PICTURE SPEAK

ROAD SHOW: Karunanidhi (centre) and Maran (left) at an election rally

Earlier in the day, surrounded by a massive crowd at the Chennai Collectorate, the leader of the Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) filed his nomination, hoping for a hattrick of wins from the Chepauk constituency. Accompanied by Union ministers Dayanidhi Maran and T.R. Baalu, Karunanidhi appeared confident as his party-workers tried desperately to make room for the four-time chief minister. The same day, not far from Chepauk, Karunanidhi's son and DMK Deputy General Secretary M.K. Stalin also filed his papers from the Thousand Lights constituency.

PICTURE SPEAK

RAINBOW COALITION: The DMK-PMK-Congress-Left-Muslim League tie-up makes it a formidable alliance

With some opinion polls predicting a slender advantage for Jayalalithaa, DMK allies too have upped the ante. According to an opinion poll conducted by a TV channel, Jayalalithaa has a 2 per cent advantage in terms of vote-share over Karunanidhi.

Congress leaders and Union ministers P. Chidambaram, Elangovan and G.K. Vasan are camping in the state and so is Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) chief S. Ramadoss to drum up support. At a meeting in Chennai, finance minister Chidambaram charged the AIADMK with undermining democracy and legislative practices. "They passed 15 bills in 15 minutes," he said and urged people to elect a government that "co-operates with the Centre". The Congress, however, is facing dissent from within, with some rebels deciding to contest in constituencies allotted to allies.

The DMK's manifesto has generated much debate in this election and the politics of rice has already had its impact. In response to the party's offer of Rs 2 per kg, the AIADMK has presented a counter-offer: 10 kg free rice for every 10 kg purchased. Ramadoss calls it "a sedative-laced biscuit". Actor Vijaykanth of the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) has chipped in with an assurance of 15 kg of rice free. Not to be outdone, the DMK has now come up with the offer of free colour TV sets. The economic impact of such promises, if implemented, will be marginal, says V. Chandrasekara Naidu, associate professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies, adding, "The real problem will be implementation as siphoning off could defeat the purpose."

BALLOT BOUNTY

Dirt-cheap rice, free gas stoves, stipends for unemployed youth and free colour TV sets. These are just some of the freebies on offer in the DMK manifesto. "But will Karunanidhi give free cable connections also?" asks MDMK's Vaiko in an obvious reference to the DMK's family-owned cable network. With Jayalalithaa calling for an end to the artificial increase in PDS rice prices, the AIADMK has promised a flood of money for the victims of the unprecedented downpour-Rs 1,000 in villages and Rs 2,000 in Chennai. Not to be left behind, Vijaykanth has promised 15 kg of free rice and Rs 500 for poor children for three years. The DMK's answer to this: two acres of land to every landless family and free power to farmers. It has also promised a monthly maternity allowance of Rs 1,000 for poor women. The icing on the cake: a Salem-based party, which calls itself the "One Rupee Party", has promised free cable connections with colour TVs, gas stoves, gas cylinders, tea and liquor.

At an election rally in Chennai, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) chief Vaiko took a dig at Chidambaram's backing of the DMK's offers. He asked if subsidised rice would indeed be provided throughout the country. The real surprise is Vijaykanth. Captain, as he is popularly called, is contesting from the Vriddhachalam and his party has fielded candidates in almost all constituencies. Experts, however, believe that Vaiko and Vijaykanth may only be successful in cutting into the votes of the DMK and AIADMK alliances, and may end up with only a handful of seats.

Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, has kept her campaign relatively low key. She described Karunanidhi's promise of distributing 50 lakh acres of wasteland as "misleading", pointing out that the land was not in the government's possession. Spending a considerable time in her constituency Andipatti last week, she met actor Sarath Kumar, who quit the DMK to join the AIADMK.

One of the key deciding factors in this poll could be rural votes. "The DMK is strong in urban areas, while the AIADMK has traditionally banked on the rural vote," says historian K. Rajayyan. Adds M. Swamy, a teacher at a village near Tenkasi: "The rural people will face a tough choice: whether to vote against the callous attitude of Jayalalithaa in her first three years of governance, or for its performance in the last two years."

Maybe it is the consumer lurking within the voter who'll decide. As a tea shop owner in Chennai says, "We got free bicycles during Jayalalithaa's tenure, so why not go for Karunanidhi's colour TVs this time?"