| From atop the 13,600-ft high windswept crest of a steep, serrated ridge, the Samudra Tapu glacier is a giant blanket of ice and snow, covering the bowl-shaped valley between jagged Himalayan peaks in the wilderness of Himachal Pradesh. Gleaming against an azure sky, the gigantic glacier-the second biggest in the Lahaul-Spiti region of the state and the main source of the Chandra river-is enthrallingly picturesque. However, for glaciologist Anil V. Kulkarni and his team of researchers from the Indian Space Research Organisation's (isro) Space Application Centre (sac), there is no time to soak up the spectacular sight. Before the gusty winds turn freezing and ferocious at a velocity of 150-km per hour by the early afternoon, they have to do what they are here for: mapping the retreat of the Samudra Tapu. After an excruciatingly arduous four-hour steep climb on the craggy ridges from their base camp, armed with satellite images and a bevy of sophisticated equipment, including the ground penetrating radar, they perch themselves precariously on the mountain ridge overlooking the 16-km-long glacier's debris-covered snout. Even to Kulkarni's naked eye, the glacial meltdown was obvious from what they had measured in 2004. As the day progresses, the instruments confirm his worst fears: the glacier has receded by more than 30 m in two years. Since 1960-the earliest available measurement of the size of the glacier-Samudra Tapu has receded by almost 800 m.  IN 40 YEARS, KEY HIMALAYAN GLACIERS HAVE SHRUNK BY 21% | | AS THE RATE QUICKENS, HYDRO-POWER WILL BE BADLY HIT | | FOOD CROPS WILL FACE CATASTROPHIC WATER SHORTAGE | | WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE IRREVOCABLY ALTERED | | CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER
1998
2003
DISTURBING FIND: Field investigations revealed that in just five years, the Chhota Shigri glacier had receded by 800 m | | THE HIMALAYAS, home to about 9,000 glaciers-one of the largest
concentration of frozen fresh water outside the Polar regions-are the most understudied. Considered the thermometer of global warming, glacial melt is difficult to track. But a recent study of 466 Himalayan glaciers by an ISRO Space Application Centre team (below) using satellite images and ground investigations shows how rapidly they are receding. | | For Kulkarni and his team, it is the proverbial tip of the iceberg. For over a decade now they have been engaged in India's biggest ever programme to map and monitor the Himalayan glaciers. They have surveyed over 466 such glaciers in Himachal Pradesh, which account for a major chunk of the total Himalayan glaciers located in India, and their findings are truly alarming. Shared exclusively with india today, the sac survey has established that smaller glaciers are feeling the impact of global warming the most, showing maximum retreat from the middle of last century-much higher than what glaciologists had predicted or known earlier. As many as 127 glaciers of less than 1 sq km size have lost 38 per cent of their geographical area since 1962. Larger glaciers, which are progressively getting fragmented, have receded by as much as 12 per cent. Time-series investigations have revealed an overall reduction in glaciers in the region from 2,077 sq km to 1,628 sq km-an overall deglaciation of 21 per cent in four decades. However, while the total glaciated area has reduced, the number of glaciers has gone up as the big glaciers are fragmenting into smaller ones. The first-time mapping of glacier-fragmentation, both by satellite and terrestrial monitoring, has conclusively capped an enduring controversy in the Indian glaciological circles about the number of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas-now reckoned as a dynamic inventory. Earlier, the remote sensing technique was pegging the number of glaciers higher as compared to the Geological Survey of India which employed a different methodology. Reckoned as the thermometer of global warming, the glaciers throughout the world are in a melt mode. The Himalayan glaciers, one of the largest concentrations of glacial ice outside the Polar region, are known to have receded substantially since the second half of last century. The sac study has for the first time conclusively demonstrated that the Himalayan glaciers are also retreating due to climatic variations. R.K. Pachauri, chairman of The Energy and Resources Institute (teri) and director-general of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc), says, "Any evidence that glaciers are melting is a warning bell. We are seeing the phenomenon across the globe-the Arctics, the Andes, the Alps and now the Himalayas. It's likely to severely alter India's fresh water balance and adversely impact food and energy production." THE GLOBAL WARNING
It is finally on us. Global warming and its devastating effects are being increasingly felt across the globe, sending environmentalists and scientists scrambling for ways to check environment pollution and stem the damage. | | Vehicular pollution
Burning of fossil fuels spew excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere causing temperatures to rise. | | What is Global warming?
Atmospheric gases like carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane in the atmosphere effectively trap the heat from the sun and keep the earth warm. But in excess, these gases cause a catastrophic rise in global temperatures. industrial emission Carbon emission from burning coal in industrial operations add to the greenhouse effect.
