CURRENT ISSUE MAY 22, 2006

PICTURE SPEAK

POWER SHIFT: (From left) Sonia, Achuthanandan, Buddhadeb and Karunanidhi

Then what is it that the Congress is celebrating about? It can't be about Assam where, though there is no definitive gainer, the Congress is the least scarred winner. Oh yes, there is Rae Bareli-and another "historic" victory. In an organisation where the Leader is larger than (the party's) life, Sonia Gandhi's massive victory in the family constituency has to be big compensation for other expected losses. It is an admirable spin, and only the Congress can do it in a worst case scenario like this: when in disaster, find a spectacular deviation. Thursday afternoon, even before the Election Commission formally announced the results, the Congress was trying hard to sound brave. By any stretch of fantasy, Rae Bareli cannot be an alternative to the lost government in Kerala, the lost majority in Assam, the diminished performance in Bengal and the marginal gain in Tamil Nadu.

Sycophancy, though, can't bury the paradox: the UPA gets stronger as the Congress sinks. "The prophets of doom had predicted that the alliance would be wiped out but that did not happen," said Sonia. "This is a victory for the UPA and the secular parties," said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. "It is precisely due to the credible performance of the UPA Government. In these elections either an ally or a constituent of the UPA has won. None of the foes of the UPA gained anywhere," said Finance Minister P. Chidambaram. They have missed-or ignored-the crucial point: the allies won at the cost of the Congress. This certainly isn't good news for the Congress. Prominence now will become imprisonment. The CPI(M) will accelerate its nuisance value at the Centre. More power to the apparatchiks of AKG Bhavan means more irresponsible veto power. Politburo member Sitaram Yechury has already issued the red alert: "The Left's influence on the UPA alliance is bound to increase." Deviate from the economic policies spelt out in the CMP at your own peril-the comrades have repeatedly told the Congress. The rising red power found colour on the stock market. On Thursday, it was all red through the day as the BSE Sensex dipped 177 points reflecting concerns about a slowdown in critical reforms. The market worries that the promised initiatives in banking, insurance and power as also the passing of the long pending bill to establish the pension regulatory authority are vulnerable to lal salaam. Once the celebrations are over, partners will turn more demanding. The DMK has won this election mostly on the strength of its promises. Karunanidhi can keep them only by pressuring the Centre to subsidise the state budget.

Alarmingly for India's Grand Old Party, it is fast becoming less pan-Indian. Today it keeps a semblance of national presence because of the magnanimity of regional parties. No life in Bihar without Lalu Prasad Yadav, in Maharashtra without Sharad Pawar, in Karnataka without Deve Gowda and in Uttar Pradesh without Mayawati. The party is losing its traditional social bases across the states. Certainly, it is not the most favoured party of Indian Muslims. In the next 12 months, the party will have to face elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. It is in power in the last three, where popular disenchantment with governance is already apparent. In Uttar Pradesh, it can hope to retain its 25 seats in the Assembly of 402 only with the benevolence of a volatile Mayawati. And it has lost many major states in the last few years.

As the Leader rises, leaders wither away. The Congress doesn't have charismatic grassroots leaders in the states. Or they are not allowed to grow. As the national party becomes less national, regional forces will grow in their influence and reach. The age of multicolour federalism is in. If the hues of red, pink, saffron, black and green dazzle the Indian voter, call it the united colours of India in its diversity.

-with bureau reports

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