). Manmohan discussed the issue at the Cabinet Committee of Parliamentary Affairs (CCPA) meeting to endorse the deal before Bush arrived. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram pointed out that if India withdrew from a safeguards regime, no country would supply it fuel and the reactors, in effect, would be useless. So, it made sense to accept such safeguards but ensure there are guarantees that the fuel supply would not be disrupted. With that out of the way, the negotiators closed the deal. When the other ministers were present in the summit meeting with Bush, Manmohan turned to a Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), and asked him to speak. A surprised Kakodkar told the delegation: "We think it's a good agreement." To which, Bush shot back: "I am glad you liked it."

Weighty nuclear experts like R. Chidambaram, a former AEC chief and principal scientific adviser to the government, says: "Overall, the agreement is good. Our strategic programme is unaffected and so is our advanced research and development programmes like fast breeder reactors. And, it would also take care of our interests in the poor sectors." But in the days ahead, Manmohan would have to answer questions from the Left and the BJP. Brajesh Mishra, former national security adviser, says: "There are legitimate concerns that remain unanswered so far. These include whether the scientists are satisfied that they can retain India's strategic programme both for now and future needs. And, we also need to know what kind of guarantees have been given to ensure uninterrupted supply of fuel to our civilian reactors."

With the deal all but done, the visit also saw a vast array of activities on the agenda that would "transform relations between the two countries" and usher in a whole new era of global partnership on a range of issues. While India will be on board the futuregen clean energy initiative, the two sides have launched a major agriculture initiative. Also on the agreements list is a decision to establish a bi-national science and technology endowment fund and joint commission.

The major gain will be in trade relations that have boomed in recent times. The CEO Forum, headed by Ratan Tata, chairman, Tata Group, put forth six pre-identified recommendations on issues such as intellectual property, development of human capital, infrastructure, R&D and technology. "When implemented, they'll make a difference to the lives of our people," Bush said. If all goes well, that would be the true benefit of the brave new relationship between India and the US.

-With Puja Mehra, Priya Sahgal, Sandeep Unnithan

 RELATED STORIES

Indo-US Relations: PM’s Visit – Big Step Forward

Indo-US Relations: Energy - The Nuclear Fallout

 

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MARCH 13, 2006
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