PICTURE SPEAK

SHARING TO SURVIVE: Coalitions have become essential for the Congress

The mighty Dravidian party, DMK, has also been forced to form a minority government with the Congress's support. Four of the five states that went to the polls last month have thrown up coalitions. Ten years ago less than four states in the country were under coalition rule. For the Congress it seems to be the only route to survival and for the BJP, the route to expansion.

While there are six recognised national parties, the number of recognised state parties has risen from 23 a decade ago to 55 at last count by the Election Commission (EC) in March 2006. The number of registered regional parties with the EC stands at a staggering 781. There is no end to political aspirations as sundry tailors in Lucknow and barbers in Varanasi compete with the regionally ambitious Ram Vilas Paswans, Vijaykanths and Uma Bharatis. There are Dalit parties, OBC parties, Brahmin parties and leagues of Muslims. From those who want Telangana and Vidarbha to those who promise rozi-roti, there is no dearth of causes or people eager to deliver. There is a party in virtually every district in the country.

Though the era of multi-party rule really began in 1967, in the '90s Uttar Pradesh sent a dire message to both the Congress and the BJP. From 17.6 per cent of votes and 46 Assembly seats in 1991, the Congress's share came down to about 8 per cent and 25 seats in 2002. In the same period, the BJP slid from 32 per cent of votes and 221 seats to 21 per cent and 88 seats, while the Samajwadi Party grew from 10 per cent of votes to 26.2 per cent and Mayawati's BSP managed to increase its vote share from 9.1 per cent to 23.06 per cent.

The Muslim-Yadav formation of the original Lohiaites-Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav-might now be under stress. Paswan, with his LJP, managed to wean some Muslims away while some have turned towards the BSP. And now a Muslim cleric, Kalbe Javvad, has launched the People's Democratic Front (PDF) in Uttar Pradesh, finding inspiration in the Assam United Democratic Front, which won 10 seats in Assam within six months of its formation. "Muslims now want their fair share of power and we are unwilling to tag along with formations which have delivered nothing to us in more than 50 years," he says.

Congress General Secretary Mukul Wasnik says, "Nothing is sacrosanct anymore. Deve Gowda's Janata Dal is specifically called Secular to distinguish it from the JD(U), and it has the BJP as its coalition partner in Karnataka." The Congress itself has aligned with the Bodo People's Progressive Front in Assam, the RJD in Bihar, the PDP in Kashmir, the TRS in Andhra Pradesh and the DMK in Tamil Nadu. All these are the parties it did not agree with once.

Coalitions do not necessarily help national parties. As a junior partner to the RJD in Bihar, the Congress has lost not only its mass base but also its party infrastructure in districts where it no longer contests. The BJP has not grown in Tamil Nadu as junior partner to the AIADMK. The CPI(M) has not achieved more than a 33 per cent vote share in West Bengal. "Regional parties today are playing a national role. They effectively support governments at the Centre while meeting aspirations of the states they represent," says D. Raja, national secretary, CPI. It seems even personalities will not have a deterrent effect on the trend. So Rahul Gandhi may not miraculously change the fortunes of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP is unlikely to repeat its "Abki Bari Atal Bihari" appeal with someone other than Atal. Slogans are going to have more local flavor.
-with Farzand Ahmed, Satarupa Bhattacharjya, Stephen David and Lakshmi Subramanian

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