| DISAPPEARING GREENS
Trees are carbon sinks and deforestation upsets the balance. With less green cover, soils retain more heat and droughts soon follow. | NO ICE SHIELD
Ice caps on mountains and glaciers to a large extent help deflect the heat of the sun. But with glaciers receding, the heat stays trapped close to the soil. | VITAL STATS
Global CO2 loads
(emissions in billions of metric tonnes)
Total from fossil fuels
From consumption
of liquid fuels
From consumption
of solid fuels
From consumption
of gas fuels | GLOBAL AVERAGE SEA LEVEL RISE
(in metres)
Ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica are rapidly melting, resulting in rising sea levels, posing serious threat to inhabitants of low-lying areas. | MERCURY RISING
Global annual average
temperature and projections
(in Celsius)
14.43º
Actual temperatures
Range of temperature projection | | While earlier global warming was greeted with scepticism, mounting evidence of its impact and also the freaky weather changes the world has been experiencing in recent years, has made the threat real and urgent. The ipcc's own evaluation predicts that average world temperature would rise by 1.4 degree Celsius to 5.8 degree Celsius by the end of this century. Such a rise would upset the environmental balance and have catastrophic consequences. While many island countries like Maldives and Bangladesh would lose much of their land to the rising oceans, dramatic altering of climate patterns could turn fertile areas into drought-prone zones and increase natural calamities such as floods, hurricanes and typhoons (see graphic). THE GREENHOUSE DAMAGE
WINTER SUMMER MELTING ICE CAPS AT POLES The Antarctic holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by more than 200 ft. Now, consider this: if the ice sheet over Greenland melts, it could raise sea levels by 20 ft, enough to swallow most of Bangladesh and threaten India's coastal regions. | | RISING SEA LEVEL
Rapidly melting glaciers will raise sea levels, causing widespread floods and inundation of low-lying areas. As land gets swallowed by sea water, displacing people from their homes, it will strain the natural resources. | | POWER SHORTAGES
If glaciers continue to shrink, perennial mountain streams will turn seasonal and water in rivers will be drastically reduced, thereby disrupting power generation.t.
| FOOD CRISIS
With climate patterns changing, the water balance is disrupted leading to droughts in traditionally fertile zones. Agricultural production, especially food grains, would be badly hit. | | For India, the melting glaciers can create a havoc. "Even a slight increase in global warming would turn the seemingly apocalyptic predictions into reality by the middle of this century," says Syed Iqbal Hasnain, glaciologist and vice-chancellor of the University of Calicut. In his paper published in the May 8, 2004 issue of the New Scientist magazine, Hasnain predicts that most of the Himalayan glaciers would disappear in the next four decades. That would be nothing short of disaster. In the Indian Himalayas, the glaciers cover approximately 23,000 sq km area-one of the largest concentrations of glacier-stored fresh water apart from the Polar region. It is estimated that 30 to 50 per cent of the total annual water outlay of almost all the major rivers of northern India is provided by snow and glacier melt run. The Bhakra Nangal dam reservoir gets 50 to 60 per cent of its water from the glaciers. Healthy glaciers act as a sort of buffer for distress situations like drought. "Glaciers are like fixed bank deposits," says Kulkarni. The first to feel the impact in the country would be the glacier-basin states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, where the hill populace live close to and are dependent on the small glaciers. More critically, the stream run-off pattern portends a profound downstream effect on various human enterprises, including the hydro-power generation projects, both existing and those under construction, which form the lifeline of the Indian economy. Himachal Pradesh, for instance, has pegged its hydro-power potential at 20,386 MW, of which 6,183 MW has been actualised while plans are afoot to tap another 8,000 MW by 2010. But the worrying trends of glacial retreat in its main basins threaten to jeopardise hydro-electric generation in the long run. "The depleting glaciers are not a worry of today but certainly of tomorrow," says R.K. Sood, director of environment planning at the State Council for Science and Technology. While the rapid retreat has begun manifesting itself in an increased glacier run-off in both summer and winter, this would be a temporary luxury. From the mid-1960s, the rivers originating from the Himalayas have shown almost 30 per cent increase in run-off in winter-a clear sign of heightened glacier melting due to global warming. Sooner or later, it would reduce and alter the hydrology of the mountain slopes and pastures. As Kulkarni says, "The downstream effect of glacier meltdown is like diabetes; catching up slowly but surely." Downstream, the enormity of the prediction of retreating glaciers translates into a severe shortage of fresh water. Already, north India is plagued by water stress due to increasing demand from the domestic, agriculture and industrial sectors, brought on by rapid urbanisation. Any reduction in the availability of fresh water could adversely affect food production, industrial growth, people's livelihood and environmental sustainability. So, when Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh says his state could well turn into a desert, it's not political rhetoric over river water sharing dispute with the neighbouring state. With the groundwater table falling alarmingly, India has reasons to be worried over the receding glaciers which feed its canal system, so crucial to its agriculture. The real problem for India is governmental apathy. Pachauri says, "Every major agency or government department seems to be in a state of denial over global warming." The Indian Meteorology Department has so far not come out with any major research over regional climate changes that could have a serious impact. Only recently, the Ministry of Environment and Forests teamed up with isro to launch an ambitious follow-up programme to study Himalayan snow and glaciers in the next four years. The Rs 20-crore project would focus on 1,000 glaciers falling in 10 river basins in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttaranchal and Sikkim. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture has made predictions about how the depleting water balance or increasingly erratic rainfall pattern could impact yields, consequently affecting food sufficiency. ISRO's study is the first clear proof that the situation is rapidly getting out of hand. As Pachauri says, "The melting of the Himalayan glaciers is a grim portent India and the world can ignore only to their own peril." Index
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